[ { "match_id": "3cb0a9280c5373da", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:00:00", "match": "DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RESERVE vs AT RAFAELA RESERVE", "league": "Liga Profesional, Reserves", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7856", "prediction_odds": "1.41", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.7092", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.27", "prediction_edge_pct": "7.63", "prediction_ev": "0.1076", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.600114", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.600114", "draw_probability_raw": "0.220541", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.220541", "direction_gap": "0.379573", "outlook_direction_score": "0.429813", "draw_risk_score": "0.268451", "draw_resistance_score": "0.720916", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.28085", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.6001", "draw_prob": "0.2205", "away_win_prob": "0.1793", "home_odds": "1.6", "draw_odds": "3.45", "away_odds": "4.9", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.613877", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.205466", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.180658", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.600114", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.220541", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.179345", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.600114", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.220541", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.179345", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.0801", "expected_away_goals": "1.0361", "expected_total_goals": "3.1162", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.0801", "away_goal_lambda": "1.0361", "match_goal_lambda": "3.1162", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0994", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1249", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.3548", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.1162", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.494", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.494", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.671665", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.671665", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.754,recent_scoring_conceding:0.481,form_momentum:0.386", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.86", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.181", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8751", "home_prob_2plus": "0.6152", "home_prob_3plus": "0.345", "away_prob_1plus": "0.6452", "away_prob_2plus": "0.2775", "away_prob_3plus": "0.0871", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8175", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6023", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3788", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.1162", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8175", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6023", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3788", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.5654", "direction_abs_score": "0.5654", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.8997", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.9366", "direction_team_edge": "0.7569", "direction_xg_edge": "0.7229", "direction_form_edge": "-0.5029", "direction_defence_edge": "0.1362", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.61897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5646", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7025", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.2124", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.683", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.7", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7057", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.4981", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.0801", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.0361", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.1162", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "1.044", "losing_pick_risk_score": "1", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_scoring_consistency", "probability_raw": "0.8175", "probability": "0.7856", "confidence_model": "0.6854", "performance_confidence": "0.7856", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.4968", "confidence_gate": "0.7856", "model_conf_raw": "0.6854", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7856", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7856", "confidence": "0.7856", "market_performance_confidence": "0.762569", "market_performance_score": "76.26", "market_performance_score_base": "76.26", "market_confidence_band": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "0.64", "confidence_route_component": "0.76", "confidence_environment_component": "0.78056", "confidence_safety_component": "0.872286", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "1.0", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 64%; route 76%; environment 78%; safety 87%; probability 100%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "VALUE", "odds": "1.41", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.7092", "edge_p": "0.0763", "edge_pct": "7.63", "ev": "0.1076", "quant_shape_score": "0.643328", "quant_ev": "0.107645", "quant_score": "0.675773", "prematch_data_score": "0.55", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.778", "historical_risk_score": "0.262", "historical_net_score": "0.66", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.233", "best_goal_market_support": "0.774", "market_history_support": "0.774", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.989", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.7", "combined_over35_rate": "0.3", "combined_btts_rate": "0.7", "ou15_history_support": "0.774", "ou25_history_support": "0.639", "ou35_history_support": "0.216", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.715", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.736", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.652", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.447", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.394", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3312", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|low_trust_league_cap|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.27", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RESERVE vs AT RAFAELA RESERVE: Over 1.5 @ 1.41\nOUTLOOK — DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RESERVE 2.08 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | AT RAFAELA RESERVE 1.04 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.12 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (LAMBDA_DIRECTION_UNCONFIRMED).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.12 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 2-0, 1-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — LOW-MEDIUM. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.7244", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.971", "dom_live_index": "0.971", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.874", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.431", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.481", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.403", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3207", "h2h_goals_avg": "6.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.181", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "0.8611", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6297", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6852", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.8238", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.8874", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "0.9226", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.81", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.8874", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "0.9226", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.81", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.0801", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.0361", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.1162", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1927", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1135", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3062", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.848535", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.56266", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.602516", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.235797", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.770619", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.532927", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.310288", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.097/0.942)", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.86;history_piecewise_offset=+0.181", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 1, 4, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 2, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[4, 2, 2, 1, 0]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 3, 1, 2, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 1, 4, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 2, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[4, 2, 2, 1, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 3, 1, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.8", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.356", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.327", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.444", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.681", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.632", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.8", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.8", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.696", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.774", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.496", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.639", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.3", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RESERVE", "away_team": "AT RAFAELA RESERVE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.219", "away_attack_ratio": "0.744", "home_defense_ratio": "1.153", "away_defense_ratio": "0.887", "home_form_ratio": "0.948", "away_form_ratio": 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"safer_market_available": "OU OVER 1.5", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "0.29078", "market_portfolio_score": "0.578376", "prob": "0.7856", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.8113", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.8104", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.443", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.4025", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.8108", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.443", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.1912", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "1.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.3418", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half estimate is unvalidated and is not used to promote this full-time pick.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "MARKET_CONFIDENCE_VALUE", "terminal_approved_route": "1.0", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "CORE_RELIABILITY", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.7856", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.762569", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.41", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.29078", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.8053", "current_performance_value_score": "0.696543", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.8", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.2", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.2", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "0.1894", "current_performance_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "2.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.5", "league_history_roi": "0.4", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "SMALL_SAMPLE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.6023,btts_xg=0.7057,odds=1.41)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.6023,btts_xg=0.7057,odds=1.41)", "ticket_use": "STRONG VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "STRONG", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Strong separate-ticket candidate", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "QUALIFIED_RELIABILITY", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.2907801418439716", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5540661379432623", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.762569", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.2", "away_blank_risk": "0.14", "max_blank_risk": "0.2", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.4981", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.8", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.1825", "p_total_le2": "0.3977", "p_exactly2": "0.2152", "winner_quality_score": "0.6252", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6299", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.8016", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.8", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.4605", "winner_consistency_score": "0.1983", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7836", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.6928", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.709834", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.717382", "winning_chance_score": "0.67621", "value_opportunity_score": "0.595223", "winning_chance_rank": "12", "value_opportunity_rank": "26", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.6023,btts_xg=0.7057,odds=1.41)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "STRONG", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "LOW-MEDIUM", "ticket_short_why": "Strong prediction quality with attractive value", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=STRONG; final_quality=STRONG; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.786; conf=0.786; quant=0.676; winner_quality=0.630; reliability=0.710; variance=0.321; hist_net=0.660; hist_risk=0.262; support=0.774; warnings=1/0/0; lose_risk=1; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.6023,btts_xg=0.7057,odds=1.41); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.685022", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.542871", "publication_rank_score": "0.64522", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "9", "publication_value_rank": "12", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "STRONG", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.762569", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 + market profile + validated combination + model probability >=70%.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.685022", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.41. | TICKET — live use STRONG VALUE; quality STRONG; risk LOW-MEDIUM; reliability role STRONG; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 79%; reliability score 69%; profile similarity 76/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RESERVE 2.08 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.89), AT RAFAELA RESERVE 1.04 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 0.92), match 3.12 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA RESERVE 1+ 88% / 2+ 62%; AT RAFAELA RESERVE 1+ 65% / 2+ 28%. Match: 2+ 82%, 3+ 60%, 4+ 38%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 63%; recent O1.5 support 80%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 + market profile + validated combination + model probability >=70%. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 69% (MODERATE). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — exact OU OVER 1.5 sample is not established; overall Liga Profesional, Reserves CTM record is 2 settled picks at 50% (ROI +40.0%). | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 54%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / STRONG / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Evidence-value score 70%, historical profile 76%, price-value index 29%. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.1162", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.1162", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.0361", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.099355437838705", "v65_central_score": "2-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.0801", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0729049497672139", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0786531732418525", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "130", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-0, 1-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.29077859605045", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.0801", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.0361", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "STRONG", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "STRONG", "ticket_use_internal": "STRONG VALUE", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "7331a35173a18144", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "BURTON ALBION vs BRADFORD", "league": "LEAGUE ONE", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7409", "prediction_odds": "1.49", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6711", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.35", "prediction_edge_pct": "6.98", "prediction_ev": "0.104", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.423019", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.423019", "draw_probability_raw": "0.265735", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.265735", "direction_gap": "0.111773", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.216671", "draw_risk_score": "0.516357", "draw_resistance_score": "0.314955", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.408518", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.3112", "draw_prob": "0.2657", "away_win_prob": "0.423", "home_odds": "3.55", "draw_odds": "3.15", "away_odds": "2.0", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.302847", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.253142", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.444012", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.311246", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.265735", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.423019", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.311246", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.265735", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.423019", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.2094", "expected_away_goals": "1.5183", "expected_total_goals": "2.7277", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.2094", "away_goal_lambda": "1.5183", "match_goal_lambda": "2.7277", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.12", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2984", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2191", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.7276", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.193", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.194", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.406649", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.453324", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.360,recent_scoring_conceding:0.491,form_momentum:0.598", "lambda_direction_resolution": "dampened_medium_gap:0.43", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.115", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7016", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3408", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1226", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7809", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4483", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1958", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7563", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5131", "match_prob_4plus": "0.292", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.7277", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7563", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5131", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.292", "ou25_probability_band": "borderline", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.4067", "direction_abs_score": "0.4067", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.8714", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.7177", "direction_team_edge": "-0.5832", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.5211", "direction_form_edge": "0.3192", "direction_defence_edge": "0.2797", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.77301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5479", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6373", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.0141", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.5568", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7007", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.7966", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.2094", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.5183", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.7276", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.3089", "losing_pick_risk_score": "1", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_tempo", "probability_raw": "0.7563", "probability": "0.7409", "confidence_model": "0.689", "performance_confidence": "0.7409", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.3", "confidence_gate": "0.7409", "model_conf_raw": "0.689", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7409", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7409", "confidence": "0.7409", "market_performance_confidence": "0.416884", "market_performance_score": "41.69", "market_performance_score_base": "41.69", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.271429", "confidence_route_component": "0.398571", "confidence_environment_component": "0.475827", "confidence_safety_component": "0.482857", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.881515", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 27%; route 40%; environment 48%; safety 48%; probability 88%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.49", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6711", "edge_p": "0.0698", "edge_pct": "6.98", "ev": "0.104", "quant_shape_score": "0.616123", "quant_ev": "0.104014", "quant_score": "0.609924", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.799", "historical_risk_score": "0.174", "historical_net_score": "0.72", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.531", "best_goal_market_support": "0.681", "market_history_support": "0.645", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.986", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.4", "combined_over35_rate": "0.1", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.645", "ou25_history_support": "0.364", "ou35_history_support": "0.072", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.611", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.56", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.681", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.225", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.326", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.425", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.35", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — BURTON ALBION vs BRADFORD: Over 1.5 @ 1.49\nOUTLOOK — BURTON ALBION 1.21 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | BRADFORD 1.52 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 2.73 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — BRADFORD is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.73 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 0-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8608", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.467", "dom_live_index": "0.467", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.388", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.124", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.18", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.125", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3063", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.915", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.662", "h2h_confidence": "0.817", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "10", "selection_regime_fit": "0.625", "selection_regime_ok": "0", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_miss:min_conf<0.42,min_tempo<0.45,min_quality<0.42", "selection_value_boost": "0.4763", "raw_expected_home_goals": "0.9345", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.3636", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.1481", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.3845", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.5326", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.1481", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.3845", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.5326", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.2094", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.5183", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.7277", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0613", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1338", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.195", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.682761", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.318539", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.749551", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.402804", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.719327", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.464522", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.249415", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.047/0.972);h2h_total_adj=1.065", "lambda_correction_reason": "dampened_medium_gap:0.43;history_piecewise_offset=+0.115", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 2, 1, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 2, 1, 1]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 2, 1, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 2, 1, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 1, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 1, 1, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[4, 0, 6, 2, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 1, 1, 1]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.894", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.748", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.621", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.486", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.2", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.85", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.73", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.88", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.81", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.818", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.063", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.374", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.062", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.125", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.374", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.481", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.645", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.281", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.364", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.1", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "BURTON ALBION", "away_team": "BRADFORD", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.698", "away_attack_ratio": "1.293", "home_defense_ratio": "1.208", "away_defense_ratio": "1.114", "home_form_ratio": "1.143", "away_form_ratio": "0.768", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.0", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.067", "home_momentum": "1.2", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.9153811016189346", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "2.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.3296799539643607", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "10.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.9", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.8111243971624382", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "0.9666666666666668", "h2h_btts_agreement": "0.6", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "0.7833333333333333", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "1", "h2h_effective_sample": "10.548", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "10", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.467", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": 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"xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.355", "market_home_win_prob": "0.256", "market_draw_prob": "0.289", "market_away_win_prob": "0.455", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.345", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.797", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "0.875", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.0", "away_goals_scored_avg": 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"157", "v64_perf_wr_60d": "0.758741", "v64_perf_wr_21d": "0.726115", "v64_perf_wr_7d": "0.683544", "v64_perf_n_7d": "79", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling": "", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling_reason": "", "v64_adaptive_execution_pass": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_provisional": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_maturity": "", "v64_market_expression_score": "0.601143", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "0.0", "btts_context_ok": "0.0", "quant_score_f": "0.609924", "quant_ev_f": "0.104014", "quant_shape_f": "0.616123", "quant_ev_norm": "0.5828971428571429", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.328859", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "0", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_VALUE_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_MARKET_MIN", "settled_value_profile_pass": "0.0", "settled_value_profile_reason": "VALUE_MARKET_CONFIDENCE_FAILED", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "1.0", "safer_market_available": "OU OVER 1.5", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "0.328859", "market_portfolio_score": "0.525065", "prob": "0.7409", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.6789", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.7971", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.253", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.2745", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.7356", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.2745", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.2418", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "2.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.2694", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half profile looks slower, so the goal angle is stronger over the full match than early.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "AUG06_AUTHORITATIVE_PROFILE", "terminal_approved_route": "1.0", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "CORE_RELIABILITY", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.7409", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.416884", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.49", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.328859", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.644", "current_performance_value_score": "0.554595", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.7", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "0.312", "current_performance_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "0.0", "league_history_win_rate": "", "league_history_roi": "", "league_history_guard": "unknown", "league_history_label": "NO_HISTORY", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5131,btts_xg=0.7007,odds=1.49)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5131,btts_xg=0.7007,odds=1.49)", "ticket_use": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class": "WATCH", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Track only", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3288590604026845", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.4560724757270692", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.28", "away_blank_risk": "0.2", "max_blank_risk": "0.28", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.7965", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.0", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.2437", "p_total_le2": "0.4869", "p_exactly2": "0.2432", "winner_quality_score": "0.5654", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5193", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.5953", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.666", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.31", "winner_consistency_score": "0.5007", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7792", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.5021", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.722011", "soft_warning_count": "0", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "none", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.62054", "winning_chance_score": "0.694155", "value_opportunity_score": "0.600314", "winning_chance_rank": "9", "value_opportunity_rank": "25", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5131,btts_xg=0.7007,odds=1.49)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "WATCH", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=WATCH; final_quality=WATCH; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.741; conf=0.741; quant=0.610; winner_quality=0.519; reliability=0.722; variance=0.306; hist_net=0.720; hist_risk=0.174; support=0.645; warnings=0/0/0; lose_risk=1; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5131,btts_xg=0.7007,odds=1.49); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.584691", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.389896", "publication_rank_score": "0.530148", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "21", "publication_value_rank": "27", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "WATCH", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.416884", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.584691", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.49. | TICKET — live use WATCH; quality WATCH; risk HIGH; reliability role WATCH; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 74%; reliability score 58%; profile similarity 42/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — BURTON ALBION 1.21 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.15), BRADFORD 1.52 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.38), match 2.73 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: BURTON ALBION 1+ 70% / 2+ 34%; BRADFORD 1+ 78% / 2+ 45%. Match: 2+ 76%, 3+ 51%, 4+ 29%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (12%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 49%; recent O1.5 support 70%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 58% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — no settled CTM league-market record is available yet for LEAGUE ONE. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 39%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / WATCH / GOOD VALUE. Evidence-value score 55%, historical profile 42%, price-value index 33%. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.7277", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.7277", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.5183", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1200335078329264", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.2094", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0629990177372624", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0799205568511059", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "243", "v65_alternative_scores": "0-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.310407406551958", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.2094", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.5183", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_use_internal": "WATCH", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "5d9410d887ab8e46", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "ANNAGH UNITED vs LIMAVADY UNITED", "league": "League Cup", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7385", "prediction_odds": "1.42", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.7042", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.35", "prediction_edge_pct": "3.43", "prediction_ev": "0.0486", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.406872", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.406872", "draw_probability_raw": "0.260545", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.260545", "direction_gap": "0.074288", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.1831", "draw_risk_score": "0.5523", "draw_resistance_score": "0.178398", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "3", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.529437", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.3326", "draw_prob": "0.2605", "away_win_prob": "0.4069", "home_odds": "2.75", "draw_odds": "3.15", "away_odds": "2.3", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.327161", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.248456", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.424383", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.332584", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.260545", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.406872", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.332584", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.260545", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.406872", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.3182", "expected_away_goals": "1.5348", "expected_total_goals": "2.853", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.3182", "away_goal_lambda": "1.5348", "match_goal_lambda": "2.853", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1167", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2676", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2155", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.853", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.411", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.41", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.453522", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.469728", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.455,recent_scoring_conceding:0.534,form_momentum:0.458", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.22", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.143", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7324", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3796", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1471", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7845", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4537", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1999", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7778", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5431", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3199", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.853", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7778", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5431", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3199", "ou25_probability_band": "borderline", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.3972", "direction_abs_score": "0.3972", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9537", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.282", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8076", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.2286", "direction_form_edge": "0.0091", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.628", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.64897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5745", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.663", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.0877", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.4288", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.4", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.4", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.6", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7736", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8589", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.3182", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.5348", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.853", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.2166", "losing_pick_risk_score": "4", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|high_blank_risk|low_scoring_consistency", "probability_raw": "0.7778", "probability": "0.7385", "confidence_model": "0.5677", "performance_confidence": "0.7385", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.3446", "confidence_gate": "0.7385", "model_conf_raw": "0.5677", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7385", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7385", "confidence": "0.7385", "market_performance_confidence": "0.490776", "market_performance_score": "49.08", "market_performance_score_base": "49.08", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.597143", "confidence_route_component": "0.174286", "confidence_environment_component": "0.670893", "confidence_safety_component": "0.450857", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.874242", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 60%; route 17%; environment 67%; safety 45%; probability 87%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.42", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.7042", "edge_p": "0.0343", "edge_pct": "3.43", "ev": "0.0486", "quant_shape_score": "0.597414", "quant_ev": "0.048637", "quant_score": "0.531032", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.786", "historical_risk_score": "0.209", "historical_net_score": "0.692", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.167", "best_goal_market_support": "0.759", "market_history_support": "0.759", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.987", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.5", "combined_over35_rate": "0.3", "combined_btts_rate": "0.4", "ou15_history_support": "0.759", "ou25_history_support": "0.481", "ou35_history_support": "0.216", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.497", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.611", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.474", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.417", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.328", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.6", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.775", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.25", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "standings_missing|cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.35", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — ANNAGH UNITED vs LIMAVADY UNITED: Over 1.5 @ 1.42\nOUTLOOK — ANNAGH UNITED 1.32 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | LIMAVADY UNITED 1.53 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 2.85 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (LAMBDA_DIRECTION_UNCONFIRMED).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.85 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v62_recovered_ou15_execution_band", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.756", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.088", "dom_live_index": "0.088", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.117", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.439", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.358", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.408", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.5109", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.375", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.798", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "8", "selection_regime_fit": "0.75", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.5446", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.0783", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.2993", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.2405", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.4003", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.6408", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.2405", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.4003", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.6408", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.3182", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.5348", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.853", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0777", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1345", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2122", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.71076", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.351959", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.753477", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.408271", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.740396", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.491764", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.272902", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.009/0.995);h2h_total_adj=1.000", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.22;history_piecewise_offset=+0.143", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 3, 0, 2, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 0, 1, 0]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 2, 4, 4]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 0, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 3, 0, 2, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 0, 1, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 2, 4, 4]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 0, 1, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.8", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.166", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.789", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "goal_floor_score": "0.592", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55|ONE_SIDED_GOAL_DEPENDENCY", "second_goal_security": "0.456", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.4", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.0", "btts_1plus_route": "0.566", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.4", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.636", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.759", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.5", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.436", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.481", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.3", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "ANNAGH UNITED", "away_team": "LIMAVADY UNITED", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.846", "away_attack_ratio": "0.759", "home_defense_ratio": "0.773", "away_defense_ratio": "1.7", "home_form_ratio": "1.252", "away_form_ratio": "1.883", "home_defense_form_ratio": "0.221", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.2", "home_momentum": "2.6", "away_momentum": "1.8", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.6", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.375", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "8.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.375", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.7981034820053446", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "8.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "8", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.088", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.127", "xg_away_expected": "1.284", "xg_total_expected": "2.41", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.067", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.157", "market_home_win_prob": "0.326", "market_draw_prob": "0.284", "market_away_win_prob": "0.39", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.38", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", 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"current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "0.0", "league_history_win_rate": "", "league_history_roi": "", "league_history_guard": "unknown", "league_history_label": "NO_HISTORY", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5431,btts_xg=0.7736,odds=1.42)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5431,btts_xg=0.7736,odds=1.42)", "ticket_use": "RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY", "ticket_quality_class": "CORE", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Track only", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.2957746478873239", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.4732774138497652", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.2", "away_blank_risk": "0.46", "max_blank_risk": "0.46", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8589", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.8", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.0", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.2222", "p_total_le2": "0.4569", "p_exactly2": "0.2347", "winner_quality_score": "0.5448", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5256", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.6869", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.567", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.429", "winner_consistency_score": "0.1419", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7825", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.596", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.715888", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "high_blank_risk", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.444117", "winning_chance_score": "0.494523", "value_opportunity_score": "0.436167", "winning_chance_rank": "37", "value_opportunity_rank": "49", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5431,btts_xg=0.7736,odds=1.42)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "WATCH", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=WATCH; final_quality=WATCH; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.739; conf=0.739; quant=0.531; winner_quality=0.526; reliability=0.716; variance=0.511; hist_net=0.692; hist_risk=0.209; support=0.759; warnings=1/0/1; lose_risk=4; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5431,btts_xg=0.7736,odds=1.42); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.561368", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.382324", "publication_rank_score": "0.511236", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "22", "publication_value_rank": "29", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.490776", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.561368", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.42. | TICKET — live use RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY; quality CORE; risk HIGH; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 74%; reliability score 56%; profile similarity 49/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — ANNAGH UNITED 1.32 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.24), LIMAVADY UNITED 1.53 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.40), match 2.85 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: ANNAGH UNITED 1+ 73% / 2+ 38%; LIMAVADY UNITED 1+ 78% / 2+ 45%. Match: 2+ 78%, 3+ 54%, 4+ 32%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (12%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 46%; recent O1.5 support 80%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 56% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — no settled CTM league-market record is available yet for League Cup. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 38%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.853", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.853", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.5348", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1166785278588657", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.3182", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0352689536878216", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0490892489585885", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "284", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2947311545338036", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.3182", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.5348", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_use_internal": "RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "de38d95c9d03cbe5", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "CHELTENHAM vs FLEETWOOD", "league": "LEAGUE TWO", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7344", "prediction_odds": "1.43", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6993", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.36", "prediction_edge_pct": "3.51", "prediction_ev": "0.0503", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "2", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.407573", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.407573", "draw_probability_raw": "0.269084", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.269084", "direction_gap": "0.084229", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.186696", "draw_risk_score": "0.555921", "draw_resistance_score": "0.200484", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.482847", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.3233", "draw_prob": "0.2691", "away_win_prob": "0.4076", "home_odds": "3.0", "draw_odds": "3.15", "away_odds": "2.2", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.315292", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.256496", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.428212", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.323343", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.269084", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.407573", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.323343", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.269084", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.407573", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.2222", "expected_away_goals": "1.4674", "expected_total_goals": "2.6896", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.2222", "away_goal_lambda": "1.4674", "match_goal_lambda": "2.6896", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1218", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2946", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2305", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.6896", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.399", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.398", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.429149", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.464575", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.424,recent_scoring_conceding:0.520,form_momentum:0.528", "lambda_direction_resolution": "dampened_medium_gap:0.32", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.107", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7054", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3454", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1254", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7695", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4312", "away_prob_3plus": "0.183", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7495", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5038", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2836", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.6896", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7495", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5038", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2836", "ou25_probability_band": "borderline", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.4874", "direction_abs_score": "0.4874", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9253", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.4609", "direction_team_edge": "-0.9956", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.4375", "direction_form_edge": "0.5679", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.9757", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80215", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5428", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6381", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.0165", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6414", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.7", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.6896", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8329", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.2222", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.4674", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.6896", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.2452", "losing_pick_risk_score": "2", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|low_tempo", "probability_raw": "0.7495", "probability": "0.7344", "confidence_model": "0.6599", "performance_confidence": "0.7344", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.3386", "confidence_gate": "0.7344", "model_conf_raw": "0.6599", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7344", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7344", "confidence": "0.7344", "market_performance_confidence": "0.747939", "market_performance_score": "74.79", "market_performance_score_base": "69.79", "market_confidence_band": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "0.591429", "confidence_route_component": "0.731429", "confidence_environment_component": "0.60281", "confidence_safety_component": "0.87", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.861818", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 59%; route 73%; environment 60%; safety 87%; probability 86%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.43", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6993", "edge_p": "0.0351", "edge_pct": "3.51", "ev": "0.0503", "quant_shape_score": "0.624254", "quant_ev": "0.050253", "quant_score": "0.655089", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.805", "historical_risk_score": "0.24", "historical_net_score": "0.697", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.558", "best_goal_market_support": "0.757", "market_history_support": "0.757", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.988", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.4", "combined_over35_rate": "0.3", "combined_btts_rate": "0.7", "ou15_history_support": "0.757", "ou25_history_support": "0.408", "ou35_history_support": "0.216", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.702", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.656", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.705", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.322", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.421", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.4625", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.36", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — CHELTENHAM vs FLEETWOOD: Over 1.5 @ 1.43\nOUTLOOK — CHELTENHAM 1.22 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | FLEETWOOD 1.47 expected (about 1 goal; 1-2 plausible) | Match 2.69 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — FLEETWOOD is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.69 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — LOW-MEDIUM. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.865", "data_completeness_score": "0.8621", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.221", "dom_live_index": "0.221", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.264", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.277", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.281", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.272", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3717", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.386", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.308", "h2h_confidence": "0.875", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "10", "selection_regime_fit": "0.75", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.5461", "raw_expected_home_goals": "0.9734", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.2948", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.159", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.3358", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.4948", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.159", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.3358", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.4948", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.2222", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.4674", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.6896", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0632", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1316", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1948", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.6862", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.322506", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.737052", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.385807", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.711634", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.454852", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.241313", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.022/0.987);h2h_total_adj=1.015", "lambda_correction_reason": "dampened_medium_gap:0.32;history_piecewise_offset=+0.107", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 1, 5, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 2, 2, 1]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 5, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 1, 5, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 2, 2, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 5, 1, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 1, 0, 1, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 4, 4, 3, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 5, 1, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 0, 0, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.8", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.748", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.286", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.724", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.612", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.8", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.8", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.88", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.75", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.81", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.58", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.755", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.033", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.25", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.221", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.062", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.25", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.627", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.757", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.427", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.408", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.3", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "CHELTENHAM", "away_team": "FLEETWOOD", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.997", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.768", "away_attack_ratio": "1.041", "home_defense_ratio": "0.819", "away_defense_ratio": "2.839", "home_form_ratio": "0.933", "away_form_ratio": "0.834", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.066", "away_defense_form_ratio": "2.616", "home_momentum": "1.0", "away_momentum": "1.0", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.385625178542546", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.6666666666666665", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.3333333333333333", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.4511883639059735", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "10.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.3", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.3", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.8111243971624382", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "0.8777777777777778", "h2h_btts_agreement": "0.9666666666666668", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "0.9222222222222224", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "10.968", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "10", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.221", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.042", "xg_away_expected": "1.357", "xg_total_expected": "2.398", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.071", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.315", "market_home_win_prob": "0.302", "market_draw_prob": "0.287", "market_away_win_prob": "0.411", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.373", "api_reliability": "0.997", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.803", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.5", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.688", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.438", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "0.688", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.4", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.8", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.2", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.8", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.953", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.382", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.4", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.8", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.8", "home_scoring_std": "0.8", "away_scoring_std": "0.748", "home_conceding_std": "1.72", "away_conceding_std": "1.6", "match_goal_volatility": "1.217", "home_score_consistency": "0.543", "away_score_consistency": "0.572", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.8", "home_over25_rate": "0.4", "away_over25_rate": "0.4", "home_over35_rate": "0.4", "away_over35_rate": "0.2", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.8", "home_attack_trend": "-0.1", "away_attack_trend": "-0.238", "home_defense_trend": "0.112", "away_defense_trend": "1.112", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.112", "away_defense_improvement": "-1.112", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.272", "defense_ratio_gap": "-2.02", "form_attack_gap": "0.099", "form_defense_gap": "1.55", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.469", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.302", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.286", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.412", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.388", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.015", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.315", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "2-2 | 2-0 | 2-0", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-03-10 | 2025-10-04 | 2025-02-08", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"2-2\", \"2-0\", \"2-0\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-03-10\", \"2025-10-04\", \"2025-02-08\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"2-2\", \"2-0\", 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"v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "CORE_RELIABILITY", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.7344", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.747939", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.43", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.300699", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.8045", "current_performance_value_score": "0.685026", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.8", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.2", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.2", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "0.191", "current_performance_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "1.0", "league_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_history_roi": "0.52", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "SMALL_SAMPLE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5038,btts_xg=0.6896,odds=1.43)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5038,btts_xg=0.6896,odds=1.43)", "ticket_use": "STRONG VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "STRONG", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Strong separate-ticket candidate", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "QUALIFIED_RELIABILITY", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3006993006993006", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5511650117715617", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.747939", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.14", "away_blank_risk": "0.2", "max_blank_risk": "0.2", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8329", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.4", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.2506", "p_total_le2": "0.4962", "p_exactly2": "0.2456", "winner_quality_score": "0.6178", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6006", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.6205", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.8", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.411", "winner_consistency_score": "0.474", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8371", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.6259", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.719276", "soft_warning_count": "0", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "none", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.647204", "winning_chance_score": "0.721278", "value_opportunity_score": "0.540796", "winning_chance_rank": "2", "value_opportunity_rank": "38", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5038,btts_xg=0.6896,odds=1.43)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "STRONG", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "LOW-MEDIUM", "ticket_short_why": "Strong prediction quality with attractive value", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=STRONG; final_quality=STRONG; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.734; conf=0.734; quant=0.655; winner_quality=0.601; reliability=0.719; variance=0.372; hist_net=0.697; hist_risk=0.240; support=0.757; warnings=0/0/0; lose_risk=2; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5038,btts_xg=0.6896,odds=1.43); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.671539", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.541416", "publication_rank_score": "0.635105", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "13", "publication_value_rank": "13", "league_market_history_bets": "1", "league_market_history_wins": "1", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "5.2", "league_market_history_roi": "0.52", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "STRONG", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.747939", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.671539", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.43. | TICKET — live use STRONG VALUE; quality STRONG; risk LOW-MEDIUM; reliability role STRONG; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 73%; reliability score 67%; profile similarity 75/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — CHELTENHAM 1.22 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.16), FLEETWOOD 1.47 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.34), match 2.69 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: CHELTENHAM 1+ 71% / 2+ 35%; FLEETWOOD 1+ 77% / 2+ 43%. Match: 2+ 75%, 3+ 50%, 4+ 28%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (12%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 61%; recent O1.5 support 80%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 67% (MODERATE). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — LEAGUE TWO / OU OVER 1.5: 1-0 from 1 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +52.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 54%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / STRONG / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Evidence-value score 69%, historical profile 75%, price-value index 30%. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.6896", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.6896", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.4674", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1217902033480067", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.2222", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0234118952797545", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0846317947378729", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "265", "v65_alternative_scores": "0-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3107960173444775", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.2222", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.4674", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "STRONG", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "STRONG", "ticket_use_internal": "STRONG VALUE", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "359b027e956483d9", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:30:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:30:00", "match": "WIMBORNE TOWN vs GOSPORT", "league": "Southern Football League, Premier Division South", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7329", "prediction_odds": "1.44", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6944", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.36", "prediction_edge_pct": "3.85", "prediction_ev": "0.0554", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.419694", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.419694", "draw_probability_raw": "0.268839", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.268839", "direction_gap": "0.108226", "outlook_direction_score": "0.06846", "draw_risk_score": "0.541198", "draw_resistance_score": "0.178685", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.444315", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.4197", "draw_prob": "0.2688", "away_win_prob": "0.3115", "home_odds": "2.0", "draw_odds": "3.15", "away_odds": "3.35", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.418438", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.256302", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.32526", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.419694", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.268839", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.311467", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.419694", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.268839", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.311467", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.4545", "expected_away_goals": "1.2517", "expected_total_goals": "2.7062", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.4545", "away_goal_lambda": "1.2517", "match_goal_lambda": "2.7062", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1216", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2335", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.286", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.7062", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.483", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.484", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.565493", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.545673", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.627,recent_scoring_conceding:0.479,form_momentum:0.429", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.30", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.106", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7665", "home_prob_2plus": "0.4268", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1798", "away_prob_1plus": "0.714", "away_prob_2plus": "0.356", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1319", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7525", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5079", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2873", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.7062", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7525", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5079", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2873", "ou25_probability_band": "borderline", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "0.2317", "direction_abs_score": "0.2317", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.6725", "direction_gap_quality": "MODERATE", "direction_market_edge": "0.6755", "direction_team_edge": "0.0", "direction_xg_edge": "0.2599", "direction_form_edge": "-0.153", "direction_defence_edge": "0.0", "direction_agreement": "0.6667", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.633805", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5473", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.648", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.0441", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6448", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.7", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "1.0", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.0", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7032", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8606", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.4545", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.2517", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.7062", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.2027", "losing_pick_risk_score": "2", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|low_scoring_consistency", "probability_raw": "0.7525", "probability": "0.7329", "confidence_model": "0.6265", "performance_confidence": "0.7329", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.3729", "confidence_gate": "0.7329", "model_conf_raw": "0.6265", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7329", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7329", "confidence": "0.7329", "market_performance_confidence": "0.700423", "market_performance_score": "70.04", "market_performance_score_base": "70.04", "market_confidence_band": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "0.848571", "confidence_route_component": "0.61", "confidence_environment_component": "0.752583", "confidence_safety_component": "0.499857", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.857273", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 85%; route 61%; environment 75%; safety 50%; probability 86%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "VALUE", "odds": "1.44", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6944", "edge_p": "0.0385", "edge_pct": "3.85", "ev": "0.0554", "quant_shape_score": "0.633737", "quant_ev": "0.055431", "quant_score": "0.625895", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.801", "historical_risk_score": "0.236", "historical_net_score": "0.695", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.289", "best_goal_market_support": "0.847", "market_history_support": "0.847", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.988", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.9", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.6", "combined_btts_rate": "0.7", "ou15_history_support": "0.847", "ou25_history_support": "0.567", "ou35_history_support": "0.432", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.714", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.74", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.645", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.466", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.596", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.69", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.5337", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.36", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — WIMBORNE TOWN vs GOSPORT: Over 1.5 @ 1.44\nOUTLOOK — WIMBORNE TOWN 1.45 expected (about 1 goal; 1-2 plausible) | GOSPORT 1.25 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 2.71 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — GOSPORT is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.71 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 2-1, 1-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — MEDIUM. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.52", "data_completeness_score": "0.763", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.442", "dom_live_index": "0.442", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.37", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.406", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.322", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.359", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3093", "h2h_goals_avg": "1.857", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.429", "h2h_confidence": "0.689", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "7", "selection_regime_fit": "0.75", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.5517", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.2779", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.9819", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.3562", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.1292", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.4854", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.3562", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.1292", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.4854", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.4545", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.2517", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.7062", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0983", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1225", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2208", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.742362", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.392953", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.676708", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.311647", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.709693", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.452436", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.239308", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.044/0.973);h2h_total_adj=0.961", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.30;history_piecewise_offset=+0.106", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 1, 1, 3, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 3, 3, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 3, 3, 3, 0]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 6, 2, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 1, 1, 3, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 3, 3, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 3, 3, 3, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 6, 2, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.8", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "3.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.02", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.47", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.429", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.429", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.65", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40", "second_goal_security": "0.634", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.9", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.689", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.847", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.489", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.567", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "WIMBORNE TOWN", "away_team": "GOSPORT", "ctm_final_source": "API_ONLY_OR_API_PRIMARY", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "api", "ctm_context_source": "api", "ctm_source_agreement": "single_source", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "0", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "0.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "", "away_attack_ratio": "", "home_defense_ratio": "", "away_defense_ratio": "", "home_form_ratio": "1.178", "away_form_ratio": "1.309", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.257", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.477", "home_momentum": "0.6", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "7", "away_rest_days": "7", "h2h_source": "api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "1.8571428571428568", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "0", "h2h_sofa_sample": "", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "7.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "1.8571428571428568", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.4285714285714285", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.6885967760854024", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "7.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "7", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.442", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.045", "xg_home_expected": "1.334", "xg_away_expected": "1.149", "xg_total_expected": "2.484", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.119", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "0.0", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.185", "market_home_win_prob": "0.448", "market_draw_prob": "0.284", "market_away_win_prob": "0.267", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.368", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "0.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.732", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "api_fixture_team_kickoff_match", "verification_warning": "provider_is_api_football_not_sofascore", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.188", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.375", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.625", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.4", "home_form_avg_conceded": "2.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.8", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.4", "league_avg_home_scoring": "", "league_avg_away_scoring": "", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": 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"publication_band": "PRIMARY_VALUE", "secondary_track_only": "0", "main_ticket_selected": "0", "highest_stake": "0", "value_classification": "POSITIVE_VALUE", "effective_model_ev": "0.055376", "terminal_policy_failure": "", "v35_calibrated_direct_ou25": "", "high_goal_ceiling_score": "0.6557", "high_goal_ceiling_flag": "1", "promotion_evaluated": "1", "promotion_eligible": "1", "promotion_score": "0.659386", "promotion_rank": "1", "promotion_reject_reason": "", "line_selected": "1", "line_not_selected_reason": "", "ou25_line_upgrade_ready": "0", "aug06_market_rule": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "aug06_market_pass": "1", "aug06_stage": "after_all_promotions", "ou15_recent_value_signal": "0", "ou15_recent_value_reason": "", "minutes_to_kickoff": "987.04", "live_publication_eligible": "1", "live_publication_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "football_qualification_pass": "1", "football_qualification_status": "QUALIFIED", "football_qualification_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_pass": "1", "v61_operating_contract_status": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_market_role": "RELIABILITY_BACKBONE", "v61_operating_direct_rate": "0.9", "v61_operating_probability": "0.7329", "v61_operating_source_conflict_caution": "0", "real_odds_verification_required": "1", "min_acceptable_real_odds": "1.4", "max_acceptable_real_odds": "1.59", "display_minimum_real_odds": "1.3", "display_maximum_real_odds": "1.59", "synthetic_price_display_pass": "1", "synthetic_price_execution_pass": "1", "executable_publication_pass": "1", "executable_publication_status": "EXECUTABLE", "executable_publication_reason": "PASS", "execution_price_role": "EXECUTION_BAND", "market_validation_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OU_RULE", "market_probability_status": "MODEL_ESTIMATE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_CALIBRATED", "secondary_value_eligible": "0", "legacy_gate_override_used": "0", "legacy_gate_override_reason": "", "v61_operating_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_perf_wr_long": "0.758741", "v64_perf_roi_long": "0.113077", "v64_market_performance_score": "0.705032", "v64_perf_n_60d": "286", "v64_perf_n_long": "286", "v64_perf_roi_21d": "0.075541", "v64_perf_roi_7d": "0.003291", "v64_market_performance_status": "CHRONOLOGICAL_PREMATCH_ROLLING", "v64_perf_roi_60d": "0.113077", "v64_perf_n_21d": "157", "v64_perf_wr_60d": "0.758741", "v64_perf_wr_21d": "0.726115", "v64_perf_wr_7d": "0.683544", "v64_perf_n_7d": "79", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling": "", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling_reason": "", "v64_adaptive_execution_pass": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_provisional": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_maturity": "", "v64_market_expression_score": "0.671313", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "0.0", "btts_context_ok": "0.0", "quant_score_f": "0.625895", "quant_ev_f": "0.055431", "quant_shape_f": "0.633737", "quant_ev_norm": "0.4440885714285715", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.305556", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "1", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_QUALIFIED_OU15_SYNTHETIC_CURVE", "settled_value_profile_pass": "0.0", "settled_value_profile_reason": "NOT_HISTORY_VALUE_RECOVERY_MARKET", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "1.0", "safer_market_available": "OU OVER 1.5", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "0.305556", "market_portfolio_score": "0.547398", "prob": "0.7329", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.8286", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.6807", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.4323", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.579", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.751", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.579", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.2309", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.4286", "h2h_low_total_sample": "7.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "1.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.2804", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half estimate is unvalidated and is not used to promote this full-time pick.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "MARKET_CONFIDENCE_VALUE", "terminal_approved_route": "1.0", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "CORE_RELIABILITY", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.7329", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.700423", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.44", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.305556", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.64995", "current_performance_value_score": "0.666528", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.9", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "0.3001", "current_performance_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "17.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.8235", "league_history_roi": "0.2965", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "POSITIVE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "main_acca_prediction_outlier(high_probability_low_effective_reliability)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_main_acca_prediction_outlier(high_probability_low_effective_reliability)", "ticket_use": "CORE VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "CORE", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Secondary or separate ticket", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "QUALIFIED_RELIABILITY", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3055555555555556", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5376386499999999", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.700423", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.14", "away_blank_risk": "0.28", "max_blank_risk": "0.28", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8606", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.4", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.8", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.2475", "p_total_le2": "0.4921", "p_exactly2": "0.2446", "winner_quality_score": "0.5927", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5781", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.7012", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.666", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.6", "winner_consistency_score": "0.2453", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.783", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.5638", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.408816", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "1", "prediction_outlier_severity": "2", "prediction_outlier_reason": "high_probability_low_effective_reliability", "acca_selection_score": "0.634635", "winning_chance_score": "0.598905", "value_opportunity_score": "0.492981", "winning_chance_rank": "28", "value_opportunity_rank": "44", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5079,btts_xg=0.7032,odds=1.44)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "MEDIUM", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary prediction with attractive value", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=SECONDARY; final_quality=SECONDARY; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.733; conf=0.733; quant=0.626; winner_quality=0.578; reliability=0.409; variance=0.309; hist_net=0.695; hist_risk=0.236; support=0.847; warnings=1/0/0; lose_risk=2; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=main_acca_prediction_outlier(high_probability_low_effective_reliability); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "1.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "MISSING_H2H_RANK_DOWNGRADE|MISSING_H2H_RANK_DOWNGRADE", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "1.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.643799", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.03", "publication_value_priority": "0.531449", "publication_rank_score": "0.612341", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "18", "publication_value_rank": "14", "league_market_history_bets": "6", "league_market_history_wins": "6", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "27.5", "league_market_history_roi": "0.4583", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE RELIABILITY", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.700423", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 + market profile + validated combination + model probability >=70%.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.643799", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.44. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk MEDIUM; reliability role CORE RELIABILITY; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 73%; reliability score 64%; profile similarity 70/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — WIMBORNE TOWN 1.45 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.36), GOSPORT 1.25 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.13), match 2.71 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: WIMBORNE TOWN 1+ 77% / 2+ 43%; GOSPORT 1+ 71% / 2+ 36%. Match: 2+ 75%, 3+ 51%, 4+ 29%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (12%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 63%; recent O1.5 support 90%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 + market profile + validated combination + model probability >=70%. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 64% (MODERATE). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League, Premier Division South / OU OVER 1.5: 6-0 from 6 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +45.8%); very small sample. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 53%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Evidence-value score 67%, historical profile 70%, price-value index 31%. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.7062", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.7062", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.2517", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1215979493251032", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.4545", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0091489894364047", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.065050125175551", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "285", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-0, 2-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3071762985446881", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.4545", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.2517", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "5747cb3c1b61c750", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 14:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 16:00:00", "match": "UD LEIRIA vs TORREENSE", "league": "U23 Championship", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7198", "prediction_odds": "1.44", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6944", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.39", "prediction_edge_pct": "2.53", "prediction_ev": "0.0365", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.427157", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.427157", "draw_probability_raw": "0.267505", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.267505", "direction_gap": "0.121819", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.333042", "draw_risk_score": "0.511166", "draw_resistance_score": "0.389137", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.517652", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.3053", "draw_prob": "0.2675", "away_win_prob": "0.4272", "home_odds": "2.6", "draw_odds": "3.1", "away_odds": "2.45", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.296043", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.254723", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.449235", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.305338", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.267505", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.427157", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.305338", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.267505", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.427157", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.177", "expected_away_goals": "1.5102", "expected_total_goals": "2.6872", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.177", "away_goal_lambda": "1.5102", "match_goal_lambda": "2.6872", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.121", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.3082", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2209", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.6872", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.315", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.315", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.467466", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.448717", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.485,recent_scoring_conceding:0.302,form_momentum:0.221", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.15", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.107", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.6918", "home_prob_2plus": "0.329", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1156", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7791", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4456", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1937", "match_prob_2plus": "0.749", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5032", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2831", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.6872", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.749", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5032", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2831", "ou25_probability_band": "borderline", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.4415", "direction_abs_score": "0.4415", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9794", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.0957", "direction_team_edge": "-0.7435", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.2347", "direction_form_edge": "-0.7604", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.6388", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.83301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.539", "btts_outlook": "BTTS not expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6279", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.9886", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.5118", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.5", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.6778", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.7793", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.177", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.5102", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.6872", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.3332", "losing_pick_risk_score": "3", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_control|low_tempo", "probability_raw": "0.749", "probability": "0.7198", "confidence_model": "0.6093", "performance_confidence": "0.7198", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.2702", "confidence_gate": "0.7198", "model_conf_raw": "0.6093", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7198", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7198", "confidence": "0.7198", "market_performance_confidence": "0.378126", "market_performance_score": "37.81", "market_performance_score_base": "37.81", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.334286", "confidence_route_component": "0.251429", "confidence_environment_component": "0.458952", "confidence_safety_component": "0.411571", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.817576", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 33%; route 25%; environment 46%; safety 41%; probability 82%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.44", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6944", "edge_p": "0.0253", "edge_pct": "2.53", "ev": "0.0365", "quant_shape_score": "0.581263", "quant_ev": "0.036496", "quant_score": "0.514735", "prematch_data_score": "0.55", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.782", "historical_risk_score": "0.249", "historical_net_score": "0.67", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.472", "best_goal_market_support": "0.67", "market_history_support": "0.667", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.989", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.4", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.5", "ou15_history_support": "0.667", "ou25_history_support": "0.39", "ou35_history_support": "0.288", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.565", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.527", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.67", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.106", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.467", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3625", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|low_trust_league_cap|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.39", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — UD LEIRIA vs TORREENSE: Over 1.5 @ 1.44\nOUTLOOK — UD LEIRIA 1.18 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | TORREENSE 1.51 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 2.69 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — TORREENSE is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.69 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 0-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — MEDIUM. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v62_recovered_ou15_execution_band", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8369", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.089", "dom_live_index": "0.089", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.087", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.232", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.201", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.228", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.5727", "h2h_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.52", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "2", "selection_regime_fit": "0.625", "selection_regime_ok": "0", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_miss:min_conf<0.42,min_tempo<0.45,min_quality<0.42", "selection_value_boost": "0.4485", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.0614", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.2091", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.1206", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.3768", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.4974", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.1206", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.3768", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.4974", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.177", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.5102", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.6872", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0564", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1334", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1898", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.673916", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.308506", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.747615", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.400132", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.712169", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.45552", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.241868", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.009/0.995);h2h_total_adj=1.042", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.15;history_piecewise_offset=+0.107", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 1, 1, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 3, 4, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 2, 3, 0, 0]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 1, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 1, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 3, 4, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 2, 3, 0, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 1, 1, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 1, 0, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 0, 1, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 2, 2, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "0.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.356", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.375", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.375", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "goal_floor_score": "0.582", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.476", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.0", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.6", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.6", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.53", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.74", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.44", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.74", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.613", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.187", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.313", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.063", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.188", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.313", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.568", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.667", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.368", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.39", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "UD LEIRIA", "away_team": "TORREENSE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", 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"effective_model_ev": "0.036512", "terminal_policy_failure": "", "v35_calibrated_direct_ou25": "", "high_goal_ceiling_score": "0.6023", "high_goal_ceiling_flag": "1", "promotion_evaluated": "1", "promotion_eligible": "0", "promotion_score": "0.587935", "promotion_rank": "0", "promotion_reject_reason": "not_eligible_for_promotion", "line_selected": "0", "line_not_selected_reason": "not_finally_selected", "ou25_line_upgrade_ready": "0", "aug06_market_rule": "aug06_block_ou15_profile", "aug06_market_pass": "0", "aug06_stage": "after_all_promotions", "ou15_recent_value_signal": "0", "ou15_recent_value_reason": "", "minutes_to_kickoff": "717.04", "live_publication_eligible": "1", "live_publication_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "football_qualification_pass": "1", "football_qualification_status": "QUALIFIED", "football_qualification_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_pass": "1", "v61_operating_contract_status": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_market_role": "RELIABILITY_BACKBONE", "v61_operating_direct_rate": "0.7", "v61_operating_probability": "0.7198", "v61_operating_source_conflict_caution": "0", "real_odds_verification_required": "1", "min_acceptable_real_odds": "1.4", "max_acceptable_real_odds": "1.59", "display_minimum_real_odds": "1.3", "display_maximum_real_odds": "1.59", "synthetic_price_display_pass": "1", "synthetic_price_execution_pass": "1", "executable_publication_pass": "1", "executable_publication_status": "EXECUTABLE", "executable_publication_reason": "PASS", "execution_price_role": "EXECUTION_BAND", "market_validation_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OU_RULE", "market_probability_status": "MODEL_ESTIMATE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_CALIBRATED", "secondary_value_eligible": "0", "legacy_gate_override_used": "0", "legacy_gate_override_reason": "", "v61_operating_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_perf_wr_long": "0.758741", "v64_perf_roi_long": "0.113077", "v64_market_performance_score": "0.710106", "v64_perf_n_60d": "286", "v64_perf_n_long": "286", "v64_perf_roi_21d": "0.080692", "v64_perf_roi_7d": "0.026627", "v64_market_performance_status": "CHRONOLOGICAL_PREMATCH_ROLLING", "v64_perf_roi_60d": "0.113077", "v64_perf_n_21d": "159", "v64_perf_wr_60d": "0.758741", "v64_perf_wr_21d": "0.72956", "v64_perf_wr_7d": "0.698795", "v64_perf_n_7d": "83", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling": "", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling_reason": "", "v64_adaptive_execution_pass": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_provisional": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_maturity": "", "v64_market_expression_score": "0.542906", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "", "btts_context_ok": "", "quant_score_f": "", "quant_ev_f": "", "quant_shape_f": "", "quant_ev_norm": "", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.305556", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "0", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_VALUE_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_MARKET_MIN", "settled_value_profile_pass": "", "settled_value_profile_reason": "", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "", "safer_market_available": "", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "", "market_portfolio_score": "", "prob": "0.7198", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.647", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.6905", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.0658", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.4361", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.6684", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.4361", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.2855", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "2.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.26", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half profile looks slower, so the goal angle is stronger over the full match than early.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "", "terminal_approved_route": "", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "14.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.8571", "league_history_roi": "0.5321", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "POSITIVE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5032,btts_xg=0.6778,odds=1.44)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5032,btts_xg=0.6778,odds=1.44)", "ticket_use": "RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY", "ticket_quality_class": "CORE", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Secondary or separate ticket", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3055555555555556", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.4409495499999999", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.34", "away_blank_risk": "0.28", "max_blank_risk": "0.34", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.7794", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "0.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.251", "p_total_le2": "0.4968", "p_exactly2": "0.2458", "winner_quality_score": "0.5472", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5304", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.5839", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.633", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.321", "winner_consistency_score": "0.4111", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7652", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.508", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.711932", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.516345", "winning_chance_score": "0.650902", "value_opportunity_score": "0.491736", "winning_chance_rank": "16", "value_opportunity_rank": "46", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5032,btts_xg=0.6778,odds=1.44)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "FAIR VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "MEDIUM", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary prediction profile", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=SECONDARY; final_quality=SECONDARY; value=FAIR VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.720; conf=0.720; quant=0.515; winner_quality=0.530; reliability=0.712; variance=0.573; hist_net=0.670; hist_risk=0.249; support=0.667; warnings=1/0/0; lose_risk=3; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5032,btts_xg=0.6778,odds=1.44); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.508529", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.366039", "publication_rank_score": "0.468632", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "26", "publication_value_rank": "32", "league_market_history_bets": "3", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "13.6", "league_market_history_roi": "0.4533", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE RELIABILITY", "value_role": "FAIR VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.378126", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.508529", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.44. | TICKET — live use RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY; quality CORE; risk MEDIUM; reliability role CORE RELIABILITY; value role FAIR VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 72%; reliability score 51%; profile similarity 38/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — UD LEIRIA 1.18 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.12), TORREENSE 1.51 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.38), match 2.69 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: UD LEIRIA 1+ 69% / 2+ 33%; TORREENSE 1+ 78% / 2+ 45%. Match: 2+ 75%, 3+ 50%, 4+ 28%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (12%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 48%; recent O1.5 support 70%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 51% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — U23 Championship / OU OVER 1.5: 3-0 from 3 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +45.3%); very small sample. | VALUE — FAIR VALUE; relative value score 37%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / FAIR VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.6872", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.6872", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.5102", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1209970541759971", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.177", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0591208005499961", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0994627072034221", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "223", "v65_alternative_scores": "0-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.315163165277918", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.177", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.5102", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "479f07bd6277e417", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 14:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 16:00:00", "match": "ESTRELA AMADORA vs FARENSE", "league": "U23 Championship", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.716", "prediction_odds": "1.53", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6536", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.4", "prediction_edge_pct": "6.24", "prediction_ev": "0.0955", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.422685", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.422685", "draw_probability_raw": "0.271838", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.271838", "direction_gap": "0.117208", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.313677", "draw_risk_score": "0.500518", "draw_resistance_score": "0.401526", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.431488", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.3055", "draw_prob": "0.2718", "away_win_prob": "0.4227", "home_odds": "2.85", "draw_odds": "2.95", "away_odds": "2.3", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.29531", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.258842", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.445848", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.305477", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.271838", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.422685", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.305477", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.271838", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.422685", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.1467", "expected_away_goals": "1.4703", "expected_total_goals": "2.617", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.1467", "away_goal_lambda": "1.4703", "match_goal_lambda": "2.617", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1231", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.3177", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2298", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.6171", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.109", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.109", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.455142", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.449942", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.446,recent_scoring_conceding:0.368,form_momentum:0.354", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.20", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.100", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.6823", "home_prob_2plus": "0.318", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1092", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7702", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4322", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1837", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7359", "match_prob_3plus": "0.4858", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2677", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.617", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7359", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.4858", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2677", "ou25_probability_band": "weak", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.4449", "direction_abs_score": "0.4449", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.978", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.3267", "direction_team_edge": "-0.5752", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.3157", "direction_form_edge": "-0.606", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.4693", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.82312", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5255", "btts_outlook": "BTTS not expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6192", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.9655", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6015", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.7", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.644", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.7799", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.1467", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.4703", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.6171", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.3236", "losing_pick_risk_score": "2", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|low_tempo", "probability_raw": "0.7359", "probability": "0.716", "confidence_model": "0.6373", "performance_confidence": "0.716", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.2389", "confidence_gate": "0.716", "model_conf_raw": "0.6373", "perf_conf_raw": "0.716", "gate_conf_raw": "0.716", "confidence": "0.716", "market_performance_confidence": "0.730101", "market_performance_score": "73.01", "market_performance_score_base": "68.01", "market_confidence_band": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "0.442857", "confidence_route_component": "0.794286", "confidence_environment_component": "0.57256", "confidence_safety_component": "0.969286", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.806061", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 44%; route 79%; environment 57%; safety 97%; probability 81%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.53", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6536", "edge_p": "0.0624", "edge_pct": "6.24", "ev": "0.0955", "quant_shape_score": "0.590874", "quant_ev": "0.095541", "quant_score": "0.654256", "prematch_data_score": "0.55", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.816", "historical_risk_score": "0.218", "historical_net_score": "0.718", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.531", "best_goal_market_support": "0.786", "market_history_support": "0.705", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.985", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.7", "ou15_history_support": "0.705", "ou25_history_support": "0.486", "ou35_history_support": "0.288", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.663", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.492", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.786", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.302", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.522", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.55", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|low_trust_league_cap", "fair_odds": "1.4", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — ESTRELA AMADORA vs FARENSE: Over 1.5 @ 1.53\nOUTLOOK — ESTRELA AMADORA 1.15 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | FARENSE 1.47 expected (about 1 goal; 1-2 plausible) | Match 2.62 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — FARENSE is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.62 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 0-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — MEDIUM. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.844", "data_completeness_score": "0.8443", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.201", "dom_live_index": "0.201", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.144", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.141", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.122", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.129", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3818", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.6", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.95", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "10", "selection_regime_fit": "0.75", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.5575", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.0074", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.206", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.0949", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.3386", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.4335", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.0949", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.3386", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.4335", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.1467", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.4703", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.617", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0518", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1317", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1836", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.665427", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.299103", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.737787", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.38679", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.698782", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.439019", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.228308", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.020/0.988);h2h_total_adj=1.054", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.20;history_piecewise_offset=+0.100", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 1, 1, 2, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 3]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 3, 3]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 0, 2, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 1, 1, 2, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 3, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 0, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 0, 0, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 3, 3, 1, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 2, 1, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 1, 0, 3]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.748", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.894", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.3", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.775", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "ONE_SIDED_GOAL_DEPENDENCY", "second_goal_security": "0.681", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "1.0", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.775", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.4", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.38", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.96", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.83", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.83", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.75", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.125", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.125", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.0", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.125", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.125", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", 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"chronological_validation_rate": "", "publication_band": "", "secondary_track_only": "0", "main_ticket_selected": "0", "highest_stake": "0", "value_classification": "POSITIVE_VALUE", "effective_model_ev": "0.09548", "terminal_policy_failure": "", "v35_calibrated_direct_ou25": "", "high_goal_ceiling_score": "0.5955", "high_goal_ceiling_flag": "0", "promotion_evaluated": "1", "promotion_eligible": "1", "promotion_score": "0.604871", "promotion_rank": "1", "promotion_reject_reason": "", "line_selected": "1", "line_not_selected_reason": "", "ou25_line_upgrade_ready": "0", "aug06_market_rule": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "aug06_market_pass": "1", "aug06_stage": "after_all_promotions", "ou15_recent_value_signal": "0", "ou15_recent_value_reason": "", "minutes_to_kickoff": "717.04", "live_publication_eligible": "1", "live_publication_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "football_qualification_pass": "1", "football_qualification_status": "QUALIFIED", "football_qualification_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_pass": "1", "v61_operating_contract_status": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_market_role": "RELIABILITY_BACKBONE", "v61_operating_direct_rate": "0.8", "v61_operating_probability": "0.716", "v61_operating_source_conflict_caution": "0", "real_odds_verification_required": "1", "min_acceptable_real_odds": "1.4", "max_acceptable_real_odds": "1.59", "display_minimum_real_odds": "1.3", "display_maximum_real_odds": "1.59", "synthetic_price_display_pass": "1", "synthetic_price_execution_pass": "1", "executable_publication_pass": "1", "executable_publication_status": "EXECUTABLE", "executable_publication_reason": "PASS", "execution_price_role": "EXECUTION_BAND", "market_validation_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OU_RULE", "market_probability_status": "MODEL_ESTIMATE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_CALIBRATED", "secondary_value_eligible": "0", "legacy_gate_override_used": "0", "legacy_gate_override_reason": "", "v61_operating_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_perf_wr_long": "0.758741", "v64_perf_roi_long": "0.113077", "v64_market_performance_score": "0.710106", "v64_perf_n_60d": "286", "v64_perf_n_long": "286", "v64_perf_roi_21d": "0.080692", "v64_perf_roi_7d": "0.026627", "v64_market_performance_status": "CHRONOLOGICAL_PREMATCH_ROLLING", "v64_perf_roi_60d": "0.113077", "v64_perf_n_21d": "159", "v64_perf_wr_60d": "0.758741", "v64_perf_wr_21d": "0.72956", "v64_perf_wr_7d": "0.698795", "v64_perf_n_7d": "83", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling": "", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling_reason": "", "v64_adaptive_execution_pass": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_provisional": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_maturity": "", "v64_market_expression_score": "0.681282", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "0.0", "btts_context_ok": "0.0", "quant_score_f": "0.654256", "quant_ev_f": "0.095541", "quant_shape_f": "0.590874", "quant_ev_norm": "0.5586885714285715", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.346405", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "1", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_QUALIFIED_OU15_SYNTHETIC_CURVE", "settled_value_profile_pass": "0.0", "settled_value_profile_reason": "NOT_HISTORY_VALUE_RECOVERY_MARKET", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "1.0", "safer_market_available": "OU OVER 1.5", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "0.346405", "market_portfolio_score": "0.516749", "prob": "0.716", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.6556", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.9655", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.3836", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.5664", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.7956", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.5664", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.2224", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.2", "h2h_low_total_sample": "10.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.2516", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half profile looks slower, so the goal angle is stronger over the full match than early.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "MARKET_CONFIDENCE_VALUE", "terminal_approved_route": "1.0", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "CORE_RELIABILITY", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.716", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.730101", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.53", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.346405", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.83925", "current_performance_value_score": "0.691033", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.8", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.2", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.2", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "0.1215", "current_performance_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "14.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.8571", "league_history_roi": "0.5321", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "POSITIVE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4858,btts_xg=0.6440,odds=1.53)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4858,btts_xg=0.6440,odds=1.53)", "ticket_use": "CORE VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "CORE", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Secondary or separate ticket", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "QUALIFIED_RELIABILITY", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3464052287581699", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5526695009803921", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.730101", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.26", "away_blank_risk": "0.0", "max_blank_risk": "0.26", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.7799", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.0", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.2641", "p_total_le2": "0.5142", "p_exactly2": "0.2501", "winner_quality_score": "0.6316", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5992", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.6399", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.767", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.51", "winner_consistency_score": "0.4779", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8465", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.664", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.724041", "soft_warning_count": "0", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "none", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.590847", "winning_chance_score": "0.700866", "value_opportunity_score": "0.593761", "winning_chance_rank": "4", "value_opportunity_rank": "27", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4858,btts_xg=0.6440,odds=1.53)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "MEDIUM", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary prediction with attractive value", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=SECONDARY; final_quality=SECONDARY; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.716; conf=0.716; quant=0.654; winner_quality=0.599; reliability=0.724; variance=0.382; hist_net=0.718; hist_risk=0.218; support=0.705; warnings=0/0/0; lose_risk=2; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4858,btts_xg=0.6440,odds=1.53); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.682573", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.553873", "publication_rank_score": "0.646537", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "10", "publication_value_rank": "10", "league_market_history_bets": "3", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "13.6", "league_market_history_roi": "0.4533", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE RELIABILITY", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.730101", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.682573", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.53. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk MEDIUM; reliability role CORE RELIABILITY; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 72%; reliability score 68%; profile similarity 73/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — ESTRELA AMADORA 1.15 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.09), FARENSE 1.47 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.34), match 2.62 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: ESTRELA AMADORA 1+ 68% / 2+ 32%; FARENSE 1+ 77% / 2+ 43%. Match: 2+ 74%, 3+ 49%, 4+ 27%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (12%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 68%; recent O1.5 support 80%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 68% (MODERATE). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — U23 Championship / OU OVER 1.5: 3-0 from 3 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +45.3%); very small sample. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 55%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Evidence-value score 69%, historical profile 73%, price-value index 35%. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.617", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.617", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.4703", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1231139060943481", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.1467", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0576449102251978", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1034100349969567", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "224", "v65_alternative_scores": "0-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3209847516937045", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.1467", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.4703", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "452ca27b4702190f", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "BANBURY UNITED vs LEIGHTON TOWN", "league": "Southern Football League,premier Division Central", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7127", "prediction_odds": "1.46", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6849", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.4", "prediction_edge_pct": "2.78", "prediction_ev": "0.0406", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.368496", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.368496", "draw_probability_raw": "0.277296", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.277296", "direction_gap": "0.014288", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.15879", "draw_risk_score": "0.664343", "draw_resistance_score": "0.090407", "source_agreement_count": "2", "source_evidence_count": "3", "source_agreement_score": "0.666667", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.34655", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "high_draw_risk|weak_draw_resistance|weak_source_agreement|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.3685", "draw_prob": "0.2773", "away_win_prob": "0.3542", "home_odds": "2.0", "draw_odds": "3.15", "away_odds": "3.4", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.375135", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.264674", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.360191", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.368496", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.277296", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.354208", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.368496", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.277296", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.354208", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.3092", "expected_away_goals": "1.2774", "expected_total_goals": "2.5866", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.3092", "away_goal_lambda": "1.2774", "match_goal_lambda": "2.5866", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1259", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.27", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2788", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.5866", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.294", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.294", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.557437", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.506162", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.629,recent_scoring_conceding:0.212,form_momentum:0.189", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.25", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.095", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.73", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3764", "home_prob_3plus": "0.145", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7212", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3651", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1377", "match_prob_2plus": "0.73", "match_prob_3plus": "0.4782", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2611", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.5866", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.73", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.4782", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2611", "ou25_probability_band": "weak", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.1869", "direction_abs_score": "0.1869", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.6013", "direction_gap_quality": "MODERATE", "direction_market_edge": "0.6868", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8377", "direction_xg_edge": "0.0622", "direction_form_edge": "-0.8737", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.6014", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.7743", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5265", "btts_outlook": "BTTS not expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.625", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.9809", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.447", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.5", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.4", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.6", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.6685", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.9757", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.3092", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.2774", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.5866", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.0318", "losing_pick_risk_score": "4", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_tempo|high_blank_risk|low_scoring_consistency", "probability_raw": "0.73", "probability": "0.7127", "confidence_model": "0.6879", "performance_confidence": "0.7127", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.3826", "confidence_gate": "0.7127", "model_conf_raw": "0.6879", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7127", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7127", "confidence": "0.7127", "market_performance_confidence": "0.480639", "market_performance_score": "48.06", "market_performance_score_base": "48.06", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.537143", "confidence_route_component": "0.174286", "confidence_environment_component": "0.559893", "confidence_safety_component": "0.620714", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.796061", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 54%; route 17%; environment 56%; safety 62%; probability 80%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.46", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6849", "edge_p": "0.0278", "edge_pct": "2.78", "ev": "0.0406", "quant_shape_score": "0.591588", "quant_ev": "0.040615", "quant_score": "0.591127", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.789", "historical_risk_score": "0.251", "historical_net_score": "0.676", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.36", "best_goal_market_support": "0.738", "market_history_support": "0.738", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.985", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.5", "combined_over35_rate": "0.3", "combined_btts_rate": "0.5", "ou15_history_support": "0.738", "ou25_history_support": "0.456", "ou35_history_support": "0.216", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.544", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.412", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.709", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.202", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.516", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.6", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.69", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3463", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.4", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — BANBURY UNITED vs LEIGHTON TOWN: Over 1.5 @ 1.46\nOUTLOOK — BANBURY UNITED 1.31 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | LEIGHTON TOWN 1.28 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 2.59 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — LEIGHTON TOWN is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.59 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 2-1, 1-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.87", "data_completeness_score": "0.844", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.674", "dom_live_index": "0.674", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.625", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.283", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.3", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.269", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3438", "h2h_goals_avg": "1.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.307", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "0.75", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.5339", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.2121", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.9623", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.2095", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.1801", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.3896", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.2095", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.1801", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.3896", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.3092", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.2774", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.5866", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0997", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0973", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.197", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "HOME_CANONICAL_DIRECTION_PRESERVED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.701654", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.340804", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.692752", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.330169", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.689288", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.427572", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.219106", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.067/0.960)", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.25;history_piecewise_offset=+0.095", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 1, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 1, 2, 5]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 4, 1, 2, 6]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 2, 0, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 1, 2, 5]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 4, 1, 2, 6]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 2, 0, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 0, 0, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 0, 4, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 5, 0, 5, 3]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 2, 0, 0]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "0.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "3.0", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.789", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "goal_floor_score": "0.668", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55|ONE_SIDED_GOAL_DEPENDENCY", "second_goal_security": "0.456", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.4", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.0", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.566", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.4", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.79", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.83", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.67", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.93", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.805", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.062", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.313", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.376", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.25", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.376", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": 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"rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "0", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_VALUE_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_MARKET_MIN", "settled_value_profile_pass": "0.0", "settled_value_profile_reason": "VALUE_MARKET_CONFIDENCE_FAILED", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "1.0", "safer_market_available": "OU OVER 1.5", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "0.315068", "market_portfolio_score": "0.406283", "prob": "0.7127", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.492", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.8318", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.0753", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.4427", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.6397", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.4427", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.315", "h2h_low_total_rate": "1.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "1.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.2572", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half profile looks slower, so the goal angle is stronger over the full match than early.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "AUG06_AUTHORITATIVE_PROFILE", "terminal_approved_route": "1.0", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "CORE_RELIABILITY", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.7127", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.480639", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.46", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.315068", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.69225", "current_performance_value_score": "0.592453", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.8", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "0.2155", "current_performance_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "13.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.4615", "league_history_roi": "-0.3562", "league_history_guard": "watch", "league_history_label": "BELOW_50_WARNING", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4782,btts_xg=0.6685,odds=1.46)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4782,btts_xg=0.6685,odds=1.46)", "ticket_use": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class": "WATCH", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Track only", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3150684931506849", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.4731303906392693", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.46", "away_blank_risk": "0.06", "max_blank_risk": "0.46", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.9757", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.8", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "0.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "3.0", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.27", "p_total_le2": "0.5218", "p_exactly2": "0.2518", "winner_quality_score": "0.5684", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5621", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.6113", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.567", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.422", "winner_consistency_score": "0.306", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8795", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.7", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.713824", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "high_blank_risk", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.431058", "winning_chance_score": "0.561383", "value_opportunity_score": "0.457939", "winning_chance_rank": "30", "value_opportunity_rank": "47", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4782,btts_xg=0.6685,odds=1.46)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "WATCH", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=WATCH; final_quality=WATCH; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.713; conf=0.713; quant=0.591; winner_quality=0.562; reliability=0.714; variance=0.344; hist_net=0.676; hist_risk=0.251; support=0.738; warnings=1/0/1; lose_risk=4; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4782,btts_xg=0.6685,odds=1.46); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "1.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "MISSING_H2H_RANK_DOWNGRADE|MISSING_H2H_RANK_DOWNGRADE", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "1.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.5918", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.03", "publication_value_priority": "0.403318", "publication_rank_score": "0.539025", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "20", "publication_value_rank": "26", "league_market_history_bets": "5", "league_market_history_wins": "4", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.8", "league_market_history_profit": "9.3", "league_market_history_roi": "0.186", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "WATCH", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.480639", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.5918", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.46. | TICKET — live use WATCH; quality WATCH; risk HIGH; reliability role WATCH; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 71%; reliability score 59%; profile similarity 48/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — BANBURY UNITED 1.31 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.21), LEIGHTON TOWN 1.28 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.18), match 2.59 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: BANBURY UNITED 1+ 73% / 2+ 38%; LEIGHTON TOWN 1+ 72% / 2+ 37%. Match: 2+ 73%, 3+ 48%, 4+ 26%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (13%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 46%; recent O1.5 support 80%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 59% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League,premier Division Central / OU OVER 1.5: 4-1 from 5 settled published CTM picks (80%, ROI +18.6%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 40%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — league is on CTM watch; weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / WATCH / GOOD VALUE. Evidence-value score 59%, historical profile 48%, price-value index 32%. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.5866", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.5866", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.2774", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1258887152983762", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.3092", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0190387924528301", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0960359622641509", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "276", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-0, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3205964330873385", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.3092", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.2774", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_use_internal": "WATCH", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "ae89fc61151c0b82", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 16:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 18:00:00", "match": "ISA TOWN vs UM ALHASSAM", "league": "2nd Division", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7075", "prediction_odds": "1.55", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6452", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.41", "prediction_edge_pct": "6.23", "prediction_ev": "0.0966", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.392116", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.392116", "draw_probability_raw": "0.268605", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.268605", "direction_gap": "0.052837", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.150773", "draw_risk_score": "0.609581", "draw_resistance_score": "0.016357", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.650768", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap|high_uncertainty", "home_win_prob": "0.3393", "draw_prob": "0.2686", "away_win_prob": "0.3921", "home_odds": "2.65", "draw_odds": "2.95", "away_odds": "2.55", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.332648", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.256196", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.411155", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.339279", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.268605", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.392116", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.339279", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.268605", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.392116", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.2726", "expected_away_goals": "1.4436", "expected_total_goals": "2.7162", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.2726", "away_goal_lambda": "1.4436", "match_goal_lambda": "2.7162", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1215", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2801", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2361", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.7162", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.275", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.274", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.469651", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.477886", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.490,recent_scoring_conceding:0.492,form_momentum:0.436", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.14", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.110", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7199", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3634", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1366", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7639", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4231", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1771", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7543", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5103", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2895", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.7162", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7543", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5103", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2895", "ou25_probability_band": "borderline", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.3613", "direction_abs_score": "0.3613", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9537", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.0606", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8013", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.2209", "direction_form_edge": "-0.1181", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.8113", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.64897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.55", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6259", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.9832", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.4863", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.5", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7122", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8815", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.2726", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.4436", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.7162", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.171", "losing_pick_risk_score": "5", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_control|low_tempo|soft_recent_direction|low_scoring_consistency", "probability_raw": "0.7543", "probability": "0.7075", "confidence_model": "0.5393", "performance_confidence": "0.7075", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.1875", "confidence_gate": "0.7075", "model_conf_raw": "0.5393", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7075", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7075", "confidence": "0.7075", "market_performance_confidence": "0.221451", "market_performance_score": "22.15", "market_performance_score_base": "30.15", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.1", "confidence_route_component": "0.28", "confidence_environment_component": "0.328179", "confidence_safety_component": "0.484", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.780303", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-5.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 10%; route 28%; environment 33%; safety 48%; probability 78%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.55", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6452", "edge_p": "0.0623", "edge_pct": "6.23", "ev": "0.0966", "quant_shape_score": "0.5357", "quant_ev": "0.096613", "quant_score": "0.45667", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.761", "historical_risk_score": "0.227", "historical_net_score": "0.659", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.279", "best_goal_market_support": "0.593", "market_history_support": "0.585", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.985", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.6", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.2", "combined_btts_rate": "0.5", "ou15_history_support": "0.585", "ou25_history_support": "0.522", "ou35_history_support": "0.144", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.541", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.523", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.593", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.178", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.46", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.65", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.41", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — ISA TOWN vs UM ALHASSAM: Over 1.5 @ 1.55\nOUTLOOK — ISA TOWN 1.27 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | UM ALHASSAM 1.44 expected (about 1 goal; 1-2 plausible) | Match 2.72 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — UM ALHASSAM is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.72 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou15_recent_value_cohort", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.7591", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.0", "dom_live_index": "0.0", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.0", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.158", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.018", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.113", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.5486", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.556", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.778", "h2h_confidence": "0.835", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "9", "selection_regime_fit": "0.625", "selection_regime_ok": "0", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_miss:min_conf<0.42,min_tempo<0.45,min_quality<0.42", "selection_value_boost": "0.4763", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.0732", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.2118", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.2018", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.313", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.5148", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.2018", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.313", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.5148", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.2726", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.4436", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.7162", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0708", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1306", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2014", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.699347", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.338023", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.730988", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.377776", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.715726", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.459978", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.245592", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;h2h_total_adj=1.033", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.14;history_piecewise_offset=+0.110", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 4, 1, 1, 0]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 2, 0, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 3, 1, 0, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 1, 0, 0, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 4, 1, 1, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 2, 0, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 3, 1, 0, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 1, 0, 0, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.356", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.166", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.571", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.571", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "goal_floor_score": "0.556", "goal_floor_status": "CAUTION", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.496", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.6", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.539", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.585", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.339", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.522", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.2", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "ISA TOWN", "away_team": "UM ALHASSAM", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.699", "away_attack_ratio": "0.714", "home_defense_ratio": "0.7", "away_defense_ratio": "1.511", "home_form_ratio": "1.178", "away_form_ratio": "1.2", "home_defense_form_ratio": "0.7", "away_defense_form_ratio": "0.889", "home_momentum": "1.2", "away_momentum": "2.0", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "home_rest_days": "12", "away_rest_days": "12", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.555555555555556", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "9.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.555555555555556", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.7777777777777778", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.8347011117784134", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "9.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "9", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.0", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.066", "xg_away_expected": "1.209", "xg_total_expected": "2.274", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.115", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.143", "market_home_win_prob": "0.34", "market_draw_prob": "0.306", "market_away_win_prob": "0.354", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.316", "api_reliability": "0.049", 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"v64_market_expression_score": "0.48517", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "", "btts_context_ok": "", "quant_score_f": "", "quant_ev_f": "", "quant_shape_f": "", "quant_ev_norm": "", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.354839", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "0", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_VALUE_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_MARKET_MIN", "settled_value_profile_pass": "", "settled_value_profile_reason": "", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "", "safer_market_available": "", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "", "market_portfolio_score": "", "prob": "0.7075", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.6612", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.6578", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.2327", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.4316", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.6595", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.4316", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.2827", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.1111", "h2h_low_total_sample": "9.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.2581", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half profile looks slower, so the goal angle is stronger over the full match than early.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "", "terminal_approved_route": "", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "0.0", "league_history_win_rate": "", "league_history_roi": "", "league_history_guard": "unknown", "league_history_label": "NO_HISTORY", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "0.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "0.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU15_RECENT_VALUE_COHORT", "v657_recovery_provisional": "0.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5103,btts_xg=0.7122,odds=1.55)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5103,btts_xg=0.7122,odds=1.55)", "ticket_use": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class": "WATCH", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Track only", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3548387096774194", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.4013395231182796", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.26", "away_blank_risk": "0.34", "max_blank_risk": "0.34", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8815", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.4", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.2457", "p_total_le2": "0.4897", "p_exactly2": "0.2439", "winner_quality_score": "0.5213", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.4705", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.5961", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.633", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.3595", "winner_consistency_score": "0.2375", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7813", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.3613", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.70734", "soft_warning_count": "3", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency|soft_recent_direction|weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.377952", "winning_chance_score": "0.523447", "value_opportunity_score": "0.515977", "winning_chance_rank": "32", "value_opportunity_rank": "41", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5103,btts_xg=0.7122,odds=1.55)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "WATCH", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=WATCH; final_quality=WATCH; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.708; conf=0.708; quant=0.457; winner_quality=0.470; reliability=0.707; variance=0.549; hist_net=0.659; hist_risk=0.227; support=0.585; warnings=3/0/0; lose_risk=5; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.5103,btts_xg=0.7122,odds=1.55); v61_quality_cap=V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.353148", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.354664", "publication_rank_score": "0.353572", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "33", "publication_value_rank": "33", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "WATCH", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.221451", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.353148", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.55. | TICKET — live use WATCH; quality WATCH; risk HIGH; reliability role WATCH; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 71%; reliability score 35%; profile similarity 22/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — ISA TOWN 1.27 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.20), UM ALHASSAM 1.44 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.31), match 2.72 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: ISA TOWN 1+ 72% / 2+ 36%; UM ALHASSAM 1+ 76% / 2+ 42%. Match: 2+ 75%, 3+ 51%, 4+ 29%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (12%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor CAUTION; second-goal security 50%; recent O1.5 support 60%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 35% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — no settled CTM league-market record is available yet for 2nd Division. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 35%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / WATCH / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.7162", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.7162", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.4436", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1214809335054268", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.2726", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0017299420397089", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0580953878406708", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "282", "v65_alternative_scores": "0-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3046247220918432", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.2726", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.4436", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_use_internal": "WATCH", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "bd0f9ad3e5a27c7d", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "NORTHAMPTON vs TRANMERE", "league": "LEAGUE TWO", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.7054", "prediction_odds": "1.49", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6711", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.42", "prediction_edge_pct": "3.43", "prediction_ev": "0.051", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home lean", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.407309", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.407309", "draw_probability_raw": "0.276351", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.276351", "direction_gap": "0.090969", "outlook_direction_score": "0.094062", "draw_risk_score": "0.552406", "draw_resistance_score": "0.210608", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "3", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.409984", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.4073", "draw_prob": "0.2764", "away_win_prob": "0.3163", "home_odds": "2.2", "draw_odds": "3.1", "away_odds": "3.1", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.403692", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.263706", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.332602", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.407309", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.276351", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.31634", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.407309", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.276351", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.31634", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.3699", "expected_away_goals": "1.2183", "expected_total_goals": "2.5882", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.3699", "away_goal_lambda": "1.2183", "match_goal_lambda": "2.5882", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1254", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2541", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2957", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.5882", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.3", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.301", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.54142", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.53931", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.585,recent_scoring_conceding:0.557,form_momentum:0.530", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.18", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.094", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7459", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3977", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1593", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7043", "away_prob_2plus": "0.344", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1245", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7303", "match_prob_3plus": "0.4786", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2614", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.5882", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7303", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.4786", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2614", "ou25_probability_band": "weak", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "0.0769", "direction_abs_score": "0.0769", "direction_side": "NEUTRAL", "direction_confidence": "0.419", "direction_gap_quality": "NO_EDGE", "direction_market_edge": "0.4971", "direction_team_edge": "-0.5355", "direction_xg_edge": "0.0836", "direction_form_edge": "0.4193", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.0913", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.7743", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5253", "btts_outlook": "BTTS not expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6193", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.9657", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6285", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.7", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "1.0", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.0", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.652", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8894", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.3699", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.2183", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.5882", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.1516", "losing_pick_risk_score": "3", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|low_tempo|soft_recent_direction", "probability_raw": "0.7303", "probability": "0.7054", "confidence_model": "0.648", "performance_confidence": "0.7054", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.2726", "confidence_gate": "0.7054", "model_conf_raw": "0.648", "perf_conf_raw": "0.7054", "gate_conf_raw": "0.7054", "confidence": "0.7054", "market_performance_confidence": "0.59428", "market_performance_score": "59.43", "market_performance_score_base": "59.43", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.754286", "confidence_route_component": "0.37", "confidence_environment_component": "0.703417", "confidence_safety_component": "0.480571", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.773939", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 75%; route 37%; environment 70%; safety 48%; probability 77%", "confidence_stars": "4", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "1.49", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6711", "edge_p": "0.0343", "edge_pct": "3.43", "ev": "0.051", "quant_shape_score": "0.549868", "quant_ev": "0.051046", "quant_score": "0.605722", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.819", "historical_risk_score": "0.211", "historical_net_score": "0.724", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.679", "best_goal_market_support": "0.814", "market_history_support": "0.814", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.987", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.9", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.6", "combined_btts_rate": "0.7", "ou15_history_support": "0.814", "ou25_history_support": "0.667", "ou35_history_support": "0.432", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.689", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.625", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.708", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.429", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.44", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "1.0", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.69", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.6612", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.42", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — NORTHAMPTON vs TRANMERE: Over 1.5 @ 1.49\nOUTLOOK — NORTHAMPTON 1.37 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | TRANMERE 1.22 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 2.59 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (LAMBDA_DIRECTION_UNCONFIRMED).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.59 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals. The evidence supports at least two goals in the match.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 2-1, 1-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — MEDIUM. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_ou15_balanced_release", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.87", "data_completeness_score": "0.8651", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.277", "dom_live_index": "0.277", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.207", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.228", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.113", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.182", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3552", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.125", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.947", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "8", "selection_regime_fit": "0.75", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.5446", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.1734", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.9938", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.2844", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.0972", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.3816", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.2844", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.0972", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.3816", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.3699", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.2183", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.5882", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0855", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1211", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2066", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.723183", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.36764", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.666196", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.299945", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.687531", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.425477", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.21744", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.028/0.983);h2h_total_adj=0.994", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.18;history_piecewise_offset=+0.094", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 1, 1, 0, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 4, 1, 3]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[5, 7, 2, 3, 3]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 1, 1, 0, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 4, 1, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[5, 7, 2, 3, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 0, 0, 2, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 3, 3, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 3, 1, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 3, 1, 2, 1]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "0.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.632", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "goal_floor_score": "0.634", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.466", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.0", "away_2plus_route": "0.2", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.76", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.98", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.72", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.61", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.767", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.062", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.376", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.125", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.062", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.376", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.9", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.558", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.814", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.358", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.667", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "NORTHAMPTON", "away_team": "TRANMERE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "api", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.363", "away_attack_ratio": "0.734", "home_defense_ratio": "0.682", "away_defense_ratio": "0.759", "home_form_ratio": "1.2", "away_form_ratio": "1.066", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.28", "away_defense_form_ratio": "2.208", "home_momentum": "0.0", "away_momentum": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.125", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "8.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.125", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.7981034820053446", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "8.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.125", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.7364028618842733", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "10.8", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "8", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.277", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.045", "xg_home_expected": "1.177", "xg_away_expected": "1.123", "xg_total_expected": "2.301", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.075", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "0.0", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", 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"0.375", "h2h_low_total_sample": "8.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.2516", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half profile looks slower, so the goal angle is stronger over the full match than early.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "AUG06_AUTHORITATIVE_PROFILE", "terminal_approved_route": "1.0", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "CORE_RELIABILITY", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.7054", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.59428", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.49", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.328859", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.6432", "current_performance_value_score": "0.635966", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.9", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.4", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": 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"main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4786,btts_xg=0.6520,odds=1.49)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4786,btts_xg=0.6520,odds=1.49)", "ticket_use": "CORE VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "CORE", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Secondary or separate ticket", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3288590604026845", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5092912757270692", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.28", "away_blank_risk": "0.14", "max_blank_risk": "0.28", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8893", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "0.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.0", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.2697", "p_total_le2": "0.5214", "p_exactly2": "0.2517", "winner_quality_score": "0.6125", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5888", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.7077", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.666", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.461", "winner_consistency_score": "0.58", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8572", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4118", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.725382", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "soft_recent_direction", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.608219", "winning_chance_score": "0.699488", "value_opportunity_score": "0.535192", "winning_chance_rank": "7", "value_opportunity_rank": "39", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4786,btts_xg=0.6520,odds=1.49)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "MEDIUM", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary prediction with attractive value", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=SECONDARY; final_quality=SECONDARY; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.705; conf=0.705; quant=0.606; winner_quality=0.589; reliability=0.725; variance=0.355; hist_net=0.724; hist_risk=0.211; support=0.814; warnings=1/0/0; lose_risk=3; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4786,btts_xg=0.6520,odds=1.49); v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "1.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "MISSING_H2H_RANK_DOWNGRADE|MISSING_H2H_RANK_DOWNGRADE", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "1.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.612579", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.03", "publication_value_priority": "0.435055", "publication_rank_score": "0.562872", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "19", "publication_value_rank": "23", "league_market_history_bets": "1", "league_market_history_wins": "1", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "5.2", "league_market_history_roi": "0.52", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE RELIABILITY", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.59428", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 + market profile + validated combination + model probability >=70%.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.612579", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.49. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk MEDIUM; reliability role CORE RELIABILITY; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 71%; reliability score 61%; profile similarity 59/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — NORTHAMPTON 1.37 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.28), TRANMERE 1.22 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.10), match 2.59 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: NORTHAMPTON 1+ 75% / 2+ 40%; TRANMERE 1+ 70% / 2+ 34%. Match: 2+ 73%, 3+ 48%, 4+ 26%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (13%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 47%; recent O1.5 support 90%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 + market profile + validated combination + model probability >=70%. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 61% (MODERATE). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — LEAGUE TWO / OU OVER 1.5: 1-0 from 1 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +52.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 44%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Evidence-value score 64%, historical profile 59%, price-value index 33%. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.5882", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.5882", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.2183", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1254302049275741", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.3699", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0392184957001668", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1144900975484533", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "270", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-0, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3199468877775062", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.3699", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.2183", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "e6ba929b4f7eb06c", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 12:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 14:00:00", "match": "FLEETWOOD TOWN vs BARNSLEY", "league": "Professional Development League", "market": "BTTS", "selection": "Yes", "prediction_label": "BTTS Yes", "prediction_market": "BTTS", "prediction_selection": "YES", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "BOTH TEAMS", "prediction_probability": "0.6997", "prediction_odds": "1.66", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6024", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.43", "prediction_edge_pct": "9.73", "prediction_ev": "0.1615", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "btts_yes_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "2", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.419335", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.419335", "draw_probability_raw": "0.228033", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.228033", "direction_gap": "0.066704", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.176413", "draw_risk_score": "0.546662", "draw_resistance_score": "0.174496", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.545906", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.3526", "draw_prob": "0.228", "away_win_prob": "0.4193", "home_odds": "2.45", "draw_odds": "3.5", "away_odds": "2.35", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.357035", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.217678", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.425287", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.352631", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.228033", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.419335", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.352631", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.228033", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.419335", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.7294", "expected_away_goals": "1.8987", "expected_total_goals": "3.6281", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.7294", "away_goal_lambda": "1.8987", "match_goal_lambda": "3.6281", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0872", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1774", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1498", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.628", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "3.168", "processor_raw_goal_total": "3.169", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.469612", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.476149", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.490,recent_scoring_conceding:0.453,form_momentum:0.470", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.19", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.086", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8226", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5158", "home_prob_3plus": "0.2505", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8502", "away_prob_2plus": "0.5659", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2959", "match_prob_2plus": "0.877", "match_prob_3plus": "0.7022", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4907", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.6281", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.877", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.7022", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4907", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.3222", "direction_abs_score": "0.3222", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9332", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.0704", "direction_team_edge": "-0.7948", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.2088", "direction_form_edge": "-0.0133", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.534", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.83215", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6994", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7748", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.4909", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.892", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.9", "btts_scoring_floor": "1.0", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.0", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.9822", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.9108", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.7294", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.8987", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.628", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "Supported by xG: both teams carry scoring threat (home 1.73, away 1.90, total 3.63).", "xg_support_score": "1.0", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.1693", "losing_pick_risk_score": "3", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|soft_recent_direction|extreme_tempo_volatility", "probability_raw": "0.6994", "probability": "0.6997", "confidence_model": "0.5773", "performance_confidence": "0.6997", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6589", "confidence_gate": "0.6997", "model_conf_raw": "0.5773", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6997", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6997", "confidence": "0.6997", "market_performance_confidence": "0.966405", "market_performance_score": "96.64", "market_performance_score_base": "96.64", "market_confidence_band": "ELITE", "market_confidence_method": "BTTS_HISTORY_DUAL_ROUTE_BLANK_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.75", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "1.0", "confidence_route_component": "0.928571", "confidence_environment_component": "1.0", "confidence_safety_component": "1.0", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.756667", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 100%; route 93%; environment 100%; safety 100%; probability 76%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "1.66", "odds_expected_col": "btts_yes_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6024", "edge_p": "0.0973", "edge_pct": "9.73", "ev": "0.1615", "quant_shape_score": "0.696996", "quant_ev": "0.161499", "quant_score": "0.688632", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.87", "historical_risk_score": "0.242", "historical_net_score": "0.761", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.458", "best_goal_market_support": "1.0", "market_history_support": "0.933", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.996", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "1.0", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.7", "combined_btts_rate": "0.9", "ou15_history_support": "1.0", "ou25_history_support": "0.853", "ou35_history_support": "0.627", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.933", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.784", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.937", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.579", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.647", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.575", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.43", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — FLEETWOOD TOWN vs BARNSLEY: BTTS Yes @ 1.66\nOUTLOOK — FLEETWOOD TOWN 1.73 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | BARNSLEY 1.90 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.63 expected (about 4 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — BARNSLEY is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — FLEETWOOD TOWN is expected to score about 2 goals (1.73 average; 1-3 plausible). BARNSLEY is expected to score about 2 goals (1.90 average; 1-3 plausible). This pick needs both teams to score.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM BTTS Yes picks: 88/134 won (66%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: one of the teams fails to score.\nVERDICT — BET — BTTS Yes is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_btts_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.865", "data_completeness_score": "0.8625", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.0", "dom_live_index": "0.0", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.028", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.982", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.865", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.952", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.5856", "h2h_goals_avg": "4.833", "h2h_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.889", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "6", "selection_regime_fit": "0.8333", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6116", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.4709", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.6612", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.5896", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.7489", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.3385", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.5896", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.7489", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.3385", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.7294", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.8987", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.6281", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1398", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1498", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2895", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.795993", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.471703", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.826035", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.521787", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.846026", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.648247", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.428151", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;h2h_total_adj=1.071", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.19;history_piecewise_offset=+0.086", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 3, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 4, 1, 1, 4]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 4, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 5, 2, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 3, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 4, 1, 1, 4]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 4, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 5, 2, 2, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 0, 1, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 6, 5, 6, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 4, 2, 2, 3]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 0, 5, 0, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.8", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.095", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.375", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.855", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.751", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "1.0", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.894", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.76", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.83", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.83", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.83", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.812", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.1", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.187", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.155", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.313", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.313", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "1.0", "ou15_xg_market_support": "1.0", "ou15_combined_market_support": "1.0", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.978", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.853", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "FLEETWOOD TOWN", "away_team": "BARNSLEY", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.997", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.882", "away_attack_ratio": "1.339", "home_defense_ratio": "0.521", "away_defense_ratio": "0.877", "home_form_ratio": "1.067", "away_form_ratio": "1.067", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.042", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.238", "home_momentum": "0.8", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "10", "away_rest_days": "11", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "4.833333333333333", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "6.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "4.833333333333333", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.6988057880877978", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "6.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "4.833333333333333", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.6321205588285577", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "8.1", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "6", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.0", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.49", "xg_away_expected": "1.678", "xg_total_expected": "3.169", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.156", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.188", "market_home_win_prob": "0.365", "market_draw_prob": "0.255", "market_away_win_prob": "0.38", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.513", "api_reliability": "0.997", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.804", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.5", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "2.688", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.938", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "2.8", "away_form_avg_scored": "2.0", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.4", 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"weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "", "safer_market_available": "", "published_market_role": "SECONDARY_BTTS_VALUE_ONLY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "", "market_portfolio_score": "", "prob": "0.6997", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.847", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.9775", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.4729", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.5932", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.9099", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.5932", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.083", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "6.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.4391", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half estimate is unvalidated and is not used to promote this full-time pick.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "", "terminal_approved_route": "", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "SECONDARY_BTTS_VALUE_ONLY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN", "v61_market_expression_decision": "PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "0", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "QUALIFIED_ALTERNATIVE", "league_history_bets": "7.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.8571", "league_history_roi": "0.2129", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "SMALL_SAMPLE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "0.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "BTTS_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_blocked_support_only", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Separate secondary ticket only; one selection per fixture; never a main/highest-stake anchor.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "SELECTIVE_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "540", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.631481", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5899972925298113", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.072037", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.2711933333333333", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3975903614457831", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5887883042168675", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "2.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_ALTERNATIVE", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.637931", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.908343", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.06", "away_blank_risk": "0.0", "max_blank_risk": "0.06", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.9108", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.0", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.123", "p_total_le2": "0.2978", "p_exactly2": "0.1748", "winner_quality_score": "0.718", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.76", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.966", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.9835", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.591", "winner_consistency_score": "0.3896", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8863", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.432", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.738128", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "extreme_tempo_volatility|soft_recent_direction", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.631201", "winning_chance_score": "0.713239", "value_opportunity_score": "0.683048", "winning_chance_rank": "3", "value_opportunity_rank": "15", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "BTTS_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "85", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.6823529412", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "0", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "27", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.7037037037", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:BTTS_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=85|ref_wr=0.6824|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.705697", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.480564", "publication_rank_score": "0.64266", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "2", "rank_number": "2", "rank_display": "#2", "publication_rank": "7", "publication_value_rank": "19", "league_market_history_bets": "1", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.0", "league_market_history_profit": "-10.0", "league_market_history_roi": "-1.0", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.966405", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "BTTS_NO_MATURE_HIGH_WIN_REFERENCE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "high_win_profile_reason": "BTTS remains a qualified/value market, but the supplied history does not justify a mature high-win label yet.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.705697", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.66. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 70%; reliability score 71%; profile similarity 97/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — FLEETWOOD TOWN 1.73 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.59), BARNSLEY 1.90 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.75), match 3.63 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: FLEETWOOD TOWN 1+ 82% / 2+ 52%; BARNSLEY 1+ 85% / 2+ 57%. Match: 2+ 88%, 3+ 70%, 4+ 49%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (9%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL ROUTES — FLEETWOOD TOWN 1+ 82% and BARNSLEY 1+ 85%; BTTS requires both scoring routes rather than one dominant supplier. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; direct BTTS support 80%; both sides must retain independent 1+ routes. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD. BTTS remains a qualified/value market, but the supplied history does not justify a mature high-win label yet. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 71% (STRONG). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Professional Development League / BTTS YES: 0-1 from 1 settled published CTM picks (0%, ROI -100.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 48%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Supported Alternative; settled synthetic-price curve n=540, win rate 63%, synthetic ROI 7%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).\nMARKET VALIDATION: RETROSPECTIVE_TWO_SIDED_VALUE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_VALIDATED; ticket-executable=1; secondary-value-eligible=1. Model confidence is an estimate, not a prospectively verified win rate. Verify actual bookmaker odds; synthetic ROI is not proven bookmaker profit.", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.6281", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.6281", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.8987", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0872344435699857", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.7294", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.1221120703024037", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0138040320496252", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "122", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 2-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2454820859281183", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.7294", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.8987", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "ELITE", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "e6ba929b4f7eb06c", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 12:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 14:00:00", "match": "FLEETWOOD TOWN vs BARNSLEY", "league": "Professional Development League", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6967", "prediction_odds": "1.82", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5495", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.44", "prediction_edge_pct": "14.73", "prediction_ev": "0.2681", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "2", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.419335", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.419335", "draw_probability_raw": "0.228033", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.228033", "direction_gap": "0.066704", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.176413", "draw_risk_score": "0.546662", "draw_resistance_score": "0.174496", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.545906", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.3526", "draw_prob": "0.228", "away_win_prob": "0.4193", "home_odds": "2.45", "draw_odds": "3.5", "away_odds": "2.35", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.357035", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.217678", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.425287", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.352631", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.228033", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.419335", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.352631", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.228033", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.419335", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.7294", "expected_away_goals": "1.8987", "expected_total_goals": "3.6281", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.7294", "away_goal_lambda": "1.8987", "match_goal_lambda": "3.6281", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0872", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1774", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1498", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.628", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "3.168", "processor_raw_goal_total": "3.169", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.469612", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.476149", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.490,recent_scoring_conceding:0.453,form_momentum:0.470", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.19", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.086", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8226", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5158", "home_prob_3plus": "0.2505", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8502", "away_prob_2plus": "0.5659", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2959", "match_prob_2plus": "0.877", "match_prob_3plus": "0.7022", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4907", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.6281", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.877", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.7022", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4907", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.3222", "direction_abs_score": "0.3222", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9332", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.0704", "direction_team_edge": "-0.7948", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.2088", "direction_form_edge": "-0.0133", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.534", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.83215", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6994", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7748", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.4909", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.892", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.9", "btts_scoring_floor": "1.0", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.0", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.9822", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.9108", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.7294", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.8987", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.628", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.1693", "losing_pick_risk_score": "5", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|soft_recent_direction|extreme_tempo_volatility|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.7022", "probability": "0.6967", "confidence_model": "0.5758", "performance_confidence": "0.6967", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6589", "confidence_gate": "0.6967", "model_conf_raw": "0.5758", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6967", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6967", "confidence": "0.6967", "market_performance_confidence": "0.908343", "market_performance_score": "90.83", "market_performance_score_base": "86.26", "market_confidence_band": "ELITE", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "1.0", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "1.0", "confidence_safety_component": "0.918333", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.747576", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_total_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_component_summary": "history 100%; route 62%; environment 100%; safety 92%; probability 75%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "VALUE", "odds": "1.82", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5495", "edge_p": "0.1473", "edge_pct": "14.73", "ev": "0.2681", "quant_shape_score": "0.668196", "quant_ev": "0.268063", "quant_score": "0.735892", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.87", "historical_risk_score": "0.242", "historical_net_score": "0.761", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.458", "best_goal_market_support": "1.0", "market_history_support": "0.853", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.996", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "1.0", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.7", "combined_btts_rate": "0.9", "ou15_history_support": "1.0", "ou25_history_support": "0.853", "ou35_history_support": "0.627", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.933", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.784", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.937", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.579", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.647", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.575", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.44", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — FLEETWOOD TOWN vs BARNSLEY: Over 2.5 @ 1.82\nOUTLOOK — FLEETWOOD TOWN 1.73 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | BARNSLEY 1.90 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.63 expected (about 4 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — BARNSLEY is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 4 total goals (3.63 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals. The evidence supports the third goal needed for Over 2.5.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.865", "data_completeness_score": "0.8625", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.0", "dom_live_index": "0.0", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.028", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.982", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.865", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.952", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.5856", "h2h_goals_avg": "4.833", "h2h_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.889", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "6", "selection_regime_fit": "0.8333", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6116", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.4709", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.6612", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.5896", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.7489", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.3385", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.5896", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.7489", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.3385", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.7294", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.8987", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.6281", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1398", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1498", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2895", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.795993", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.471703", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.826035", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.521787", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.846026", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.648247", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.428151", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;h2h_total_adj=1.071", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.19;history_piecewise_offset=+0.086", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 3, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 4, 1, 1, 4]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 4, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 5, 2, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 3, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 4, 1, 1, 4]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 4, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 5, 2, 2, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 0, 1, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 6, 5, 6, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 4, 2, 2, 3]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 0, 5, 0, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.8", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.095", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.375", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.855", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.751", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "1.0", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.894", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.76", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.83", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.83", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.83", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.812", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.1", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.187", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.155", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.313", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.313", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "1.0", "ou15_xg_market_support": "1.0", "ou15_combined_market_support": "1.0", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.978", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.853", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "FLEETWOOD TOWN", "away_team": "BARNSLEY", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.997", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.882", "away_attack_ratio": "1.339", "home_defense_ratio": "0.521", "away_defense_ratio": "0.877", "home_form_ratio": "1.067", "away_form_ratio": "1.067", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.042", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.238", "home_momentum": "0.8", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "10", "away_rest_days": "11", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "4.833333333333333", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "6.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "4.833333333333333", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.6988057880877978", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "6.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "4.833333333333333", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.6321205588285577", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "8.1", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "6", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.0", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.49", "xg_away_expected": "1.678", "xg_total_expected": "3.169", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.156", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.188", "market_home_win_prob": "0.365", "market_draw_prob": "0.255", "market_away_win_prob": "0.38", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.513", "api_reliability": "0.997", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.804", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.5", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "2.688", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.938", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "2.8", "away_form_avg_scored": "2.0", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.4", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.7", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.4", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.6", "home_recent_ga_avg": "2.8", "away_recent_gf_avg": "2.0", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.4", "home_scoring_std": "0.8", "away_scoring_std": "1.095", "home_conceding_std": "1.47", "away_conceding_std": "1.625", "match_goal_volatility": "1.247", "home_score_consistency": "0.543", "away_score_consistency": "0.374", "home_over15_rate": "1.0", "away_over15_rate": "1.0", "home_over25_rate": "0.8", "away_over25_rate": "0.8", "home_over35_rate": "0.8", "away_over35_rate": "0.6", "home_btts_rate_recent": "1.0", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.8", "home_attack_trend": "0.1", "away_attack_trend": "0.125", "home_defense_trend": "0.112", "away_defense_trend": "0.462", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.112", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.462", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.457", "defense_ratio_gap": "-0.356", "form_attack_gap": "0.0", "form_defense_gap": "0.197", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.563", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.363", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.256", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.381", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.516", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.003", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.745", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "4-2 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 3-3 | 2-4 | 3-2", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-02-10 | 2025-10-21 | 2025-03-11 | 2024-12-03 | 2024-01-09 | 2023-10-24", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"4-2\", \"1-2\", \"2-1\", \"3-3\", \"2-4\", \"3-2\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-02-10\", \"2025-10-21\", \"2025-03-11\", \"2024-12-03\", \"2024-01-09\", 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"positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": 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per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "PRIMARY_VALUE", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "464", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.637931", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5932335763262995", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.210194", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.5782088888888889", "synthetic_value_index": "0.4505494505494506", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.6730307342490842", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.637931", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.908343", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.06", "away_blank_risk": "0.0", "max_blank_risk": "0.06", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.9108", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.0", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.123", "p_total_le2": "0.2978", "p_exactly2": "0.1748", "winner_quality_score": "0.6899", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.7343", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.92", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.967", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.591", "winner_consistency_score": "0.3896", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8863", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.432", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.738128", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "extreme_tempo_volatility|soft_recent_direction", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.652576", "winning_chance_score": "0.693269", "value_opportunity_score": "0.788865", "winning_chance_rank": "11", "value_opportunity_rank": "5", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "2", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.761785", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.622962", "publication_rank_score": "0.722915", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "2", "publication_value_rank": "4", "league_market_history_bets": "3", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "20.7", "league_market_history_roi": "0.69", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.908343", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample).", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.761785", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.82. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 70%; reliability score 76%; profile similarity 91/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — FLEETWOOD TOWN 1.73 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.59), BARNSLEY 1.90 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.75), match 3.63 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: FLEETWOOD TOWN 1+ 82% / 2+ 52%; BARNSLEY 1+ 85% / 2+ 57%. Match: 2+ 88%, 3+ 70%, 4+ 49%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (9%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AWAY / BARNSLEY, STRONG; FLEETWOOD TOWN 2+ 52% vs BARNSLEY 2+ 57%; supplier gap 5pp; supplier reliability 61%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 75%; recent O2.5 support 80%; third-goal route 60% (STRONG). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample). | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 76% (STRONG). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Professional Development League / OU OVER 2.5: 3-0 from 3 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +69.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 62%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=464, win rate 64%, synthetic ROI 21%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.6281", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.6281", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.8987", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0872344435699857", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.7294", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.1221120703024037", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0138040320496252", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "122", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 2-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2454820859281183", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.7294", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.8987", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "ELITE", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "df5cbb93b9382d10", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 14:30:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 16:30:00", "match": "ASA TARGU MURES vs AFC CHINDIA TARGOVISTE", "league": "Liga 2", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6821", "prediction_odds": "1.54", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6494", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.47", "prediction_edge_pct": "3.27", "prediction_ev": "0.0504", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.383558", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.383558", "draw_probability_raw": "0.279768", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.279768", "direction_gap": "0.046885", "outlook_direction_score": "0.096031", "draw_risk_score": "0.620158", "draw_resistance_score": "0.120016", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.402078", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "high_draw_risk|weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.3836", "draw_prob": "0.2798", "away_win_prob": "0.3367", "home_odds": "3.15", "draw_odds": "3.0", "away_odds": "2.2", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.37776", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.2671", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.355139", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.383558", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.279768", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.336673", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.383558", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.279768", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.336673", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.2968", "expected_away_goals": "1.2489", "expected_total_goals": "2.5457", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.2968", "away_goal_lambda": "1.2489", "match_goal_lambda": "2.5457", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.127", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 0-1 (10%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2734", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2868", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.5457", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.303", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.303", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.480721", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.520392", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.411,recent_scoring_conceding:0.746,form_momentum:0.893", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.08", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.091", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7266", "home_prob_2plus": "0.372", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1421", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7132", "away_prob_2plus": "0.355", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1313", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7219", "match_prob_3plus": "0.4679", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2522", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.5457", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7219", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.4679", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2522", "ou25_probability_band": "weak", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "0.1163", "direction_abs_score": "0.1163", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.4585", "direction_gap_quality": "WEAK", "direction_market_edge": "-0.5107", "direction_team_edge": "0.3365", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.0758", "direction_form_edge": "0.8778", "direction_defence_edge": "0.7774", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.58897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5182", "btts_outlook": "BTTS not expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6067", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.9331", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.3778", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.4", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.4", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.6", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.6462", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.9631", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.2968", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.2489", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.5457", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.0478", "losing_pick_risk_score": "5", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_tempo|high_blank_risk|low_scoring_consistency", "probability_raw": "0.7219", "probability": "0.6821", "confidence_model": "0.5763", "performance_confidence": "0.6821", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.241", "confidence_gate": "0.6821", "model_conf_raw": "0.5763", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6821", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6821", "confidence": "0.6821", "market_performance_confidence": "0.0", "market_performance_score": "0.0", "market_performance_score_base": "22.8", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.328571", "confidence_route_component": "0.057143", "confidence_environment_component": "0.399994", "confidence_safety_component": "0.0", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.703333", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-27.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-25.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 33%; route 6%; environment 40%; safety 0%; probability 70%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.54", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6494", "edge_p": "0.0327", "edge_pct": "3.27", "ev": "0.0504", "quant_shape_score": "0.521262", "quant_ev": "0.050391", "quant_score": "0.403339", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.754", "historical_risk_score": "0.259", "historical_net_score": "0.637", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.36", "best_goal_market_support": "0.665", "market_history_support": "0.665", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.985", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.4", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.4", "ou15_history_support": "0.665", "ou25_history_support": "0.388", "ou35_history_support": "0.288", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.482", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.611", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.443", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.492", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.228", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.0", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.6", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3312", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.47", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — ASA TARGU MURES vs AFC CHINDIA TARGOVISTE: Over 1.5 @ 1.54\nOUTLOOK — ASA TARGU MURES 1.30 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | AFC CHINDIA TARGOVISTE 1.25 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 2.55 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — ASA TARGU MURES is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (2.55 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 2-1, 1-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou15_recent_value_cohort", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.7375", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.423", "dom_live_index": "0.423", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.492", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.169", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.058", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.121", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.4434", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.181", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "0.625", "selection_regime_ok": "0", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_miss:min_conf<0.42,min_tempo<0.45,min_quality<0.42", "selection_value_boost": "0.4608", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.0277", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.1101", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.2223", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.1265", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.3488", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.2223", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.1265", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.3488", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.2968", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.2489", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.5457", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0745", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1224", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1969", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.705448", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.345417", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.675834", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.310661", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.680244", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.416859", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.210646", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.042/0.975)", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.08;history_piecewise_offset=+0.091", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 6, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 0, 1, 3]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 1, 0, 0]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[5, 2, 3, 2, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 6, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 0, 1, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 1, 0, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[5, 2, 3, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.8", "away_recent_goal_avg": "0.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "0.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "2.227", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.667", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.667", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "goal_floor_score": "0.458", "goal_floor_status": "BLOCK", "goal_floor_hard_block": "1", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_60|SCORING_SPIKY_GE_65|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_45", "second_goal_security": "0.412", "second_goal_route_count": "0", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.4", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.0", "btts_1plus_route": "0.49", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.51", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.559", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.665", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.359", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.388", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "ASA TARGU MURES", "away_team": "AFC CHINDIA TARGOVISTE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.662", "away_attack_ratio": "0.982", "home_defense_ratio": "1.318", "away_defense_ratio": "0.735", "home_form_ratio": "1.6", "away_form_ratio": "0.291", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.13", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.125", "home_momentum": "1.4", "away_momentum": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "10", "away_rest_days": "10", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.1812692469220181", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "1.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "1", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.423", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.127", "xg_away_expected": "1.176", "xg_total_expected": "2.303", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.118", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.05", "market_home_win_prob": "0.287", "market_draw_prob": "0.302", "market_away_win_prob": "0.411", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.322", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.669", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.125", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.062", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.375", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "2.312", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.8", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "0.4", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.6", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.7", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.4", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.8", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "0.4", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.6", "home_scoring_std": "2.227", "away_scoring_std": "0.49", "home_conceding_std": "1.166", "away_conceding_std": "1.356", "match_goal_volatility": "1.31", "home_score_consistency": "0.0", "away_score_consistency": "0.72", "home_over15_rate": "0.6", "away_over15_rate": "0.8", "home_over25_rate": "0.4", "away_over25_rate": "0.4", "home_over35_rate": "0.4", "away_over35_rate": "0.4", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "home_attack_trend": "0.675", "away_attack_trend": "-0.975", "home_defense_trend": "0.138", "away_defense_trend": "0.288", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.138", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.288", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.32", "defense_ratio_gap": "0.583", "form_attack_gap": "1.309", "form_defense_gap": "-0.005", 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"PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "", "market_portfolio_score": "", "prob": "0.6821", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.6826", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.4795", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.4441", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.071", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.5721", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.4441", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.359", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "1.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.2397", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half profile looks slower, so the goal angle is stronger over the full match than early.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "", "terminal_approved_route": "", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "PRIMARY_RELIABILITY", "portfolio_selection_status": "PRIMARY_SELECTED", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SELECTED_PRIMARY", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "1", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "12.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.6667", "league_history_roi": "-0.0242", "league_history_guard": "watch", "league_history_label": "NEGATIVE_ROI_WARNING", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "0.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "0.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU15_RECENT_VALUE_COHORT", "v657_recovery_provisional": "0.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4679,btts_xg=0.6462,odds=1.54)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4679,btts_xg=0.6462,odds=1.54)", "ticket_use": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class": "WATCH", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Track only", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3506493506493506", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.3342758192640692", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.28", "away_blank_risk": "0.54", "max_blank_risk": "0.54", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.9631", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.8", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "0.4", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.278", "p_total_le2": "0.5321", "p_exactly2": "0.2541", "winner_quality_score": "0.5097", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.4759", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.5437", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.433", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.4", "winner_consistency_score": "0.306", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7813", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.58", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.702971", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency|weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "high_blank_risk", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.353586", "winning_chance_score": "0.431629", "value_opportunity_score": "0.41656", "winning_chance_rank": "44", "value_opportunity_rank": "50", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4679,btts_xg=0.6462,odds=1.54)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "WATCH", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=WATCH; final_quality=WATCH; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.682; conf=0.682; quant=0.403; winner_quality=0.476; reliability=0.703; variance=0.443; hist_net=0.637; hist_risk=0.259; support=0.665; warnings=2/0/1; lose_risk=5; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4679,btts_xg=0.6462,odds=1.54); v61_quality_cap=V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "STRUCTURAL_LOW_GOAL_WARNING", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.342832", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.31525", "publication_rank_score": "0.335109", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "34", "publication_value_rank": "35", "league_market_history_bets": "11", "league_market_history_wins": "8", "league_market_history_losses": "3", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.7273", "league_market_history_profit": "7.1", "league_market_history_roi": "0.0645", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "LIMITED SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "WATCH", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.0", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.342832", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.54. | TICKET — live use WATCH; quality WATCH; risk HIGH; reliability role WATCH; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 68%; reliability score 34%; profile similarity 0/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — ASA TARGU MURES 1.30 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.22), AFC CHINDIA TARGOVISTE 1.25 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.13), match 2.55 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: ASA TARGU MURES 1+ 73% / 2+ 37%; AFC CHINDIA TARGOVISTE 1+ 71% / 2+ 35%. Match: 2+ 72%, 3+ 47%, 4+ 25%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (13%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor BLOCK; second-goal security 41%; recent O1.5 support 70%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 34% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Liga 2 / OU OVER 1.5: 8-3 from 11 settled published CTM picks (73%, ROI +6.5%); limited sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 32%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — league is on CTM watch; weaker side blanked 60% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / WATCH / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.5457", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.5457", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.2489", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1270039431381344", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.2968", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0004323855389893", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.096874435941417", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "262", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-0, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3266330023035058", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.2968", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.2489", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_use_internal": "WATCH", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "2055b9b458c0988a", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "WELLING UNITED vs LEATHERHEAD", "league": "Isthmian League, Pr. Div", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6737", "prediction_odds": "2.09", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4785", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.48", "prediction_edge_pct": "19.53", "prediction_ev": "0.4081", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.523083", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.523083", "draw_probability_raw": "0.226584", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.226584", "direction_gap": "0.272749", "outlook_direction_score": "0.373329", "draw_risk_score": "0.298287", "draw_resistance_score": "0.722656", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.278918", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.5231", "draw_prob": "0.2266", "away_win_prob": "0.2503", "home_odds": "1.85", "draw_odds": "3.45", "away_odds": "3.5", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.536193", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.21317", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.250637", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.523083", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.226584", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.250334", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.523083", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.226584", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.250334", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.0489", "expected_away_goals": "1.3499", "expected_total_goals": "3.3988", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.0489", "away_goal_lambda": "1.3499", "match_goal_lambda": "3.3988", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0947", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1289", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2593", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.3988", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.772", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.771", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.603385", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.603385", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.654,recent_scoring_conceding:0.522,form_momentum:0.586", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.57", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.192", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8711", "home_prob_2plus": "0.6071", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3366", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7407", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3907", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1545", "match_prob_2plus": "0.853", "match_prob_3plus": "0.66", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4414", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.3988", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.853", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.66", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4414", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.2737", "direction_abs_score": "0.2737", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.7446", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.777", "direction_team_edge": "-0.2273", "direction_xg_edge": "0.355", "direction_form_edge": "0.2591", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.0993", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.77086", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6453", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7507", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3892", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6916", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "1.0", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.0", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.837", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.6588", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.0489", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.3499", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.3988", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.699", "losing_pick_risk_score": "4", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.66", "probability": "0.6737", "confidence_model": "0.6488", "performance_confidence": "0.6737", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6751", "confidence_gate": "0.6737", "model_conf_raw": "0.6488", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6737", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6737", "confidence": "0.6737", "market_performance_confidence": "0.303971", "market_performance_score": "30.4", "market_performance_score_base": "35.4", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.308571", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.559024", "confidence_safety_component": "0.437857", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.677879", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-5.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 31%; route 13%; environment 56%; safety 44%; probability 68%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "2.09", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4785", "edge_p": "0.1953", "edge_pct": "19.53", "ev": "0.4081", "quant_shape_score": "0.697527", "quant_ev": "0.408081", "quant_score": "0.679597", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.825", "historical_risk_score": "0.226", "historical_net_score": "0.724", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.279", "best_goal_market_support": "0.898", "market_history_support": "0.558", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.992", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.9", "combined_over25_rate": "0.5", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.898", "ou25_history_support": "0.558", "ou35_history_support": "0.325", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.69", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.726", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.672", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.513", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.468", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3312", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.48", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — WELLING UNITED vs LEATHERHEAD: Over 2.5 @ 2.09\nOUTLOOK — WELLING UNITED 2.05 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | LEATHERHEAD 1.35 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.40 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — WELLING UNITED is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.40 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.862", "data_completeness_score": "0.8424", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.594", "dom_live_index": "0.594", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.502", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.722", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.751", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.706", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.258", "h2h_goals_avg": "5.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.307", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "0.875", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6388", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6729", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.0996", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.8609", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.2232", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.0841", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.8609", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.2232", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.0841", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.0489", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.3499", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.3988", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.188", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1267", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3147", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.844467", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.555037", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.705713", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.345741", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.813066", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.595385", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.371603", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.059/0.964)", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.57;history_piecewise_offset=+0.192", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 3, 2, 5]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 0, 2, 2, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 4, 2, 3]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 0, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 3, 2, 5]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 0, 2, 2, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 4, 2, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 0, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 3, 1, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 2, 4, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 3, 2, 4]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 0, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.356", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.166", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.385", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.364", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.385", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "goal_floor_score": "0.773", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.496", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.6", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.75", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.93", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.7", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.81", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.797", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.438", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.293", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.063", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.25", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.438", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.9", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.894", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.898", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.5", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.694", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.558", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "WELLING UNITED", "away_team": "LEATHERHEAD", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.99", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.117", "away_attack_ratio": "1.206", "home_defense_ratio": "1.303", "away_defense_ratio": "1.388", "home_form_ratio": "1.342", "away_form_ratio": "1.067", "home_defense_form_ratio": "0.762", "away_defense_form_ratio": "0.64", "home_momentum": "2.6", "away_momentum": "2.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "5.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "5.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.1812692469220181", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "1.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "5.0", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.1535182751093858", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "1.35", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "1", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.594", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.53", "xg_away_expected": "1.242", "xg_total_expected": "2.771", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.108", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.288", "market_home_win_prob": "0.484", "market_draw_prob": "0.26", "market_away_win_prob": "0.256", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.447", "api_reliability": "0.99", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.745", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.938", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.312", "away_goals_scored_avg": "2.062", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.25", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.0", "away_form_avg_scored": "2.2", "away_form_avg_conceded": "0.8", 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"current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "8.0", "league_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_history_roi": "0.675", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "SMALL_SAMPLE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_blocked_support_only", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "704", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.605114", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5685273999602342", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.284915", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.7442555555555554", "synthetic_value_index": "0.5215311004784688", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.546772731738437", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "2.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.801897", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.818286", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.12", "away_blank_risk": "0.12", "max_blank_risk": "0.12", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.6588", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.8", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.147", "p_total_le2": "0.34", "p_exactly2": "0.193", "winner_quality_score": "0.6347", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6695", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.778", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.934", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.521", "winner_consistency_score": "0.2375", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8763", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4788", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.726208", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency|weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.6208", "winning_chance_score": "0.522767", "value_opportunity_score": "0.752445", "winning_chance_rank": "33", "value_opportunity_rank": "7", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.445565", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.490031", "publication_rank_score": "0.458015", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "28", "publication_value_rank": "18", "league_market_history_bets": "4", "league_market_history_wins": "4", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "40.2", "league_market_history_roi": "1.005", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.303971", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.446963", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.09. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 45%; profile similarity 30/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — WELLING UNITED 2.05 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.86), LEATHERHEAD 1.35 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.22), match 3.40 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: WELLING UNITED 1+ 87% / 2+ 61%; LEATHERHEAD 1+ 74% / 2+ 39%. Match: 2+ 85%, 3+ 66%, 4+ 44%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-1 (9%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — WELLING UNITED leans HOME, but direction is NOT CONFIRMED (LEAN); WELLING UNITED 2+ 61% vs LEATHERHEAD 2+ 39%; gap 22pp. Do not infer a TG1.5 selection from this O2.5 total. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 50%; recent O2.5 support 50%; third-goal route 40% (NOT_SELECTED_LINE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 45% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Isthmian League, Pr. Div / OU OVER 2.5: 4-0 from 4 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +100.5%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 49%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED|OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED|OU25_DIRECT_THREE_GOAL_HISTORY_WEAK); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.3988000000000005", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.3988000000000005", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.3499", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0946745046436139", "v65_central_score": "2-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.0489", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.1381357409591195", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0709015035377358", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "168", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-1, 2-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2572239213861572", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.0489", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.3499", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "aa5cb0e6c0eb5622", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "ALVECHURCH vs BROMSGROVE", "league": "Southern Football League,premier Division Central", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6725", "prediction_odds": "1.58", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6329", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.49", "prediction_edge_pct": "3.96", "prediction_ev": "0.0625", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.366379", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.366379", "draw_probability_raw": "0.283745", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.283745", "direction_gap": "0.016504", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.073381", "draw_risk_score": "0.674676", "draw_resistance_score": "0.0", "source_agreement_count": "2", "source_evidence_count": "3", "source_agreement_score": "0.666667", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.587577", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "high_draw_risk|weak_draw_resistance|weak_source_agreement|small_1x2_probability_gap|high_uncertainty", "home_win_prob": "0.3499", "draw_prob": "0.2837", "away_win_prob": "0.3664", "home_odds": "2.8", "draw_odds": "2.9", "away_odds": "2.4", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.340913", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.270834", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.388253", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.349876", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.283745", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.366379", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.349876", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.283745", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.366379", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.1911", "expected_away_goals": "1.2902", "expected_total_goals": "2.4813", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.1911", "away_goal_lambda": "1.2902", "match_goal_lambda": "2.4813", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1285", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.3039", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2752", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.4813", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.249", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.249", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.483228", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.492739", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.462,recent_scoring_conceding:0.516,form_momentum:0.602", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.07", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.086", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.6961", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3342", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1186", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7248", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3697", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1406", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7088", "match_prob_3plus": "0.4514", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2384", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.4813", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7088", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.4514", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2384", "ou25_probability_band": "weak", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.3732", "direction_abs_score": "0.3732", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9254", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.2373", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8454", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.1528", "direction_form_edge": "0.0905", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.7101", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5045", "btts_outlook": "BTTS not expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.5919", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.8962", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.4456", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.5", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.6072", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.9232", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.1911", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.2902", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.4813", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.099", "losing_pick_risk_score": "3", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_control|low_tempo", "probability_raw": "0.7088", "probability": "0.6725", "confidence_model": "0.5952", "performance_confidence": "0.6725", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.1343", "confidence_gate": "0.6725", "model_conf_raw": "0.5952", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6725", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6725", "confidence": "0.6725", "market_performance_confidence": "0.299801", "market_performance_score": "29.98", "market_performance_score_base": "43.98", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.514286", "confidence_route_component": "0.214286", "confidence_environment_component": "0.516018", "confidence_safety_component": "0.475143", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.674242", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-5.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "-6.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-14.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 51%; route 21%; environment 52%; safety 48%; probability 67%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.58", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6329", "edge_p": "0.0396", "edge_pct": "3.96", "ev": "0.0625", "quant_shape_score": "0.491165", "quant_ev": "0.062492", "quant_score": "0.475948", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.807", "historical_risk_score": "0.18", "historical_net_score": "0.726", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.58", "best_goal_market_support": "0.73", "market_history_support": "0.73", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.985", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.4", "combined_over35_rate": "0.1", "combined_btts_rate": "0.5", "ou15_history_support": "0.73", "ou25_history_support": "0.376", "ou35_history_support": "0.072", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.556", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.596", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.582", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.33", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.377", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.4562", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.49", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — ALVECHURCH vs BROMSGROVE: Over 1.5 @ 1.58\nOUTLOOK — ALVECHURCH 1.19 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | BROMSGROVE 1.29 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 2.48 expected (about 2 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (SOURCE_DIRECTION_CONFLICT).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 2 total goals (2.48 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou15_recent_value_cohort", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8609", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.088", "dom_live_index": "0.088", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.03", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.0", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.0", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.0", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.5056", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.621", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.615", "h2h_confidence": "0.886", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "8", "selection_regime_fit": "0.4722", "selection_regime_ok": "0", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_miss:min_prob<0.68,min_conf<0.42,min_tempo<0.45", "selection_value_boost": "0.3728", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.0114", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.0816", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.1326", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.166", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.2986", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.1326", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.166", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.2986", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.1911", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.2902", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.4813", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0585", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1242", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1827", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.677806", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.312888", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.688389", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.325051", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.668823", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.40359", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.200368", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.009/0.995);h2h_total_adj=1.067", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.07;history_piecewise_offset=+0.086", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 1, 0, 3]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 0, 2, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 2, 0, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 1, 0, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 0, 2, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 2, 0, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 1, 1, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 3, 0, 1, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 0, 3, 8, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 0, 0, 0]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.98", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.25", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "goal_floor_score": "0.675", "goal_floor_status": "CAUTION", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_45|RECENT_HISTORY_SOURCE_CONFLICT", "second_goal_security": "0.432", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.2", "btts_1plus_route": "0.6", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.93", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.65", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "1.0", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.81", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.848", "recent_history_source_conflict": "1", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.687", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.5", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.625", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.5", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.687", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.521", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.73", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.321", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.376", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.1", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "ALVECHURCH", "away_team": "BROMSGROVE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.103", "away_attack_ratio": "1.429", "home_defense_ratio": "1.867", "away_defense_ratio": "2.471", "home_form_ratio": "0.853", "away_form_ratio": "0.6", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.6", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.163", "home_momentum": "2.0", "away_momentum": "1.8", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.6212814014267973", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "5.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.8", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.6321205588285577", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "8.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.5", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.625", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.7364028618842733", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "0.9", "h2h_btts_agreement": "0.975", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "0.9375", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "9.641", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "8", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.088", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.076", "xg_away_expected": "1.173", "xg_total_expected": "2.249", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.125", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.098", "market_home_win_prob": "0.319", "market_draw_prob": "0.308", "market_away_win_prob": "0.372", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.304", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.804", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "0.75", "away_goals_scored_avg": "2.0", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "0.688", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.2", "away_form_avg_conceded": "0.8", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.7", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.4", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.6", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_ga_avg": "0.8", "home_scoring_std": "0.49", "away_scoring_std": "0.98", "home_conceding_std": "0.98", "away_conceding_std": "0.748", "match_goal_volatility": "0.799", "home_score_consistency": "0.72", "away_score_consistency": "0.44", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.8", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.2", "home_over35_rate": "0.2", "away_over35_rate": "0.0", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.8", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.2", "home_attack_trend": "-0.275", "away_attack_trend": "-0.8", "home_defense_trend": "0.45", "away_defense_trend": "0.112", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.45", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.112", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.326", "defense_ratio_gap": "-0.604", "form_attack_gap": "0.253", "form_defense_gap": "-0.437", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.094", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.32", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.308", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.372", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.323", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.019", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.493", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-4 | 1-2 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1-0", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-02-17 | 2025-08-12 | 2025-03-11 | 2024-11-30 | 2024-04-06", 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"0", "highest_stake": "0", "value_classification": "POSITIVE_VALUE", "effective_model_ev": "0.06255", "terminal_policy_failure": "", "v35_calibrated_direct_ou25": "", "high_goal_ceiling_score": "0.4955", "high_goal_ceiling_flag": "0", "promotion_evaluated": "1", "promotion_eligible": "0", "promotion_score": "0.581732", "promotion_rank": "0", "promotion_reject_reason": "not_eligible_for_promotion", "line_selected": "0", "line_not_selected_reason": "not_finally_selected", "ou25_line_upgrade_ready": "0", "aug06_market_rule": "aug06_block_ou15_profile", "aug06_market_pass": "0", "aug06_stage": "after_all_promotions", "ou15_recent_value_signal": "1", "ou15_recent_value_reason": "ODDS_1.50_1.67_AND_AWAY_RECENT_GOALS_LE_1.20", "minutes_to_kickoff": "1002.04", "live_publication_eligible": "1", "live_publication_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "football_qualification_pass": "1", "football_qualification_status": "QUALIFIED", "football_qualification_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_pass": 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"current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "fallback_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 1.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 1.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 1.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "13.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.4615", "league_history_roi": "-0.3562", "league_history_guard": "watch", "league_history_label": "BELOW_50_WARNING", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "0.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "0.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU15_RECENT_VALUE_COHORT", "v657_recovery_provisional": "0.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4514,btts_xg=0.6072,odds=1.58)", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4514,btts_xg=0.6072,odds=1.58)", "ticket_use": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class": "WATCH", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Track only", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "1271", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.739575", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.7147509422086814", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.095177", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.3226155555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3670886075949368", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.4266820078059072", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.12", "away_blank_risk": "0.34", "max_blank_risk": "0.34", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.9232", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.2912", "p_total_le2": "0.5486", "p_exactly2": "0.2575", "winner_quality_score": "0.5652", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5232", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.5614", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.633", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.42", "winner_consistency_score": "0.5232", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7448", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.508", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.724041", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.409598", "winning_chance_score": "0.646147", "value_opportunity_score": "0.53028", "winning_chance_rank": "17", "value_opportunity_rank": "40", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4514,btts_xg=0.6072,odds=1.58)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=SECONDARY; final_quality=WATCH; value=GOOD VALUE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.672; conf=0.672; quant=0.476; winner_quality=0.523; reliability=0.724; variance=0.506; hist_net=0.726; hist_risk=0.180; support=0.730; warnings=1/0/0; lose_risk=3; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4514,btts_xg=0.6072,odds=1.58); v61_quality_cap=V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.422411", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.372011", "publication_rank_score": "0.408299", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "31", "publication_value_rank": "31", "league_market_history_bets": "5", "league_market_history_wins": "4", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.8", "league_market_history_profit": "9.3", "league_market_history_roi": "0.186", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "WATCH", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.299801", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.422411", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.58. | TICKET — live use WATCH; quality WATCH; risk HIGH; reliability role WATCH; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 42%; profile similarity 30/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — ALVECHURCH 1.19 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.13), BROMSGROVE 1.29 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.17), match 2.48 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: ALVECHURCH 1+ 70% / 2+ 33%; BROMSGROVE 1+ 72% / 2+ 37%. Match: 2+ 71%, 3+ 45%, 4+ 24%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (13%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor CAUTION; second-goal security 43%; recent O1.5 support 80%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 42% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League,premier Division Central / OU OVER 1.5: 4-1 from 5 settled published CTM picks (80%, ROI +18.6%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 37%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — league is on CTM watch; recent-history sources conflict; weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / WATCH / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.4813", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.4813", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.2902", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1285258143448573", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.1911", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0348256283237415", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1227756319661979", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "235", "v65_alternative_scores": "0-1, 1-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3360479258296464", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.1911", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.2902", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "WATCH", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "06cf96905cca9d5f", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS vs RUSHDEN DIAMONDS", "league": "England NPL Division One North Midlands", "market": "BTTS", "selection": "Yes", "prediction_label": "BTTS Yes", "prediction_market": "BTTS", "prediction_selection": "YES", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "BOTH TEAMS", "prediction_probability": "0.6719", "prediction_odds": "1.64", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6098", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.49", "prediction_edge_pct": "6.22", "prediction_ev": "0.102", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "btts_yes_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "2", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home lean", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.431447", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.431447", "draw_probability_raw": "0.235732", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.235732", "direction_gap": "0.098627", "outlook_direction_score": "0.125869", "draw_risk_score": "0.526627", "draw_resistance_score": "0.18836", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.501177", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.4314", "draw_prob": "0.2357", "away_win_prob": "0.3328", "home_odds": "1.95", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "3.0", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.439223", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.224048", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.336729", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.431447", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.235732", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.33282", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.431447", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.235732", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.33282", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.8332", "expected_away_goals": "1.5855", "expected_total_goals": "3.4187", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.8332", "away_goal_lambda": "1.5855", "match_goal_lambda": "3.4187", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0952", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1599", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2048", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.4187", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "3.019", "processor_raw_goal_total": "3.019", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.573219", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.536609", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.606,recent_scoring_conceding:0.506,form_momentum:0.618", "lambda_direction_resolution": "dampened_medium_gap:0.41", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.177", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8401", "home_prob_2plus": "0.547", "home_prob_3plus": "0.2783", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7952", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4704", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2129", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8553", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6639", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4457", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.4187", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8553", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6639", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4457", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.0376", "direction_abs_score": "0.0376", "direction_side": "NEUTRAL", "direction_confidence": "0.328", "direction_gap_quality": "NO_EDGE", "direction_market_edge": "0.6205", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8695", "direction_xg_edge": "0.1096", "direction_form_edge": "0.1679", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.4507", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.58897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.668", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7577", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.4175", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.8359", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.8", "btts_scoring_floor": "1.0", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.0", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.9526", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8649", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.8332", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.5855", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.4187", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "Supported by xG: both teams carry scoring threat (home 1.83, away 1.59, total 3.42).", "xg_support_score": "1.0", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.2477", "losing_pick_risk_score": "2", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "soft_recent_direction|extreme_tempo_volatility", "probability_raw": "0.668", "probability": "0.6719", "confidence_model": "0.5487", "performance_confidence": "0.6719", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6455", "confidence_gate": "0.6719", "model_conf_raw": "0.5487", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6719", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6719", "confidence": "0.6719", "market_performance_confidence": "0.940764", "market_performance_score": "94.08", "market_performance_score_base": "94.08", "market_confidence_band": "ELITE", "market_confidence_method": "BTTS_HISTORY_DUAL_ROUTE_BLANK_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.75", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "1.0", "confidence_route_component": "0.857143", "confidence_environment_component": "1.0", "confidence_safety_component": "1.0", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.672424", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 100%; route 86%; environment 100%; safety 100%; probability 67%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "1.64", "odds_expected_col": "btts_yes_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6098", "edge_p": "0.0622", "edge_pct": "6.22", "ev": "0.102", "quant_shape_score": "0.707812", "quant_ev": "0.101996", "quant_score": "0.649583", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.816", "historical_risk_score": "0.189", "historical_net_score": "0.731", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.679", "best_goal_market_support": "0.925", "market_history_support": "0.849", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.998", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.9", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.5", "combined_btts_rate": "0.8", "ou15_history_support": "0.925", "ou25_history_support": "0.821", "ou35_history_support": "0.45", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.849", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.803", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.805", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.669", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.596", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.5375", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.49", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS vs RUSHDEN DIAMONDS: BTTS Yes @ 1.64\nOUTLOOK — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 1.83 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 1.59 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 3.42 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS is expected to score about 2 goals (1.83 average; 1-3 plausible). RUSHDEN DIAMONDS is expected to score about 2 goals (1.59 average; 1-2 plausible). This pick needs both teams to score.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 2-1, 1-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM BTTS Yes picks: 88/134 won (66%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: one of the teams fails to score.\nVERDICT — BET — BTTS Yes is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_btts_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.753", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.448", "dom_live_index": "0.448", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.384", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.916", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "1.0", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.938", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.4697", "h2h_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_confidence": "0.632", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "5", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.72", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.622", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.2076", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.6778", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.4489", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.1267", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.6778", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.4489", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.1267", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.8332", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.5855", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.4187", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1554", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1366", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.292", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.813216", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.499829", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.765172", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.424929", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.818993", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.604589", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.381129", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.045/0.973);h2h_total_adj=1.015", "lambda_correction_reason": "dampened_medium_gap:0.41;history_piecewise_offset=+0.177", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 3, 2, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 4, 0, 3, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 3, 2, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 4, 0, 3, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.632", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.3", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.286", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.3", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.811", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.696", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.6", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.8", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.9", "ou15_xg_market_support": "1.0", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.925", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.871", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.821", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.5", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS", "away_team": "RUSHDEN DIAMONDS", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.066", "away_attack_ratio": "1.651", "home_defense_ratio": "1.018", "away_defense_ratio": "1.431", "home_form_ratio": "1.104", "away_form_ratio": "0.606", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.6", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.178", "home_momentum": "0.8", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "3.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "5.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.6321205588285577", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "5.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "5", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.448", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.556", "xg_away_expected": "1.463", "xg_total_expected": "3.019", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.071", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.093", "market_home_win_prob": "0.456", "market_draw_prob": "0.247", "market_away_win_prob": "0.297", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.535", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.714", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.812", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "away_goals_scored_avg": "2.312", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.188", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.0", "home_form_avg_conceded": "2.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.4", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.4", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.7", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.4", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_ga_avg": "2.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.4", 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"current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "QUALIFIED_ALTERNATIVE", "league_history_bets": "0.0", "league_history_win_rate": "", "league_history_roi": "", "league_history_guard": "unknown", "league_history_label": "NO_HISTORY", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "0.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "BTTS_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_blocked_support_only", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Separate secondary ticket only; one selection per fixture; never a main/highest-stake anchor.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "SELECTIVE_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "540", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.631481", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5899972925298113", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.072037", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.2711933333333333", "synthetic_value_index": "0.3902439024390244", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5799940353658537", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "2.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_ALTERNATIVE", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.684543", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.870662", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.06", "away_blank_risk": "0.06", "max_blank_risk": "0.06", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8649", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.8", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.0", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.4", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.1447", "p_total_le2": "0.3361", "p_exactly2": "0.1914", "winner_quality_score": "0.734", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.7714", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.932", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.9835", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.6515", "winner_consistency_score": "0.6057", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7888", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4342", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.726053", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "extreme_tempo_volatility|soft_recent_direction", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.652863", "winning_chance_score": "0.639473", "value_opportunity_score": "0.577916", "winning_chance_rank": "21", "value_opportunity_rank": "29", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "BTTS_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "85", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.6823529412", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "0", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "27", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.7037037037", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:BTTS_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=85|ref_wr=0.6824|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.717588", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.473832", "publication_rank_score": "0.649336", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "2", "rank_number": "2", "rank_display": "#2", "publication_rank": "5", "publication_value_rank": "20", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.940764", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "BTTS_NO_MATURE_HIGH_WIN_REFERENCE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "high_win_profile_reason": "BTTS remains a qualified/value market, but the supplied history does not justify a mature high-win label yet.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.717588", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.64. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 72%; profile similarity 94/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 1.83 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.68), RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 1.59 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.45), match 3.42 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 1+ 84% / 2+ 55%; RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 1+ 80% / 2+ 47%. Match: 2+ 86%, 3+ 66%, 4+ 45%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL ROUTES — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 1+ 84% and RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 1+ 80%; BTTS requires both scoring routes rather than one dominant supplier. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; direct BTTS support 80%; both sides must retain independent 1+ routes. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD. BTTS remains a qualified/value market, but the supplied history does not justify a mature high-win label yet. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 72% (STRONG). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — no settled CTM league-market record is available yet for England NPL Division One North Midlands. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 47%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Supported Alternative; settled synthetic-price curve n=540, win rate 63%, synthetic ROI 7%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).\nMARKET VALIDATION: RETROSPECTIVE_TWO_SIDED_VALUE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_VALIDATED; ticket-executable=1; secondary-value-eligible=1. Model confidence is an estimate, not a prospectively verified win rate. Verify actual bookmaker odds; synthetic ROI is not proven bookmaker profit.", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.4187", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.4187", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.5855", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0952036391689433", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.8332", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.1416577478015879", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0213723469649107", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "197", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2579399797823766", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.8332", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.5855", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "ELITE", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "c6eb296402784d80", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 13:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 15:00:00", "match": "COVENTRY CITY vs SWANSEA CITY RESERVES", "league": "Professional Development League", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6716", "prediction_odds": "1.75", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5714", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.49", "prediction_edge_pct": "10.02", "prediction_ev": "0.1753", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.386071", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.386071", "draw_probability_raw": "0.235362", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.235362", "direction_gap": "0.007505", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.005486", "draw_risk_score": "0.676519", "draw_resistance_score": "0.0", "source_agreement_count": "1", "source_evidence_count": "2", "source_agreement_score": "0.5", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.595353", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "high_draw_risk|weak_draw_resistance|weak_source_agreement|small_1x2_probability_gap|high_uncertainty", "home_win_prob": "0.3786", "draw_prob": "0.2354", "away_win_prob": "0.3861", "home_odds": "2.55", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "2.3", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.383074", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.224428", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.392498", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.378567", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.235362", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.386071", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.378567", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.235362", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.386071", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.7157", "expected_away_goals": "1.7385", "expected_total_goals": "3.4542", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.7157", "away_goal_lambda": "1.7385", "match_goal_lambda": "3.4542", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0943", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1798", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1758", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.4542", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "3.007", "processor_raw_goal_total": "3.007", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.472651", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.497236", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.474,recent_scoring_conceding:0.556,form_momentum:0.714", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.16", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.157", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8202", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5116", "home_prob_3plus": "0.2469", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8242", "away_prob_2plus": "0.5186", "away_prob_3plus": "0.253", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8592", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6706", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4535", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.4542", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8592", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6706", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4535", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.3044", "direction_abs_score": "0.3044", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.8498", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.1736", "direction_team_edge": "-0.9046", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.3026", "direction_form_edge": "0.7046", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.6651", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.676", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7583", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.42", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.65", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.9974", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.9869", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.7157", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.7385", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.4542", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.0228", "losing_pick_risk_score": "11", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_control|away_hard_blank_warning|away_weak_two_goal_floor|low_scoring_consistency|extreme_tempo_volatility|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6706", "probability": "0.6716", "confidence_model": "0.5707", "performance_confidence": "0.6716", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6729", "confidence_gate": "0.6716", "model_conf_raw": "0.5707", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6716", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6716", "confidence": "0.6716", "market_performance_confidence": "0.363303", "market_performance_score": "36.33", "market_performance_score_base": "41.33", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.454286", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.582107", "confidence_safety_component": "0.55419", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.671515", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-5.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 45%; route 13%; environment 58%; safety 55%; probability 67%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "1.75", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5714", "edge_p": "0.1002", "edge_pct": "10.02", "ev": "0.1753", "quant_shape_score": "0.67541", "quant_ev": "0.175298", "quant_score": "0.575329", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.825", "historical_risk_score": "0.306", "historical_net_score": "0.687", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.267", "best_goal_market_support": "0.85", "market_history_support": "0.609", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.998", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.5", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.85", "ou25_history_support": "0.609", "ou35_history_support": "0.376", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.722", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.751", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.714", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.475", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.412", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.4625", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.49", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — COVENTRY CITY vs SWANSEA CITY RESERVES: Over 2.5 @ 1.75\nOUTLOOK — COVENTRY CITY 1.72 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | SWANSEA CITY RESERVES 1.74 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.45 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — COVENTRY CITY is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.45 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.857", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.113", "dom_live_index": "0.113", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.143", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.967", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.936", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.967", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.6051", "h2h_goals_avg": "3.277", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.713", "h2h_confidence": "0.691", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "4", "selection_regime_fit": "0.7083", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.5304", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.369", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.5274", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.578", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.5955", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.1735", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.578", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.5955", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.1735", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.7157", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.7385", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.4542", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1377", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.143", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2807", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.793613", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.467933", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.797193", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.473614", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.82531", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.614538", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.391576", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.011/0.993);h2h_total_adj=1.039", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.16;history_piecewise_offset=+0.157", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[4, 2, 2, 1, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 1, 7, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 4, 0, 1]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 6, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[4, 2, 2, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 1, 7, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 4, 0, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 6, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 4, 0, 3, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 2, 2, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 0, 2, 2, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 0, 2, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.095", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.47", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.667", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.667", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "goal_floor_score": "0.653", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SCORING_SPIKY_GE_65|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.55", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.2", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.83", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.69", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.73", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.8", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.762", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.0", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.0", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.0", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.0", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.0", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "1.0", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.85", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.5", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.862", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.609", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "COVENTRY CITY", "away_team": "SWANSEA CITY RESERVES", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.854", "away_attack_ratio": "1.295", "home_defense_ratio": "0.724", "away_defense_ratio": "1.406", "home_form_ratio": "1.333", "away_form_ratio": "0.64", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.1", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.6", "home_momentum": "2.0", "away_momentum": "1.4", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "6", "away_rest_days": "14", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "3.27731099179692", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.6666666666666666", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.4511883639059735", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "4.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "3.5", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.75", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.486582880967408", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "0.8333333333333334", "h2h_btts_agreement": "0.9166666666666666", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "0.875", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "4.919", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "4", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.113", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.372", "xg_away_expected": "1.635", "xg_total_expected": "3.007", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.066", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.263", "market_home_win_prob": "0.355", "market_draw_prob": "0.251", "market_away_win_prob": "0.394", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.535", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.785", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "Both ordered team IDs verified; displayed-name alias differs", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.5", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "2.0", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.25", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.0", "home_form_avg_conceded": "2.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.2", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.0", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.757", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.448", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_ga_avg": "2.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.0", "home_scoring_std": "1.095", "away_scoring_std": "1.47", "home_conceding_std": "2.482", "away_conceding_std": "2.098", "match_goal_volatility": "1.786", "home_score_consistency": "0.374", "away_score_consistency": "0.16", "home_over15_rate": "1.0", "away_over15_rate": "0.6", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.4", "home_over35_rate": "0.4", "away_over35_rate": "0.4", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.8", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "home_attack_trend": "0.5", "away_attack_trend": "-0.675", 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"ticket_primary_eligible": "0", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "7.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.8571", "league_history_roi": "0.2129", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "SMALL_SAMPLE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_blocked_support_only", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "317", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.684543", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.6314365298515903", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.161262", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.4694711111111111", "synthetic_value_index": "0.4285714285714286", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.4841220976190476", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.06", "away_blank_risk": "0.34", "max_blank_risk": "0.34", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.9869", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.0", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.1408", "p_total_le2": "0.3294", "p_exactly2": "0.1886", "winner_quality_score": "0.5711", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6187", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.756", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.633", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.411", "winner_consistency_score": "0.227", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8357", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.572", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.72048", "soft_warning_count": "5", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "away_hard_blank_warning|away_weak_two_goal_floor|extreme_tempo_volatility|low_scoring_consistency|weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.467805", "winning_chance_score": "0.435598", "value_opportunity_score": "0.57555", "winning_chance_rank": "43", "value_opportunity_rank": "32", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.481924", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.425222", "publication_rank_score": "0.466047", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "27", "publication_value_rank": "25", "league_market_history_bets": "3", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "20.7", "league_market_history_roi": "0.69", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.363303", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.481359", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.75. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 48%; profile similarity 36/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — COVENTRY CITY 1.72 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.58), SWANSEA CITY RESERVES 1.74 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.60), match 3.45 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: COVENTRY CITY 1+ 82% / 2+ 51%; SWANSEA CITY RESERVES 1+ 82% / 2+ 52%. Match: 2+ 86%, 3+ 67%, 4+ 45%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (9%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — COVENTRY CITY leans HOME, but direction is NOT CONFIRMED (LEAN); COVENTRY CITY 2+ 51% vs SWANSEA CITY RESERVES 2+ 52%; gap 1pp. Do not infer a TG1.5 selection from this O2.5 total. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 55%; recent O2.5 support 50%; third-goal route 40% (PASS_EVIDENCE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 48% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Professional Development League / OU OVER 2.5: 3-0 from 3 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +69.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 42%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — elevated match variance (61%); weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=317, win rate 68%, synthetic ROI 16%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED|OU25_DIRECT_THREE_GOAL_HISTORY_WEAK); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.4542", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.4542", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.7385", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0942922604014331", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.7157", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.092431162507608", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0068676897661073", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "193", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 2-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2571444233407483", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.7157", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.7385", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "f2f29cd2da3c698e", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "THREE BRIDGES vs EASTBOURNE", "league": "Isthmian League, Pr. Div", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6694", "prediction_odds": "1.97", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5076", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.49", "prediction_edge_pct": "16.18", "prediction_ev": "0.3188", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "2", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.585226", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.585226", "draw_probability_raw": "0.211076", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.211076", "direction_gap": "0.37415", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.312855", "draw_risk_score": "0.258564", "draw_resistance_score": "0.691771", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.298608", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.2037", "draw_prob": "0.2111", "away_win_prob": "0.5852", "home_odds": "3.8", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "1.75", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.195242", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.19915", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.605607", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.203699", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.211076", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.585226", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.203699", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.211076", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.585226", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.1798", "expected_away_goals": "2.2023", "expected_total_goals": "3.3821", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "2", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.1798", "away_goal_lambda": "2.2023", "match_goal_lambda": "3.3821", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-2", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-2", "expected_score_probability": "0.0972", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-2 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 0-2 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.3073", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1106", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.3821", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "3.006", "processor_raw_goal_total": "3.006", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.355077", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.355077", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.316,recent_scoring_conceding:0.583,form_momentum:0.668", "lambda_direction_resolution": "away_direction_trusted:gap=0.84", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.162", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.6927", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3301", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1162", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8894", "away_prob_2plus": "0.646", "away_prob_3plus": "0.3779", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8511", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6568", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4377", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.3821", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8511", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6568", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4377", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.3827", "direction_abs_score": "0.3827", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9251", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.851", "direction_team_edge": "-0.3079", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.5708", "direction_form_edge": "0.6378", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.3219", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80086", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6161", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7518", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3935", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.8392", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.9", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "1.0", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.0", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7429", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.5357", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.1798", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "2.2023", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.3821", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-1.0224", "losing_pick_risk_score": "3", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "soft_recent_direction|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6568", "probability": "0.6694", "confidence_model": "0.6594", "performance_confidence": "0.6694", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.735", "confidence_gate": "0.6694", "model_conf_raw": "0.6594", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6694", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6694", "confidence": "0.6694", "market_performance_confidence": "0.766509", "market_performance_score": "76.65", "market_performance_score_base": "78.08", "market_confidence_band": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "0.851429", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.83778", "confidence_safety_component": "0.918333", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.664848", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "-6.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_total_modifier": "-1.43", "confidence_component_summary": "history 85%; route 62%; environment 84%; safety 92%; probability 66%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "1.97", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5076", "edge_p": "0.1618", "edge_pct": "16.18", "ev": "0.3188", "quant_shape_score": "0.693227", "quant_ev": "0.318815", "quant_score": "0.770784", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.845", "historical_risk_score": "0.192", "historical_net_score": "0.758", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.481", "best_goal_market_support": "1.0", "market_history_support": "0.748", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.995", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "1.0", "combined_over25_rate": "0.7", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.9", "ou15_history_support": "1.0", "ou25_history_support": "0.748", "ou35_history_support": "0.375", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.911", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.71", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.965", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.592", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.52", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3312", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.49", "recommended_stake": "10", "rationale": "PICK — THREE BRIDGES vs EASTBOURNE: Over 2.5 @ 1.97\nOUTLOOK — THREE BRIDGES 1.18 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | EASTBOURNE 2.20 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.38 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (SOURCE_DIRECTION_CONFLICT).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.38 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals. The evidence supports the third goal needed for Over 2.5.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 1-3, 0-3.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.862", "data_completeness_score": "0.8424", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.747", "dom_live_index": "0.747", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.712", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.815", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.792", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.78", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.2937", "h2h_goals_avg": "5.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.307", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.72", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.023", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.858", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.123", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "2.0397", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.1627", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.123", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "2.0397", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.1627", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.1798", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "2.2023", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.3821", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0568", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1626", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2194", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.674698", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.309383", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.869932", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.604633", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.823871", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.612257", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.389168", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.075/0.955)", "lambda_correction_reason": "away_direction_trusted:gap=0.84;history_piecewise_offset=+0.162", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 4, 0, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 2, 2, 1, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 1, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 3, 3]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 4, 0, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 2, 2, 1, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 1, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 3, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 3, 2, 4]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 3, 0, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 3, 2, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 4, 1, 3, 3]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.8", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.327", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.444", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.286", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.444", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.809", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "RECENT_HISTORY_SOURCE_CONFLICT", "second_goal_security": "0.751", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "1.0", "home_2plus_route": "0.6", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.894", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.72", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.84", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.73", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.96", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.812", "recent_history_source_conflict": "1", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.776", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.408", "home_ga_source_gap": "1.179", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.308", "max_team_history_source_gap": "1.179", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "1.0", "ou15_xg_market_support": "1.0", "ou15_combined_market_support": "1.0", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.861", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.748", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "THREE BRIDGES", "away_team": "EASTBOURNE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.99", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.146", "away_attack_ratio": "1.101", "home_defense_ratio": "0.757", "away_defense_ratio": "1.041", "home_form_ratio": "0.929", "away_form_ratio": "0.747", "home_defense_form_ratio": "0.622", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.354", "home_momentum": "2.0", "away_momentum": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "5.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "5.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.1812692469220181", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "1.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "5.0", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.1535182751093858", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "1.35", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "1", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.747", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.23", "xg_away_expected": "1.776", "xg_total_expected": "3.006", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.156", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.546", "market_home_win_prob": "0.237", "market_draw_prob": "0.25", "market_away_win_prob": "0.514", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.475", "api_reliability": "0.99", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.745", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.938", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "2.25", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.625", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.8", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.4", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.4", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.2", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.691", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.703", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.8", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.2", "home_scoring_std": "1.327", "away_scoring_std": "0.49", "home_conceding_std": "0.49", "away_conceding_std": "0.748", "match_goal_volatility": "0.764", "home_score_consistency": "0.242", "away_score_consistency": "0.72", "home_over15_rate": "1.0", "away_over15_rate": "1.0", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.8", "home_over35_rate": "0.2", "away_over35_rate": "0.6", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.8", "away_btts_rate_recent": "1.0", "home_attack_trend": "-0.138", "away_attack_trend": "-0.475", "home_defense_trend": "-0.85", "away_defense_trend": "0.575", "home_defense_improvement": "0.85", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.575", "attack_ratio_gap": "0.045", "defense_ratio_gap": "-0.284", "form_attack_gap": "0.182", "form_defense_gap": "0.732", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.281", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.237", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.25", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.513", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.482", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.007", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "LOW_SAMPLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "0", "h2h_support_score": "0.132", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.18", "h2h_direct_scores": "3-2", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-08-11", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"3-2\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-08-11\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"3-2\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "1.0", "h2h_over_25_rate": "1.0", "h2h_over_35_rate": "1.0", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", 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"CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "8.0", "league_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_history_roi": "0.675", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "SMALL_SAMPLE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Separate/secondary ticket only", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "PRIMARY_VALUE", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "464", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.637931", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5932335763262995", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.210194", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.5782088888888889", "synthetic_value_index": "0.4923857868020305", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.6314291846869713", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.637931", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.748753", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.14", "away_blank_risk": "0.0", "max_blank_risk": "0.14", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.5357", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.8", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.4", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.1489", "p_total_le2": "0.3432", "p_exactly2": "0.1943", "winner_quality_score": "0.6032", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6688", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.88", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.833", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.3077", "winner_consistency_score": "0.4442", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.736", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4289", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.734223", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "soft_recent_direction", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.732894", "winning_chance_score": "0.693308", "value_opportunity_score": "0.81666", "winning_chance_rank": "10", "value_opportunity_rank": "2", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.7429,sample=0.6310)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.665675", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.610508", "publication_rank_score": "0.650228", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "14", "publication_value_rank": "5", "league_market_history_bets": "4", "league_market_history_wins": "4", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "40.2", "league_market_history_roi": "1.005", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.766509", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample).", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.663012", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.97. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 66%; profile similarity 77/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — THREE BRIDGES 1.18 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.12), EASTBOURNE 2.20 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 2.04), match 3.38 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: THREE BRIDGES 1+ 69% / 2+ 33%; EASTBOURNE 1+ 89% / 2+ 65%. Match: 2+ 85%, 3+ 66%, 4+ 44%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-2 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AMBIGUOUS; THREE BRIDGES 2+ 33% vs EASTBOURNE 2+ 65%. The O2.5 total may still qualify through a balanced/one-sided third-goal route, but no TG1.5 side should be inferred from the total alone. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 75%; recent O2.5 support 70%; third-goal route 60% (STRONG). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample). | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 66% (MODERATE). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Isthmian League, Pr. Div / OU OVER 2.5: 4-0 from 4 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +100.5%); very small sample. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 61%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — recent-history sources conflict; goal supplier is ambiguous. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=464, win rate 64%, synthetic ROI 21%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.3821000000000003", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.3821000000000003", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "2.2023", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0972084428814477", "v65_central_score": "1-2", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.1798", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0371684825936752", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1260068828062716", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "47", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-1, 0-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2678814643143166", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.1798", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "2.2023", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "4cbb6ced4fe020ce", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "YATE TOWN vs SHOLING", "league": "Southern Football League, Premier Division South", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "Over 1.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6689", "prediction_odds": "1.45", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.6897", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.49", "prediction_edge_pct": "-2.07", "prediction_ev": "-0.0301", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.374824", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.374824", "draw_probability_raw": "0.287688", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.287688", "direction_gap": "0.037337", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.11813", "draw_risk_score": "0.645744", "draw_resistance_score": "0.010602", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.557379", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "high_draw_risk|weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.3375", "draw_prob": "0.2877", "away_win_prob": "0.3748", "home_odds": "2.8", "draw_odds": "3.1", "away_odds": "2.3", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.326807", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.274522", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.398671", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.337487", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.287688", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.374824", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.337487", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.287688", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.374824", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.1341", "expected_away_goals": "1.2829", "expected_total_goals": "2.417", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.1341", "away_goal_lambda": "1.2829", "match_goal_lambda": "2.417", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1298", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.3217", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2772", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.417", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.291", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.29", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.483811", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.48332", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.451,recent_scoring_conceding:0.489,form_momentum:0.478", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.07", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.080", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.6783", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3134", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1065", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7228", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3671", "away_prob_3plus": "0.139", "match_prob_2plus": "0.6952", "match_prob_3plus": "0.4347", "match_prob_4plus": "0.2248", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.417", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.6952", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.4347", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.2248", "ou25_probability_band": "weak", "ou25_p3_qualified": "0", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.3001", "direction_abs_score": "0.3001", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.8967", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.3065", "direction_team_edge": "-0.4645", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.0607", "direction_form_edge": "-0.1937", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.5197", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.83215", "btts_yes_prob": "0.4902", "btts_outlook": "BTTS not expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.5899", "fh_goal_lambda": "0.8913", "fh_goal_label": "slow_first_half_risk", "fh_goal_support": "-0.45", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.3893", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.4", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.5683", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8841", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.1341", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.2829", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.417", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.1487", "losing_pick_risk_score": "6", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_control|low_tempo|elevated_blank_risk|high_p_total_le1", "probability_raw": "0.6952", "probability": "0.6689", "confidence_model": "0.6006", "performance_confidence": "0.6689", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.2083", "confidence_gate": "0.6689", "model_conf_raw": "0.6006", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6689", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6689", "confidence": "0.6689", "market_performance_confidence": "0.161326", "market_performance_score": "16.13", "market_performance_score_base": "24.13", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU15_HISTORY_ROUTE_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.108571", "confidence_route_component": "0.214286", "confidence_environment_component": "0.203512", "confidence_safety_component": "0.406571", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.663333", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-5.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "5.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 11%; route 21%; environment 20%; safety 41%; probability 66%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "A", "odds": "1.45", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.6897", "edge_p": "-0.0207", "edge_pct": "-2.07", "ev": "-0.0301", "quant_shape_score": "0.526816", "quant_ev": "-0.03007", "quant_score": "0.427993", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.761", "historical_risk_score": "0.178", "historical_net_score": "0.681", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.531", "best_goal_market_support": "0.588", "market_history_support": "0.588", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.988", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.6", "combined_over25_rate": "0.3", "combined_over35_rate": "0.1", "combined_btts_rate": "0.4", "ou15_history_support": "0.588", "ou25_history_support": "0.315", "ou35_history_support": "0.072", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.481", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.47", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.58", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.267", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.3", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3937", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.49", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — YATE TOWN vs SHOLING: Over 1.5 @ 1.45\nOUTLOOK — YATE TOWN 1.13 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | SHOLING 1.28 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 2.42 expected (about 2 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — SHOLING is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 2 total goals (2.42 average). This pick needs at least 2 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 1.5 picks: 217/286 won (76%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: the match finishes with 0 or 1 total goal.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 1.5 is the primary approved pick.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v62_recovered_ou15_execution_band", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.865", "data_completeness_score": "0.8539", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.111", "dom_live_index": "0.111", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.04", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.162", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.174", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.167", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.4458", "h2h_goals_avg": "0.667", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.667", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "3", "selection_regime_fit": "0.4722", "selection_regime_ok": "0", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_miss:min_prob<0.68,min_conf<0.42,min_tempo<0.45", "selection_value_boost": "0.2724", "raw_expected_home_goals": "0.9887", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.0549", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.0842", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.159", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.2432", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.0842", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.159", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.2432", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.1341", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.2829", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.417", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0499", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1239", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1738", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.661828", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.295181", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.6862", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.322506", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.655837", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.388846", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.189208", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.011/0.993);h2h_total_adj=0.947", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.07;history_piecewise_offset=+0.080", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 2, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 2, 0]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 2, 0, 1]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 0, 1, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 2, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 2, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 2, 0, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 0, 1, 1, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 3, 3, 1, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 0, 4, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 3, 1, 4]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 2, 2, 0]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "0.8", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.894", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.748", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "goal_floor_score": "0.557", "goal_floor_status": "CAUTION", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_45", "second_goal_security": "0.432", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.2", "btts_1plus_route": "0.6", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.6", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.84", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.63", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.81", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.86", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.785", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.229", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.437", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.058", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.0", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.437", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.55", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.588", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.3", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.35", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.315", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.1", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "YATE TOWN", "away_team": "SHOLING", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.997", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.795", "away_attack_ratio": "0.833", "home_defense_ratio": "1.268", "away_defense_ratio": "1.607", "home_form_ratio": "0.695", "away_form_ratio": "0.673", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.067", "away_defense_form_ratio": "0.711", "home_momentum": "1.0", "away_momentum": "1.4", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "home_rest_days": "7", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "0.6666666666666667", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "0.6666666666666666", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.4511883639059735", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "3.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "0.6666666666666666", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.3934693402873666", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "4.05", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "3", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.111", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.126", "xg_away_expected": "1.165", "xg_total_expected": "2.29", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.041", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.039", "market_home_win_prob": "0.32", "market_draw_prob": "0.289", "market_away_win_prob": "0.39", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.363", "api_reliability": "0.997", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.782", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.438", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.125", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.188", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.125", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.0", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "0.8", "away_form_avg_conceded": "0.8", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.808", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.426", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.0", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "0.8", "away_recent_ga_avg": "0.8", "home_scoring_std": "0.894", "away_scoring_std": "0.748", "home_conceding_std": "0.748", "away_conceding_std": "0.748", "match_goal_volatility": "0.785", "home_score_consistency": "0.489", "away_score_consistency": "0.572", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.4", "home_over25_rate": "0.2", "away_over25_rate": "0.4", "home_over35_rate": "0.2", "away_over35_rate": "0.0", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "home_attack_trend": "-0.438", "away_attack_trend": "-0.388", "home_defense_trend": "0.075", "away_defense_trend": "-0.325", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.075", "away_defense_improvement": "0.325", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.038", "defense_ratio_gap": "-0.34", "form_attack_gap": "0.022", "form_defense_gap": "-0.356", "historical_goal_balance": "0.125", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.32", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.29", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.39", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.377", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.014", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.0", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "0-0 | 2-0 | 0-0", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-09-26 | 2026-01-10 | 2025-08-09", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"0-0\", \"2-0\", \"0-0\"]", 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"synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.4", "away_blank_risk": "0.34", "max_blank_risk": "0.4", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.884", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.0", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "0.8", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.3048", "p_total_le2": "0.5653", "p_exactly2": "0.2605", "winner_quality_score": "0.5314", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.4961", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.4511", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.6", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.301", "winner_consistency_score": "0.4833", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8682", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4893", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.710745", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "1", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "elevated_blank_risk", "structural_warning_reasons": "high_p_total_le1", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.270762", "winning_chance_score": "0.427115", "value_opportunity_score": "0.305699", "winning_chance_rank": "46", "value_opportunity_rank": "51", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU15_HIGH_WIN_VALUE", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "22", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.9545454545", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "12", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "1.0", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "8", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.875", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4347,btts_xg=0.5683,odds=1.45)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "WATCH", "ticket_value_class": "RELIABILITY PRICE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=WATCH; final_quality=WATCH; value=RELIABILITY PRICE; market=OU; selection=OVER 1.5; prob=0.669; conf=0.669; quant=0.428; winner_quality=0.496; reliability=0.711; variance=0.446; hist_net=0.681; hist_risk=0.178; support=0.588; warnings=1/1/1; lose_risk=6; value_reason=goal_price_informational_only; main_eligible=0; main_reason=ou15_calibration_fail(p3=0.4347,btts_xg=0.5683,odds=1.45); v61_quality_cap=V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_PRIMARY", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.353845", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.330262", "publication_rank_score": "0.347242", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "32", "publication_value_rank": "34", "league_market_history_bets": "6", "league_market_history_wins": "6", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "27.5", "league_market_history_roi": "0.4583", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "RELIABILITY PRICE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.161326", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O1.5_PROFILE_COMBO_P70", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "59.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "69.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.855072463768116", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.353845", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 1.5 match goals @ 1.45. | TICKET — live use RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY; quality CORE; risk HIGH; reliability role CORE; value role RELIABILITY PRICE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 35%; profile similarity 16/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — YATE TOWN 1.13 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.08), SHOLING 1.28 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.16), match 2.42 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: YATE TOWN 1+ 68% / 2+ 31%; SHOLING 1+ 72% / 2+ 37%. Match: 2+ 70%, 3+ 43%, 4+ 22%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (13%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor CAUTION; second-goal security 43%; recent O1.5 support 60%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 59/69 wins (85.5%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O1.5 has a mature high-win reference, but this row does not satisfy every reference condition. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 35% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League, Premier Division South / OU OVER 1.5: 6-0 from 6 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +45.8%); very small sample. | VALUE — RELIABILITY PRICE; relative value score 33%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / RELIABILITY PRICE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=1271, win rate 74%, synthetic ROI 10%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 1.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PRIMARY_SELECTED (V64_BEST_EVIDENCE_FIXTURE_EXPRESSION); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "MEDIUM", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.417", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.417", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.2829", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1297640503564726", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.1341", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0754103293891909", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.125333002878158", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "212", "v65_alternative_scores": "0-1, 1-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.3453333385278614", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.1341", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.2829", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_PRIMARY_EXPRESSION", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_use_internal": "RECOVERED O1.5 RELIABILITY", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "92fb6986f12e4451", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 14:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 16:00:00", "match": "RIO AVE vs PORTIMONENSE", "league": "U23 Championship", "market": "HOME TG", "selection": "Over 1.5", "prediction_label": "RIO AVE Over 1.5 goals", "prediction_market": "HOME TG", "prediction_selection": "OVER 1.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "HOME GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6668", "prediction_odds": "1.96", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5102", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.5", "prediction_edge_pct": "15.66", "prediction_ev": "0.3069", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "home_tg_over_1_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "3", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.639646", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.639646", "draw_probability_raw": "0.205973", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.205973", "direction_gap": "0.433674", "outlook_direction_score": "0.470821", "draw_risk_score": "0.241433", "draw_resistance_score": "0.776255", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.211624", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.6396", "draw_prob": "0.206", "away_win_prob": "0.1544", "home_odds": "1.6", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "4.7", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.655867", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.190159", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.153974", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.639646", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.205973", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.154381", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.639646", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.205973", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.154381", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.233", "expected_away_goals": "0.9856", "expected_total_goals": "3.2186", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "0", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "0 goals most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.233", "away_goal_lambda": "0.9856", "match_goal_lambda": "3.2186", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "0 goals most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-0", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-0", "expected_score_probability": "0.0997", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1072", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.3732", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.2186", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.557", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.557", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.697632", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.697632", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.746,recent_scoring_conceding:0.493,form_momentum:0.416", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=1.02", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.184", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8928", "home_prob_2plus": "0.6534", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3861", "away_prob_1plus": "0.6268", "away_prob_2plus": "0.259", "away_prob_3plus": "0.0777", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8312", "match_prob_3plus": "0.624", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4016", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.2186", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8312", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.624", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4016", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.6481", "direction_abs_score": "0.6481", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.9254", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.9328", "direction_team_edge": "0.9033", "direction_xg_edge": "0.7645", "direction_form_edge": "-0.5413", "direction_defence_edge": "0.6586", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5596", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.721", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.2766", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6405", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.6785", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.4414", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.233", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "0.9856", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.2186", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "1.2473", "losing_pick_risk_score": "4", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "one_sided_high_xg|low_scoring_consistency|directional_team_goal_dependence", "probability_raw": "0.6534", "probability": "0.6668", "confidence_model": "0.6863", "performance_confidence": "0.6668", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6285", "confidence_gate": "0.6668", "model_conf_raw": "0.6863", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6668", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6668", "confidence": "0.6668", "market_performance_confidence": "0.468732", "market_performance_score": "46.87", "market_performance_score_base": "46.87", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "HOME_TG15_SIDE_HISTORY_ATTACK_CONCESSION", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.8", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.54", "confidence_route_component": "0.375", "confidence_environment_component": "0.885417", "confidence_safety_component": "0.885417", "confidence_opponent_component": "0.142857", "confidence_probability_component": "0.65697", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 54%; route 38%; environment 89%; safety 89%; probability 66%; opponent 14%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "1.96", "odds_expected_col": "home_tg_over_1_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5102", "edge_p": "0.1566", "edge_pct": "15.66", "ev": "0.3069", "quant_shape_score": "0.688838", "quant_ev": "0.306928", "quant_score": "0.711578", "prematch_data_score": "0.55", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.812", "historical_risk_score": "0.232", "historical_net_score": "0.707", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.417", "best_goal_market_support": "0.757", "market_history_support": "0.539", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.989", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.71", "ou25_history_support": "0.582", "ou35_history_support": "0.288", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.661", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.757", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.579", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.539", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.391", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.55", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|low_trust_league_cap", "fair_odds": "1.5", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — RIO AVE vs PORTIMONENSE: RIO AVE Over 1.5 goals @ 1.96\nOUTLOOK — RIO AVE 2.23 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | PORTIMONENSE 0.99 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.22 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — RIO AVE is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (elite directional confidence).\nWHY — RIO AVE is expected to score about 2 goals (2.23 average; 1-3 plausible). This pick needs RIO AVE to score at least 2 goals. That central expectation supports a 2+ team-goal pick.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-0, 2-1, 3-0.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM RIO AVE Over 1.5 goals picks: 9/17 won (53%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: RIO AVE scores 0 or 1 goal.\nVERDICT — BET — RIO AVE Over 1.5 goals is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_home_tg15_value_release|v57_goal_supplier_confirmed|v57_goal_supplier_confirmed|v57_goal_supplier_confirmed|v57_goal_supplier_confirmed", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8498", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.968", "dom_live_index": "0.968", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.931", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.502", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.592", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.491", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.25", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.6", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.95", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "10", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.72", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.8049", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.7823", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "2.0172", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "0.8743", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.8915", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "2.0172", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "0.8743", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.8915", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.233", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "0.9856", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.2186", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2158", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1113", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3271", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.866973", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.59863", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.582846", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.218128", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.784049", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.552068", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.328476", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.097/0.942);h2h_total_adj=1.002", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=1.02;history_piecewise_offset=+0.184", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 1, 2, 0]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 0, 3, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 1, 3, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 2, 2, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 0, 3, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 1, 3, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 2, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 0, 1, 0, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 1, 0, 2, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 0, 0, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 2, 0, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.02", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.02", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.375", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.429", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.429", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.706", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.632", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.8", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.8", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.83", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.48", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.93", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.85", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.773", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.124", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.313", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.062", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.0", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.313", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.741", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.71", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.541", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.582", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "RIO AVE", "away_team": "PORTIMONENSE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.279", "away_attack_ratio": "0.833", "home_defense_ratio": "1.426", "away_defense_ratio": "0.754", "home_form_ratio": "0.948", "away_form_ratio": "1.178", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.6", "away_defense_form_ratio": "0.686", "home_momentum": "1.4", "away_momentum": "1.8", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "7", "away_rest_days": "7", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.6", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "10.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.6", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.8646647167633873", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "10.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.6", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.8111243971624382", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "13.5", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "10", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.968", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.639", "xg_away_expected": "0.918", "xg_total_expected": "2.557", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.065", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.721", "market_home_win_prob": "0.56", "market_draw_prob": "0.249", "market_away_win_prob": "0.191", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.419", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.81", "league_data_tier": "LOW_TRUST", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.688", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.0", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.188", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.4", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.32", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.426", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.6", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "home_scoring_std": "1.02", "away_scoring_std": "1.02", "home_conceding_std": "1.02", "away_conceding_std": "0.748", "match_goal_volatility": "0.952", "home_score_consistency": "0.417", "away_score_consistency": "0.417", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.6", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.6", "home_over35_rate": "0.6", "away_over35_rate": "0.2", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "home_attack_trend": "-0.088", "away_attack_trend": "0.212", "home_defense_trend": "0.6", "away_defense_trend": "-0.55", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.6", "away_defense_improvement": "0.55", "attack_ratio_gap": "0.446", "defense_ratio_gap": "0.672", "form_attack_gap": "-0.231", "form_defense_gap": "-0.914", "historical_goal_balance": "0.625", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.559", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.251", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.19", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.43", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.011", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.471", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 6-0 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-1", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-04-21 | 2026-02-07 | 2025-04-01 | 2025-01-21 | 2024-04-02 | 2024-01-29 | 2023-03-29 | 2023-02-04 | 2022-03-08 | 2022-01-25", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"1-0\", \"1-3\", \"2-1\", \"0-2\", \"1-1\", \"1-1\", \"6-0\", \"0-0\", \"3-2\", \"0-1\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-04-21\", \"2026-02-07\", \"2025-04-01\", \"2025-01-21\", \"2024-04-02\", \"2024-01-29\", \"2023-03-29\", \"2023-02-04\", \"2022-03-08\", \"2022-01-25\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"1-0\", \"1-3\", \"2-1\", \"0-2\", \"1-1\", \"1-1\", \"6-0\", \"0-0\", \"3-2\", \"0-1\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "0.7", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.4", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.3", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "home_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.02", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.688", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.0", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "1.188", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.812", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.062", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "0.875", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.0", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.288", "best_second_goal_route": "0.8", "second_best_goal_route": "0.4", "third_second_goal_route": "0.4", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "10.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "AWAY_DERIVED_BOTTOM_QUARTILE", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "1.833333", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.666667", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.333333", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.333333", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.333333", "context_away_away_form_draws": "3.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "1.333333", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-09-22", "context_away_away_form_losses": "3.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.5", 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"SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "4.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.801897", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.737674", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.2", "away_blank_risk": "0.2", "max_blank_risk": "0.2", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.4414", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.4", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.1688", "p_total_le2": "0.376", "p_exactly2": "0.2072", "winner_quality_score": "0.6351", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6585", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.7923", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.8", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.516", "winner_consistency_score": "0.3616", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8612", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4748", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.721788", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "directional_team_goal_dependence|low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "one_sided_high_xg", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.505454", "winning_chance_score": "0.515848", "value_opportunity_score": "0.731", "winning_chance_rank": "35", "value_opportunity_rank": "8", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "HOME_TG15_SECONDARY_ONLY", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "0", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "0", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "0", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "home_tg15_settled_performance_not_main_high_win", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: tg15 secondary only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:TG15_SECONDARY_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.680088", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.467814", "publication_rank_score": "0.620651", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "11", "publication_value_rank": "21", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.468732", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "EMERGING", "high_win_profile_name": "HOME_TG1.5_SUPPLIER_CLEAN", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "9.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "13.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.6923076923076923", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "LIMITED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "Directional supplier contract is confirmed, but the settled reference sample is not yet large enough for a mature HIGH-WIN label.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.680088", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "EMERGING HISTORICAL PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Directional historical evidence is promising but still sample-limited.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — RIO AVE Over 1.5 team goals @ 1.96. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 68%; profile similarity 47/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — RIO AVE 2.23 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 2.02), PORTIMONENSE 0.99 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 0.87), match 3.22 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: RIO AVE 1+ 89% / 2+ 65%; PORTIMONENSE 1+ 63% / 2+ 26%. Match: 2+ 83%, 3+ 62%, 4+ 40%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-0 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — RIO AVE: CONFIRMED ELITE supplier; selected 2+ 65% vs PORTIMONENSE 2+ 26%; gap 39pp; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; selected 2+ route 40%; opponent concede-2 rate 40%; selected-side blank rate 20%. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — EMERGING; comparable structural reference 9/13 wins (69.2%), LIMITED SAMPLE. Directional supplier contract is confirmed, but the settled reference sample is not yet large enough for a mature HIGH-WIN label. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — EMERGING HISTORICAL PROFILE; current reliability 68% (MODERATE). Directional historical evidence is promising but still sample-limited. | LEAGUE + MARKET — exact HOME TG OVER 1.5 sample is not established; overall U23 Championship CTM record is 14 settled picks at 86% (ROI +53.2%). | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 47%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — EMERGING HISTORICAL PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Evidence-value score 59%, historical profile 47%, price-value index 49%. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=252, win rate 60%, synthetic ROI 14%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=SECONDARY_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE (SECONDARY_MARKET_CONTRACT_PASSED); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).\nMARKET VALIDATION: SMALL_REAL_FIXTURE_SIDE_SUPPLIER_SAMPLE; ticket-executable=1; secondary-value-eligible=1. Model confidence is an estimate, not a prospectively verified win rate. Verify actual bookmaker odds; synthetic ROI is not proven bookmaker profit.", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.2186000000000003", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.2186000000000003", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "0.9856", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0997532906440101", "v65_central_score": "2-0", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.233", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0905910414500074", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0334369187342148", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "103", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2874147739779908", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.233", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "0.9856", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS" }, { "match_id": "127231df6ec52474", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES vs CONSETT AFC", "league": "England NPL Division One East", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6651", "prediction_odds": "1.78", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5618", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.5", "prediction_edge_pct": "10.33", "prediction_ev": "0.1839", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home lean", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.447039", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.447039", "draw_probability_raw": "0.235419", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.235419", "direction_gap": "0.129496", "outlook_direction_score": "0.335715", "draw_risk_score": "0.455272", "draw_resistance_score": "0.490072", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.34641", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.447", "draw_prob": "0.2354", "away_win_prob": "0.3175", "home_odds": "1.85", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "3.2", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.455648", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.223461", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.320891", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.447039", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.235419", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.317543", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.447039", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.235419", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.317543", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.8633", "expected_away_goals": "1.5378", "expected_total_goals": "3.4011", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.8633", "away_goal_lambda": "1.5378", "match_goal_lambda": "3.4011", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0955", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1552", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2149", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.401", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.888", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.888", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.596582", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.548291", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.634,recent_scoring_conceding:0.561,form_momentum:0.550", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_gap_dampened:gap=0.54", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.186", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8448", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5557", "home_prob_3plus": "0.2864", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7851", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4547", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2007", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8533", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6605", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4419", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.4011", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8533", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6605", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4419", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.6581", "direction_abs_score": "0.6581", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.9537", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.7243", "direction_team_edge": "0.9661", "direction_xg_edge": "0.4261", "direction_form_edge": "0.2194", "direction_defence_edge": "0.7732", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.64897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6633", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7567", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.4134", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6181", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.9296", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8253", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.8633", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.5378", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.401", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.3255", "losing_pick_risk_score": "8", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "elevated_blank_risk|away_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency|extreme_tempo_volatility|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6605", "probability": "0.6651", "confidence_model": "0.5665", "performance_confidence": "0.6651", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.65", "confidence_gate": "0.6651", "model_conf_raw": "0.5665", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6651", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6651", "confidence": "0.6651", "market_performance_confidence": "0.493509", "market_performance_score": "49.35", "market_performance_score_base": "55.11", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.78", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.845696", "confidence_safety_component": "0.497524", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.651818", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "-0.76", "confidence_total_modifier": "-5.76", "confidence_component_summary": "history 78%; route 13%; environment 85%; safety 50%; probability 65%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "1.78", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5618", "edge_p": "0.1033", "edge_pct": "10.33", "ev": "0.1839", "quant_shape_score": "0.68828", "quant_ev": "0.183939", "quant_score": "0.635919", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.798", "historical_risk_score": "0.258", "historical_net_score": "0.682", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.279", "best_goal_market_support": "0.824", "market_history_support": "0.723", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.996", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.7", "combined_over35_rate": "0.6", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.769", "ou25_history_support": "0.723", "ou35_history_support": "0.494", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.688", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.824", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.537", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.536", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.398", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.5", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.5", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES vs CONSETT AFC: Over 2.5 @ 1.78\nOUTLOOK — PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES 1.86 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | CONSETT AFC 1.54 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 3.40 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.40 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 1-2, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.7505", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.532", "dom_live_index": "0.532", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.443", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.854", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.937", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.871", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3305", "h2h_goals_avg": "4.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.75", "h2h_confidence": "0.551", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "4", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.72", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6709", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.1299", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.7033", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.4032", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.1065", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.7033", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.4032", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.1065", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.8633", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.5378", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.4011", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.16", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1346", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2945", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.817918", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.507779", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.754191", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.409272", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.816204", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.600242", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.376614", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.053/0.968);h2h_total_adj=1.044", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_gap_dampened:gap=0.54;history_piecewise_offset=+0.186", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 4, 1, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 4, 0, 4]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 2, 1, 0, 0]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 2, 4, 3, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 4, 1, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 4, 0, 4]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 2, 1, 0, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 2, 4, 3, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.356", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.166", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.598", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40", "second_goal_security": "0.57", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.977", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.769", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.777", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.723", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES", "away_team": "CONSETT AFC", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.739", "away_attack_ratio": "0.79", "home_defense_ratio": "1.324", "away_defense_ratio": "0.75", "home_form_ratio": "0.853", "away_form_ratio": "0.834", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.309", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.53", "home_momentum": "1.4", "away_momentum": "0.8", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "4.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "4.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "4.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.75", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.5506710358827784", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "4.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "4", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.532", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.628", "xg_away_expected": "1.26", "xg_total_expected": "2.888", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.039", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.368", "market_home_win_prob": "0.478", "market_draw_prob": "0.246", "market_away_win_prob": "0.276", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.524", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.706", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.438", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.438", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.8", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.2", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.2", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.078", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.82", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.6", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.8", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.2", "home_scoring_std": "1.356", "away_scoring_std": "1.166", "home_conceding_std": "1.833", "away_conceding_std": "1.166", "match_goal_volatility": "1.38", "home_score_consistency": "0.225", "away_score_consistency": "0.334", "home_over15_rate": "0.6", "away_over15_rate": "0.8", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.8", "home_over35_rate": "0.6", "away_over35_rate": "0.6", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "home_attack_trend": "-0.275", "away_attack_trend": "-0.238", "home_defense_trend": "0.425", "away_defense_trend": "0.762", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.425", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.762", "attack_ratio_gap": "0.949", "defense_ratio_gap": "0.574", "form_attack_gap": "0.019", "form_defense_gap": "0.221", "historical_goal_balance": "0.25", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.476", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.247", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.277", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.526", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.002", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.325", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-4 | 2-0 | 4-3 | 1-1", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-03-28 | 2025-08-19 | 2024-12-06 | 2024-09-14", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"1-4\", \"2-0\", \"4-3\", \"1-1\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-03-28\", \"2025-08-19\", \"2024-12-06\", \"2024-09-14\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"1-4\", \"2-0\", \"4-3\", \"1-1\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "1.0", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.5", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.5", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "2.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.356", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "1.438", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.438", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.222", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.494", "best_second_goal_route": "0.693", "second_best_goal_route": "0.4", "third_second_goal_route": "0.4", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "4.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "NONE", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "3.333333", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.166667", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.833333", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.833333", "context_away_away_form_draws": "1.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "2.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "1.333333", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-10-17", "context_away_away_form_losses": "4.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "1.0", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.833333", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "0.666667", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"L\", \"D\", \"L\", \"W\", \"L\", \"L\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"1-2\", \"2-2\", \"1-2\", \"2-1\", \"0-2\", \"2-3\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "6.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_wins": "1.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "3.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "2.0", 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"ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "317", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.684543", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.6314365298515903", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.161262", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.4694711111111111", "synthetic_value_index": "0.4382022471910112", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.516207820411985", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.14", "away_blank_risk": "0.4", "max_blank_risk": "0.4", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8253", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.1467", "p_total_le2": "0.3395", "p_exactly2": "0.1928", "winner_quality_score": "0.5458", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5815", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.814", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.6", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.2472", "winner_consistency_score": "0.2375", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7877", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.5979", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.715991", "soft_warning_count": "3", "severe_warning_count": "1", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "away_hard_blank_warning|extreme_tempo_volatility|low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "elevated_blank_risk", "structural_warning_reasons": "v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.569523", "winning_chance_score": "0.406921", "value_opportunity_score": "0.572946", "winning_chance_rank": "48", "value_opportunity_rank": "33", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.657714", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.44864", "publication_rank_score": "0.599173", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "17", "publication_value_rank": "22", "league_market_history_bets": "2", "league_market_history_wins": "1", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.5", "league_market_history_profit": "-2.5", "league_market_history_roi": "-0.125", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.493509", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.652938", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.78. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 67%; reliability score 65%; profile similarity 49/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES 1.86 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.70), CONSETT AFC 1.54 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.40), match 3.40 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES 1+ 84% / 2+ 56%; CONSETT AFC 1+ 79% / 2+ 45%. Match: 2+ 85%, 3+ 66%, 4+ 44%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — HOME / PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES, STRONG; PONTEFRACT COLLIERIES 2+ 56% vs CONSETT AFC 2+ 45%; supplier gap 10pp; supplier reliability 63%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 57%; recent O2.5 support 70%; third-goal route 40% (PASS_EVIDENCE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 65% (MODERATE). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — England NPL Division One East / OU OVER 2.5: 1-1 from 2 settled published CTM picks (50%, ROI -12.5%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 45%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=317, win rate 68%, synthetic ROI 16%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.4011", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.4011", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.5378", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0955220596440285", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.8633", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.147385181776346", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0331009203865623", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "181", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2579620981716812", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.8633", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.5378", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "06cf96905cca9d5f", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS vs RUSHDEN DIAMONDS", "league": "England NPL Division One North Midlands", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6634", "prediction_odds": "1.75", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5714", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.51", "prediction_edge_pct": "9.2", "prediction_ev": "0.1609", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "2", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home lean", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.431447", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.431447", "draw_probability_raw": "0.235732", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.235732", "direction_gap": "0.098627", "outlook_direction_score": "0.125869", "draw_risk_score": "0.526627", "draw_resistance_score": "0.18836", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.501177", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.4314", "draw_prob": "0.2357", "away_win_prob": "0.3328", "home_odds": "1.95", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "3.0", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.439223", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.224048", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.336729", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.431447", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.235732", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.33282", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.431447", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.235732", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.33282", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.8332", "expected_away_goals": "1.5855", "expected_total_goals": "3.4187", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.8332", "away_goal_lambda": "1.5855", "match_goal_lambda": "3.4187", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0952", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1599", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2048", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.4187", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "3.019", "processor_raw_goal_total": "3.019", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.573219", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.536609", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.606,recent_scoring_conceding:0.506,form_momentum:0.618", "lambda_direction_resolution": "dampened_medium_gap:0.41", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.177", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8401", "home_prob_2plus": "0.547", "home_prob_3plus": "0.2783", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7952", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4704", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2129", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8553", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6639", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4457", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.4187", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8553", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6639", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4457", "ou25_probability_band": "very_strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.0376", "direction_abs_score": "0.0376", "direction_side": "NEUTRAL", "direction_confidence": "0.328", "direction_gap_quality": "NO_EDGE", "direction_market_edge": "0.6205", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8695", "direction_xg_edge": "0.1096", "direction_form_edge": "0.1679", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.4507", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.58897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.668", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7577", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.4175", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.8359", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.8", "btts_scoring_floor": "1.0", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.0", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.9526", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8649", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.8332", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.5855", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.4187", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.2477", "losing_pick_risk_score": "4", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "soft_recent_direction|extreme_tempo_volatility|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6639", "probability": "0.6634", "confidence_model": "0.5444", "performance_confidence": "0.6634", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6455", "confidence_gate": "0.6634", "model_conf_raw": "0.5444", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6634", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6634", "confidence": "0.6634", "market_performance_confidence": "0.866226", "market_performance_score": "86.62", "market_performance_score_base": "82.05", "market_confidence_band": "STRONG", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "1.0", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.924458", "confidence_safety_component": "0.797095", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.646667", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_total_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_component_summary": "history 100%; route 62%; environment 92%; safety 80%; probability 65%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "VALUE", "odds": "1.75", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5714", "edge_p": "0.092", "edge_pct": "9.2", "ev": "0.1609", "quant_shape_score": "0.679012", "quant_ev": "0.160915", "quant_score": "0.681141", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.816", "historical_risk_score": "0.189", "historical_net_score": "0.731", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.679", "best_goal_market_support": "0.925", "market_history_support": "0.821", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.998", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.9", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.5", "combined_btts_rate": "0.8", "ou15_history_support": "0.925", "ou25_history_support": "0.821", "ou35_history_support": "0.45", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.849", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.803", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.805", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.669", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.596", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.5375", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.51", "recommended_stake": "7", "rationale": "PICK — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS vs RUSHDEN DIAMONDS: Over 2.5 @ 1.75\nOUTLOOK — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 1.83 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 1.59 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 3.42 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.42 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals. The evidence supports the third goal needed for Over 2.5.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 1-2, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.753", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.448", "dom_live_index": "0.448", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.384", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.916", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "1.0", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.938", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.4697", "h2h_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_confidence": "0.632", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "5", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.72", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.622", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.2076", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.6778", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.4489", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.1267", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.6778", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.4489", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.1267", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.8332", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.5855", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.4187", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1554", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1366", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.292", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.813216", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.499829", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.765172", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.424929", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.818993", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.604589", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.381129", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.045/0.973);h2h_total_adj=1.015", "lambda_correction_reason": "dampened_medium_gap:0.41;history_piecewise_offset=+0.177", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 3, 2, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 4, 0, 3, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 3, 2, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 4, 0, 3, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 2, 1, 2, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.632", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.3", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.286", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.3", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.811", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.696", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.6", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.8", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.9", "ou15_xg_market_support": "1.0", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.925", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.871", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.821", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.5", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS", "away_team": "RUSHDEN DIAMONDS", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.066", "away_attack_ratio": "1.651", "home_defense_ratio": "1.018", "away_defense_ratio": "1.431", "home_form_ratio": "1.104", "away_form_ratio": "0.606", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.6", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.178", "home_momentum": "0.8", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "3.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "5.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.6321205588285577", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "5.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "5", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.448", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.556", "xg_away_expected": "1.463", "xg_total_expected": "3.019", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.071", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.093", "market_home_win_prob": "0.456", "market_draw_prob": "0.247", "market_away_win_prob": "0.297", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.535", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.714", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.812", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "away_goals_scored_avg": "2.312", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.188", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.0", "home_form_avg_conceded": "2.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.4", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.4", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.7", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.4", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_ga_avg": "2.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.4", "home_scoring_std": "0.632", "away_scoring_std": "0.49", "home_conceding_std": "1.327", "away_conceding_std": "0.8", "match_goal_volatility": "0.812", "home_score_consistency": "0.639", "away_score_consistency": "0.72", "home_over15_rate": "1.0", "away_over15_rate": "0.8", "home_over25_rate": "1.0", "away_over25_rate": "0.6", "home_over35_rate": "0.6", "away_over35_rate": "0.4", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.8", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.8", "home_attack_trend": "0.188", "away_attack_trend": "-0.912", "home_defense_trend": "0.825", "away_defense_trend": "0.212", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.825", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.212", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.586", "defense_ratio_gap": "-0.413", "form_attack_gap": "0.498", "form_defense_gap": "-0.422", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.343", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.457", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.247", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.295", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.535", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.001", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.296", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-3 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 3-1 | 3-2", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-03-14 | 2025-11-01 | 2025-03-01 | 2024-10-26 | 2024-01-30", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"1-3\", \"0-1\", \"0-1\", \"3-1\", \"3-2\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-03-14\", \"2025-11-01\", \"2025-03-01\", \"2024-10-26\", \"2024-01-30\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"1-3\", \"0-1\", \"0-1\", \"3-1\", \"3-2\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "0.6", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.6", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.6", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_max_blank_streak": "0.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "0.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "0.632", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.812", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "2.312", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.188", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.322", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.45", "best_second_goal_route": "0.8", "second_best_goal_route": "0.6", "third_second_goal_route": "0.4", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "5.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "NONE", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "4.8", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.8", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "context_away_away_form_draws": "2.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "1.8", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "3.0", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-10-10", "context_away_away_form_losses": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "1.0", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.8", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "2.2", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"W\", \"W\", \"W\", \"D\", \"D\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"5-3\", \"3-2\", \"3-0\", \"3-3\", \"1-1\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "5.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "context_away_away_form_wins": "3.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "2.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "1.0", "context_away_recent_events_json": "[{\"event_id\": \"17273395\", 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"winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7888", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4342", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.726053", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "extreme_tempo_volatility|soft_recent_direction", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.679474", "winning_chance_score": "0.626788", "value_opportunity_score": "0.64491", "winning_chance_rank": "23", "value_opportunity_rank": "21", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "2", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.767093", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.592316", "publication_rank_score": "0.718155", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "1", "publication_value_rank": "6", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.866226", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample).", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.767759", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.75. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 66%; reliability score 77%; profile similarity 87/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 1.83 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.68), RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 1.59 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.45), match 3.42 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 1+ 84% / 2+ 55%; RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 1+ 80% / 2+ 47%. Match: 2+ 86%, 3+ 66%, 4+ 45%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — HOME / BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS, STRONG; BOLDMERE ST MICHAELS 2+ 55% vs RUSHDEN DIAMONDS 2+ 47%; supplier gap 8pp; supplier reliability 62%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 70%; recent O2.5 support 80%; third-goal route 60% (STRONG). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample). | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 77% (STRONG). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — no settled CTM league-market record is available yet for England NPL Division One North Midlands. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 59%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=317, win rate 68%, synthetic ROI 16%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.4187", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.4187", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.5855", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0952036391689433", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.8332", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.1416577478015879", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0213723469649107", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "197", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-2", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2579399797823766", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.8332", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.5855", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "STRONG", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "db68563434011134", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "HARROGATE vs BURY", "league": "FA Cup", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.655", "prediction_odds": "1.82", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5495", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.53", "prediction_edge_pct": "10.56", "prediction_ev": "0.1921", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home lean", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.526268", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.526268", "draw_probability_raw": "0.228764", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.228764", "direction_gap": "0.2813", "outlook_direction_score": "0.118027", "draw_risk_score": "0.35341", "draw_resistance_score": "0.483603", "source_agreement_count": "2", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.5", "source_contradiction_count": "2", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.362744", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "source_contradiction|weak_draw_resistance|weak_source_agreement", "home_win_prob": "0.5263", "draw_prob": "0.2288", "away_win_prob": "0.245", "home_odds": "1.7", "draw_odds": "3.9", "away_odds": "4.2", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.538744", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.215244", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.246012", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.526268", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.228764", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.244968", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.526268", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.228764", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.244968", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.0161", "expected_away_goals": "1.3063", "expected_total_goals": "3.3224", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.0161", "away_goal_lambda": "1.3063", "match_goal_lambda": "3.3224", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0957", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1332", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2708", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.3225", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.802", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.801", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.608069", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.608069", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.712,recent_scoring_conceding:0.326,form_momentum:0.174", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.58", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.189", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8668", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5983", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3277", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7292", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3754", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1443", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8441", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6451", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4246", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.3224", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8441", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6451", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4246", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.0767", "direction_abs_score": "0.0767", "direction_side": "NEUTRAL", "direction_confidence": "0.3928", "direction_gap_quality": "NO_EDGE", "direction_market_edge": "0.8996", "direction_team_edge": "-0.9685", "direction_xg_edge": "0.3846", "direction_form_edge": "-0.7021", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.7085", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.58897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6321", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7463", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3714", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.5583", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.4", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.6", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8211", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.6479", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.0161", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.3063", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.3225", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.7098", "losing_pick_risk_score": "11", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|high_blank_risk|home_hard_blank_warning|home_weak_two_goal_floor|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6451", "probability": "0.655", "confidence_model": "0.5977", "performance_confidence": "0.655", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.704", "confidence_gate": "0.655", "model_conf_raw": "0.5977", "perf_conf_raw": "0.655", "gate_conf_raw": "0.655", "confidence": "0.655", "market_performance_confidence": "0.267951", "market_performance_score": "26.8", "market_performance_score_base": "51.8", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.725714", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.812905", "confidence_safety_component": "0.431571", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.621212", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-27.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-25.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 73%; route 13%; environment 81%; safety 43%; probability 62%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "1.82", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5495", "edge_p": "0.1056", "edge_pct": "10.56", "ev": "0.1921", "quant_shape_score": "0.710466", "quant_ev": "0.192125", "quant_score": "0.572726", "prematch_data_score": "0.63", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.788", "historical_risk_score": "0.234", "historical_net_score": "0.683", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.334", "best_goal_market_support": "0.829", "market_history_support": "0.704", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.997", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.7", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.829", "ou25_history_support": "0.704", "ou35_history_support": "0.331", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.694", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.664", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.742", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.37", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.618", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.6", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.775", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.0312", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "standings_missing|cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.53", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — HARROGATE vs BURY: Over 2.5 @ 1.82\nOUTLOOK — HARROGATE 2.02 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | BURY 1.31 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.32 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (LAMBDA_VS_INDEPENDENT_SOURCE_CONFLICT).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.32 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.734", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "1.0", "dom_live_index": "1.0", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "1.0", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.833", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.995", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.855", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.4079", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.181", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "0.875", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6388", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6452", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.0604", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.8331", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.1815", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.0146", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.8331", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.1815", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.0146", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.0161", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.3063", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.3224", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.183", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1248", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3079", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.840083", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.546939", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.693182", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.330676", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.803022", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.580073", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.356039", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.100/0.940)", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.58;history_piecewise_offset=+0.189", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 3, 0, 0]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 1, 0, 1, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[5, 2, 2, 2, 3]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 3, 0, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 1, 0, 1, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[5, 2, 2, 2, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 1, 1, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "0.8", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.8", "home_recent_goal_median": "0.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.166", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.166", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.75", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.357", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.75", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "goal_floor_score": "0.554", "goal_floor_status": "BLOCK", "goal_floor_hard_block": "1", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_60|SCORING_SPIKY_GE_65|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55|ONE_SIDED_GOAL_DEPENDENCY", "second_goal_security": "0.476", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.4", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.566", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.4", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.915", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.829", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.715", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.704", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "HARROGATE", "away_team": "BURY", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.897", "away_attack_ratio": "1.546", "home_defense_ratio": "1.029", "away_defense_ratio": "1.931", "home_form_ratio": "0.492", "away_form_ratio": "1.28", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.164", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.706", "home_momentum": "0.6", "away_momentum": "2.6", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.1812692469220181", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "1.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "1", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "1.0", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.56", "xg_away_expected": "1.242", "xg_total_expected": "2.801", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.022", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.318", "market_home_win_prob": "0.543", "market_draw_prob": "0.237", "market_away_win_prob": "0.22", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.513", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.669", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.625", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "away_goals_scored_avg": "2.188", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "0.938", "home_form_avg_scored": "0.8", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored": "2.8", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.6", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.811", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.415", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "0.8", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_gf_avg": "2.8", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.6", "home_scoring_std": "1.166", "away_scoring_std": "1.166", "home_conceding_std": "1.356", "away_conceding_std": "0.8", "match_goal_volatility": "1.122", "home_score_consistency": "0.334", "away_score_consistency": "0.334", "home_over15_rate": "0.6", "away_over15_rate": "1.0", "home_over25_rate": "0.4", "away_over25_rate": "1.0", "home_over35_rate": "0.2", "away_over35_rate": "0.6", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.2", "away_btts_rate_recent": "1.0", "home_attack_trend": "-0.825", "away_attack_trend": "0.612", "home_defense_trend": "0.225", "away_defense_trend": "0.662", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.225", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.662", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.649", "defense_ratio_gap": "-0.902", "form_attack_gap": "-0.787", "form_defense_gap": "0.542", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.5", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.543", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.237", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.22", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.516", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.003", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "LOW_SAMPLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "0", "h2h_support_score": "0.05", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.18", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-1", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-10-17", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"1-1\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-10-17\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"1-1\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "1.0", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.0", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.0", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_max_blank_streak": "2.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "0.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.166", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.625", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "2.188", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "0.938", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.155", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.331", "best_second_goal_route": "0.566", "second_best_goal_route": "0.4", "third_second_goal_route": "0.2", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "1.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "2.5", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.25", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.25", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_draws": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "1.25", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "1.25", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-10-10", "context_away_away_form_losses": "2.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "1.5", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"W\", \"L\", \"L\", \"W\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"3-2\", \"0-1\", \"1-2\", \"1-0\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "4.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.25", "context_away_away_form_wins": "2.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "3.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "1.0", "context_away_recent_events_json": "[{\"event_id\": \"17273412\", \"start_timestamp\": 1792236600, \"date\": \"2026-10-17\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Harrogate Town\", \"tournament\": \"FA Cup\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"19\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16586658\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791640800, \"date\": \"2026-10-10\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 3, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 5, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Alfreton Town FC\", \"tournament\": \"Northern Premier League, Premier Division\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"1111\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16586654\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791312300, \"date\": \"2026-10-06\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 1, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Stockton Town\", \"tournament\": \"Northern Premier League, Premier Division\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"1111\"}, {\"event_id\": \"17160372\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791036000, \"date\": \"2026-10-03\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 2, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": 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"high_blank_risk|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.512162", "winning_chance_score": "0.396898", "value_opportunity_score": "0.578362", "winning_chance_rank": "49", "value_opportunity_rank": "28", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS_V657_EVIDENCE_RECOVERY_TERMINAL_WARNINGS_SOFT", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "", "v652_missing_h2h": "", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "", "v655_terminal_policy": "", "v657_terminal_override_used": "1.0", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "Qualified V65.8 recovery or V69 side-specific Team Goals route; terminal hard vetoes remain enforced.", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.441801", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.431704", "publication_rank_score": "0.438974", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "30", "publication_value_rank": "24", "league_market_history_bets": "4", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.75", "league_market_history_profit": "15.9", "league_market_history_roi": "0.3975", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.267951", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.439487", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.82. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 66%; reliability score 44%; profile similarity 27/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — HARROGATE 2.02 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.83), BURY 1.31 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.18), match 3.32 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: HARROGATE 1+ 87% / 2+ 60%; BURY 1+ 73% / 2+ 38%. Match: 2+ 84%, 3+ 65%, 4+ 42%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AMBIGUOUS; HARROGATE 2+ 60% vs BURY 2+ 38%. The O2.5 total may still qualify through a balanced/one-sided third-goal route, but no TG1.5 side should be inferred from the total alone. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor BLOCK; second-goal security 48%; recent O2.5 support 70%; third-goal route 40% (NOT_SELECTED_LINE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 44% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — FA Cup / OU OVER 2.5: 3-1 from 4 settled published CTM picks (75%, ROI +39.8%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 43%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 60% recently; goal supplier is ambiguous. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=464, win rate 64%, synthetic ROI 21%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED|OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED|OU25_SECOND_GOAL_FLOOR_NOT_CLEAN); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.3224", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.3224", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.3063", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0957496254438598", "v65_central_score": "2-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.0161", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.1143045144719944", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1146769040798182", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "167", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-1, 2-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2640329646550697", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.0161", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.3063", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "04565cb4dc1874da", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "REAL BEDFORD vs BURY", "league": "Southern Football League,premier Division Central", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6461", "prediction_odds": "2.14", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4673", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.55", "prediction_edge_pct": "17.88", "prediction_ev": "0.3825", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.59402", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.59402", "draw_probability_raw": "0.216017", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.216017", "direction_gap": "0.378003", "outlook_direction_score": "0.372799", "draw_risk_score": "0.260758", "draw_resistance_score": "0.73908", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.247164", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.594", "draw_prob": "0.216", "away_win_prob": "0.19", "home_odds": "1.65", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "4.4", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.609328", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.201089", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.189583", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.59402", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.216017", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.189964", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.59402", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.216017", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.189964", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.161", "expected_away_goals": "1.1269", "expected_total_goals": "3.2879", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.161", "away_goal_lambda": "1.1269", "match_goal_lambda": "3.2879", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0982", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-1 (10%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1152", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.324", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.2879", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.701", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.701", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.659572", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.659572", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.727,recent_scoring_conceding:0.430,form_momentum:0.440", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.85", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.187", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8848", "home_prob_2plus": "0.6358", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3668", "away_prob_1plus": "0.676", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3108", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1051", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8399", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6381", "match_prob_4plus": "0.417", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.2879", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8399", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6381", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.417", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.2768", "direction_abs_score": "0.2768", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.7021", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.9137", "direction_team_edge": "0.0", "direction_xg_edge": "0.6124", "direction_form_edge": "-0.6181", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.339", "direction_agreement": "0.5", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.60794", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5981", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7372", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3362", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6538", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.7", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7391", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.5215", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.161", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.1269", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.2879", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "1.0341", "losing_pick_risk_score": "3", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6381", "probability": "0.6461", "confidence_model": "0.6184", "performance_confidence": "0.6461", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6582", "confidence_gate": "0.6461", "model_conf_raw": "0.6184", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6461", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6461", "confidence": "0.6461", "market_performance_confidence": "0.78963", "market_performance_score": "78.96", "market_performance_score_base": "74.39", "market_confidence_band": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "0.865714", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.869958", "confidence_safety_component": "0.618571", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.594242", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_total_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_component_summary": "history 87%; route 62%; environment 87%; safety 62%; probability 59%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "2.14", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4673", "edge_p": "0.1788", "edge_pct": "17.88", "ev": "0.3825", "quant_shape_score": "0.674049", "quant_ev": "0.382549", "quant_score": "0.739547", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.783", "historical_risk_score": "0.267", "historical_net_score": "0.663", "overall_sample_strength": "0.624", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.3", "best_goal_market_support": "0.811", "market_history_support": "0.753", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.99", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.7", "combined_btts_rate": "0.7", "ou15_history_support": "0.811", "ou25_history_support": "0.753", "ou35_history_support": "0.526", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.743", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.751", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.696", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.61", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.655", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.69", "team_history_score": "0.9937", "insights_signal_score": "0.3775", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.55", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — REAL BEDFORD vs BURY: Over 2.5 @ 2.14\nOUTLOOK — REAL BEDFORD 2.16 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | BURY 1.13 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.29 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — REAL BEDFORD is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.29 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals. The evidence supports the third goal needed for Over 2.5.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-1, 3-0.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.518", "data_completeness_score": "0.7493", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "1.0", "dom_live_index": "1.0", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.974", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.689", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.753", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.669", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.2784", "h2h_goals_avg": "1.5", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.283", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "2", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.729", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.7536", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.9051", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.9561", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.0096", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.9657", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.9561", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.0096", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.9657", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.161", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.1269", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.2879", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2049", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1173", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3222", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.858591", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.581981", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.635635", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.267773", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.79567", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.569082", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.345084", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.100/0.940)", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.85;history_piecewise_offset=+0.187", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[4, 4, 2, 4, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 4, 8, 4, 4]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 3, 4, 0, 3]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 3, 1, 1, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[4, 4, 2, 4, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 4, 8, 4, 4]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 3, 4, 0, 3]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 3, 1, 1, 0]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "3.2", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "4.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "3.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.98", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.47", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.25", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.364", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.364", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "goal_floor_score": "0.727", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.614", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.844", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.811", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.644", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.753", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "REAL BEDFORD", "away_team": "BURY", "ctm_final_source": "API_ONLY_OR_API_PRIMARY", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "api", "ctm_context_source": "api", "ctm_source_agreement": "single_source", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "0", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "0.0", "api_source_score": "0.997", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "", "away_attack_ratio": "", "home_defense_ratio": "", "away_defense_ratio": "", "home_form_ratio": "1.333", "away_form_ratio": "1.257", "home_defense_form_ratio": "2.639", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.066", "home_momentum": "1.0", "away_momentum": "2.0", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "home_rest_days": "7", "away_rest_days": "7", "h2h_source": "api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "1.5", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "0", "h2h_sofa_sample": "", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "2.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "1.5", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.2834686894262107", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "2.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "2", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "1.0", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.045", "xg_home_expected": "1.62", "xg_away_expected": "1.081", "xg_total_expected": "2.701", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.098", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "0.0", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.54", "market_home_win_prob": "0.545", "market_draw_prob": "0.25", "market_away_win_prob": "0.205", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.437", "api_reliability": "0.997", "sofa_reliability": "0.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.688", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "api_fixture_team_kickoff_match", "verification_warning": 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"current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "13.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.4615", "league_history_roi": "-0.3562", "league_history_guard": "watch", "league_history_label": "BELOW_50_WARNING", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Separate/secondary ticket only", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "PRIMARY_VALUE", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "704", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.605114", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5685273999602342", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.284915", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.7442555555555554", "synthetic_value_index": "0.5327102803738317", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.6945652087227414", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.801897", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.831806", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.12", "away_blank_risk": "0.14", "max_blank_risk": "0.14", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.5215", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "1.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "3.2", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.1601", "p_total_le2": "0.3619", "p_exactly2": "0.2018", "winner_quality_score": "0.6272", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6631", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.8608", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.833", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.3944", "winner_consistency_score": "0.255", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7842", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.76", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6242", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.399712", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.676045", "winning_chance_score": "0.636529", "value_opportunity_score": "0.807638", "winning_chance_rank": "22", "value_opportunity_rank": "4", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.7391,sample=0.6240)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS_V657_EVIDENCE_RECOVERY_TERMINAL_WARNINGS_SOFT", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "", "v652_missing_h2h": "", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "", "v655_terminal_policy": "", "v657_terminal_override_used": "1.0", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "Qualified V65.8 recovery or V69 side-specific Team Goals route; terminal hard vetoes remain enforced.", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.658034", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.657197", "publication_rank_score": "0.6578", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "16", "publication_value_rank": "3", "league_market_history_bets": "2", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "2", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.0", "league_market_history_profit": "-20.0", "league_market_history_roi": "-1.0", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.78963", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample).", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.659641", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.14. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 65%; reliability score 66%; profile similarity 79/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — REAL BEDFORD 2.16 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.96), BURY 1.13 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.01), match 3.29 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: REAL BEDFORD 1+ 88% / 2+ 64%; BURY 1+ 68% / 2+ 31%. Match: 2+ 84%, 3+ 64%, 4+ 42%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — REAL BEDFORD leans HOME, but direction is NOT CONFIRMED (LEAN); REAL BEDFORD 2+ 64% vs BURY 2+ 31%; gap 32pp. Do not infer a TG1.5 selection from this O2.5 total. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 61%; recent O2.5 support 80%; third-goal route 60% (STRONG). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample). | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 66% (MODERATE). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League,premier Division Central / OU OVER 2.5: 0-2 from 2 settled published CTM picks (0%, ROI -100.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 66%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — league is on CTM watch. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.2879", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.2879", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.1269", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0982308924983652", "v65_central_score": "2-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.161", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.1000997432935438", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1231733923758183", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "123", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-1, 2-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2763124634088619", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.161", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.1269", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "e55067df7eda187c", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "RUSHALL OLYMPIC vs LEAMINGTON", "league": "Southern Football League,premier Division Central", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6458", "prediction_odds": "2.14", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4673", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.55", "prediction_edge_pct": "17.85", "prediction_ev": "0.3819", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "2", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.529124", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.529124", "draw_probability_raw": "0.231458", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.231458", "direction_gap": "0.289707", "outlook_direction_score": "0.378148", "draw_risk_score": "0.310777", "draw_resistance_score": "0.671809", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.331631", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.5291", "draw_prob": "0.2315", "away_win_prob": "0.2394", "home_odds": "1.8", "draw_odds": "3.4", "away_odds": "3.6", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.540826", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.217835", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.241339", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.529124", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.231458", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.239417", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.529124", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.231458", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.239417", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.977", "expected_away_goals": "1.2589", "expected_total_goals": "3.2359", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.977", "away_goal_lambda": "1.2589", "match_goal_lambda": "3.2359", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0979", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1385", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.284", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.236", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.76", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.76", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.613049", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.613049", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.667,recent_scoring_conceding:0.519,form_momentum:0.499", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.59", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.186", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8615", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5877", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3171", "away_prob_1plus": "0.716", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3586", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1335", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8334", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6275", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4055", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.2359", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8334", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6275", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4055", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.5604", "direction_abs_score": "0.5604", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.9254", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.8075", "direction_team_edge": "0.6879", "direction_xg_edge": "0.5168", "direction_form_edge": "-0.0671", "direction_defence_edge": "0.4887", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6169", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7322", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3177", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.8543", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.9", "btts_scoring_floor": "1.0", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.0", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8039", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.6368", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.977", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.2589", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.236", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.7181", "losing_pick_risk_score": "3", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6276", "probability": "0.6458", "confidence_model": "0.6416", "performance_confidence": "0.6458", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6605", "confidence_gate": "0.6458", "model_conf_raw": "0.6416", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6458", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6458", "confidence": "0.6458", "market_performance_confidence": "0.807704", "market_performance_score": "80.77", "market_performance_score_base": "82.2", "market_confidence_band": "STRONG", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "1.0", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.848292", "confidence_safety_component": "0.951667", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.593333", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "-6.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_total_modifier": "-1.43", "confidence_component_summary": "history 100%; route 62%; environment 85%; safety 95%; probability 59%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "2.14", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4673", "edge_p": "0.1785", "edge_pct": "17.85", "ev": "0.3819", "quant_shape_score": "0.696352", "quant_ev": "0.381929", "quant_score": "0.785452", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.847", "historical_risk_score": "0.226", "historical_net_score": "0.745", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.247", "best_goal_market_support": "0.971", "market_history_support": "0.836", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.993", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "1.0", "combined_over25_rate": "0.9", "combined_over35_rate": "0.6", "combined_btts_rate": "0.9", "ou15_history_support": "0.971", "ou25_history_support": "0.836", "ou35_history_support": "0.466", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.877", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.886", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.718", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.605", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.599", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3625", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.55", "recommended_stake": "10", "rationale": "PICK — RUSHALL OLYMPIC vs LEAMINGTON: Over 2.5 @ 2.14\nOUTLOOK — RUSHALL OLYMPIC 1.98 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | LEAMINGTON 1.26 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.24 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (SOURCE_DIRECTION_CONFLICT).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.24 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals. The evidence supports the third goal needed for Over 2.5.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-1, 1-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8547", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.618", "dom_live_index": "0.618", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.552", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.706", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.694", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.673", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.2478", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.616", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.616", "h2h_confidence": "0.678", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "6", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.729", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6123", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.0177", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.7999", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.1361", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.936", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.7999", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.1361", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.936", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.977", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.2589", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.2359", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1771", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1228", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.834685", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.537133", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.678931", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.314165", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.791087", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.562319", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.338433", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.062/0.963);h2h_total_adj=0.999", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.59;history_piecewise_offset=+0.186", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 2, 4, 3]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 0, 2, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 2, 1, 5]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 3, 4, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 2, 4, 3]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 0, 2, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 2, 1, 5]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 3, 4, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 2, 2, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 1, 2, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 2, 2, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 1, 3, 2, 0]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.2", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.166", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.47", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.364", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.455", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.455", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "goal_floor_score": "0.853", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "RECENT_HISTORY_SOURCE_CONFLICT", "second_goal_security": "0.771", "second_goal_route_count": "3", "home_1plus_route": "1.0", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.6", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.894", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.79", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.81", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.76", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.88", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.81", "recent_history_source_conflict": "1", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.625", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.124", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.125", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.374", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.625", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "1.0", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.886", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.971", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.9", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.686", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.836", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "RUSHALL OLYMPIC", "away_team": "LEAMINGTON", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.32", "away_attack_ratio": "0.992", "home_defense_ratio": "1.145", "away_defense_ratio": "0.841", "home_form_ratio": "1.173", "away_form_ratio": "1.408", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.309", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.303", "home_momentum": "1.8", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.615714134026764", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "2.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.3296799539643607", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "6.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.5", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.6321205588285577", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "0.8333333333333334", "h2h_btts_agreement": "0.5", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "0.6666666666666667", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "1", "h2h_effective_sample": "6.467", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "6", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.618", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.601", "xg_away_expected": "1.159", "xg_total_expected": "2.76", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.122", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.441", "market_home_win_prob": "0.493", "market_draw_prob": "0.261", "market_away_win_prob": "0.246", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.437", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.783", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.375", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.562", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.688", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.2", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.8", 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"current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "13.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.4615", "league_history_roi": "-0.3562", "league_history_guard": "watch", "league_history_label": "BELOW_50_WARNING", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Separate/secondary ticket only", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "PRIMARY_VALUE", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "704", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.605114", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5685273999602342", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.284915", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.7442555555555554", "synthetic_value_index": "0.5327102803738317", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.6962392087227414", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.801897", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.957644", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.0", "away_blank_risk": "0.06", "max_blank_risk": "0.06", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.6368", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.2", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.1666", "p_total_le2": "0.3725", "p_exactly2": "0.2059", "winner_quality_score": "0.623", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6525", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.932", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.967", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.3572", "winner_consistency_score": "0.2099", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.6064", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.6682", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.732486", "soft_warning_count": "1", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.751427", "winning_chance_score": "0.699704", "value_opportunity_score": "0.836067", "winning_chance_rank": "6", "value_opportunity_rank": "1", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.8039,sample=0.6310)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.711798", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.659406", "publication_rank_score": "0.697128", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "6", "publication_value_rank": "2", "league_market_history_bets": "2", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "2", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.0", "league_market_history_profit": "-20.0", "league_market_history_roi": "-1.0", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.807704", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample).", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.711531", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.14. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 65%; reliability score 71%; profile similarity 81/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — RUSHALL OLYMPIC 1.98 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.80), LEAMINGTON 1.26 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.14), match 3.24 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: RUSHALL OLYMPIC 1+ 86% / 2+ 59%; LEAMINGTON 1+ 72% / 2+ 36%. Match: 2+ 83%, 3+ 63%, 4+ 41%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AMBIGUOUS; RUSHALL OLYMPIC 2+ 59% vs LEAMINGTON 2+ 36%. The O2.5 total may still qualify through a balanced/one-sided third-goal route, but no TG1.5 side should be inferred from the total alone. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 77%; recent O2.5 support 90%; third-goal route 60% (STRONG). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample). | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 71% (STRONG). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League,premier Division Central / OU OVER 2.5: 0-2 from 2 settled published CTM picks (0%, ROI -100.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 66%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — league is on CTM watch; recent-history sources conflict; goal supplier is ambiguous. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.2359", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.2359", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.2589", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.097873335419747", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.977", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0591611993274799", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1352246964319073", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "178", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2723662505417802", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.977", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.2589", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "STRONG", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "3baed653d090144a", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "UNITED OF MANCHESTER vs ALTRINCHAM", "league": "FA Cup", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6421", "prediction_odds": "2.01", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4975", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.56", "prediction_edge_pct": "14.46", "prediction_ev": "0.2906", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.498378", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.498378", "draw_probability_raw": "0.232756", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.232756", "direction_gap": "0.229513", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.224254", "draw_risk_score": "0.366173", "draw_resistance_score": "0.535095", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.37066", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.2689", "draw_prob": "0.2328", "away_win_prob": "0.4984", "home_odds": "3.2", "draw_odds": "3.55", "away_odds": "2.05", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.263505", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.22143", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.515065", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.268865", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.232756", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.498378", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.268865", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.232756", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.498378", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.3282", "expected_away_goals": "1.9298", "expected_total_goals": "3.258", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.3282", "away_goal_lambda": "1.9298", "match_goal_lambda": "3.258", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0986", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (7%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.265", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1452", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.258", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.692", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.691", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.412534", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.412534", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.391,recent_scoring_conceding:0.634,form_momentum:0.676", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_gap_trusted_by_structure:0.48", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.190", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.735", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3831", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1494", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8548", "away_prob_2plus": "0.5747", "away_prob_3plus": "0.3043", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8362", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6321", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4104", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.258", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8362", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6321", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4104", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.4826", "direction_abs_score": "0.4826", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.8997", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.627", "direction_team_edge": "-0.9178", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.4251", "direction_form_edge": "0.7242", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.8791", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.61897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6283", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7375", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3373", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.5881", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.5", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8202", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.6883", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.3282", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.9298", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.258", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.6016", "losing_pick_risk_score": "4", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6321", "probability": "0.6421", "confidence_model": "0.5683", "performance_confidence": "0.6421", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6228", "confidence_gate": "0.6421", "model_conf_raw": "0.5683", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6421", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6421", "confidence": "0.6421", "market_performance_confidence": "0.350997", "market_performance_score": "35.1", "market_performance_score_base": "40.6", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.46", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.643214", "confidence_safety_component": "0.423952", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.582121", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "-0.5", "confidence_total_modifier": "-5.5", "confidence_component_summary": "history 46%; route 13%; environment 64%; safety 42%; probability 58%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "2.01", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4975", "edge_p": "0.1446", "edge_pct": "14.46", "ev": "0.2906", "quant_shape_score": "0.684588", "quant_ev": "0.290603", "quant_score": "0.635147", "prematch_data_score": "0.63", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.782", "historical_risk_score": "0.229", "historical_net_score": "0.679", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.366", "best_goal_market_support": "0.809", "market_history_support": "0.611", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.993", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.5", "ou15_history_support": "0.809", "ou25_history_support": "0.611", "ou35_history_support": "0.308", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.616", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.624", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.681", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.504", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.459", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.775", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.0312", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "standings_missing|cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.56", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — UNITED OF MANCHESTER vs ALTRINCHAM: Over 2.5 @ 2.01\nOUTLOOK — UNITED OF MANCHESTER 1.33 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | ALTRINCHAM 1.93 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.26 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (LAMBDA_DIRECTION_UNCONFIRMED).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.26 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.734", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.576", "dom_live_index": "0.576", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.622", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.775", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.748", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.752", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.2744", "h2h_goals_avg": "0.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.181", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "0.875", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6388", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.1213", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.5968", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.249", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.7787", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "3.0277", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.249", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.7787", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "3.0277", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.3282", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.9298", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.258", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0792", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1511", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2303", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.713209", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.355006", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.831142", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.530796", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.804951", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.582987", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.358974", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.058/0.965)", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_gap_trusted_by_structure:0.48;history_piecewise_offset=+0.190", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 5, 4, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 1, 0, 0]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 2, 0]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 0, 2, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 5, 4, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 1, 0, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 1, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 0, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.8", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.47", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.748", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.357", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.357", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.7", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.516", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.6", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.836", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.809", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.636", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.611", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "UNITED OF MANCHESTER", "away_team": "ALTRINCHAM", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.727", "away_attack_ratio": "0.742", "home_defense_ratio": "0.776", "away_defense_ratio": "1.943", "home_form_ratio": "1.867", "away_form_ratio": "1.01", "home_defense_form_ratio": "0.582", "away_defense_form_ratio": "0.942", "home_momentum": "1.8", "away_momentum": "1.4", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "0.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "0.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.1812692469220181", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "1.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "1", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.576", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.175", "xg_away_expected": "1.517", "xg_total_expected": "2.691", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.051", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.342", "market_home_win_prob": "0.289", "market_draw_prob": "0.26", "market_away_win_prob": "0.451", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.465", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.669", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.5", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "2.062", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.188", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.062", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.8", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.2", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.0", "league_avg_home_scoring": "2.063", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.601", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "2.8", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.0", "home_scoring_std": "1.47", "away_scoring_std": "0.748", "home_conceding_std": "1.166", "away_conceding_std": "0.894", "match_goal_volatility": "1.07", "home_score_consistency": "0.16", "away_score_consistency": "0.572", "home_over15_rate": "1.0", "away_over15_rate": "0.6", "home_over25_rate": "0.8", "away_over25_rate": "0.4", "home_over35_rate": "0.6", "away_over35_rate": "0.2", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "home_attack_trend": "1.3", "away_attack_trend": "0.012", "home_defense_trend": "-0.862", "away_defense_trend": "-0.062", "home_defense_improvement": "0.862", "away_defense_improvement": "0.062", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.015", "defense_ratio_gap": "-1.166", "form_attack_gap": "0.857", "form_defense_gap": "0.36", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.344", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.289", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.262", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.449", 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"v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_blocked_support_only", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "704", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.605114", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5685273999602342", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.284915", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.7442555555555554", "synthetic_value_index": "0.5024875621890547", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5613513009950248", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.12", "away_blank_risk": "0.26", "max_blank_risk": "0.26", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.6883", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.8", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.8", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.1638", "p_total_le2": "0.3679", "p_exactly2": "0.2041", "winner_quality_score": "0.6119", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6444", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.7734", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.767", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.521", "winner_consistency_score": "0.3111", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7859", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.5175", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.713325", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "low_scoring_consistency|weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.594588", "winning_chance_score": "0.453269", "value_opportunity_score": "0.692968", "winning_chance_rank": "38", "value_opportunity_rank": "14", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.443796", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.4929", "publication_rank_score": "0.457545", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "29", "publication_value_rank": "16", "league_market_history_bets": "4", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.75", "league_market_history_profit": "15.9", "league_market_history_roi": "0.3975", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.350997", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.446858", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.01. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 64%; reliability score 45%; profile similarity 35/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — UNITED OF MANCHESTER 1.33 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.25), ALTRINCHAM 1.93 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.78), match 3.26 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: UNITED OF MANCHESTER 1+ 74% / 2+ 38%; ALTRINCHAM 1+ 85% / 2+ 57%. Match: 2+ 84%, 3+ 63%, 4+ 41%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AMBIGUOUS; UNITED OF MANCHESTER 2+ 38% vs ALTRINCHAM 2+ 57%. The O2.5 total may still qualify through a balanced/one-sided third-goal route, but no TG1.5 side should be inferred from the total alone. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 52%; recent O2.5 support 60%; third-goal route 40% (NOT_SELECTED_LINE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 45% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — FA Cup / OU OVER 2.5: 3-1 from 4 settled published CTM picks (75%, ROI +39.8%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 49%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — goal supplier is ambiguous. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED|OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.258", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.258", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.9298", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0985926082451569", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.3282", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0572229723107081", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "-0.0170935800049007", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "130", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2679548585588557", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.3282", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.9298", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "93cf91d8d5e18835", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "TAUNTON TOWN vs BRACKNELL TOWN", "league": "Southern Football League, Premier Division South", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6383", "prediction_odds": "2.17", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4608", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.57", "prediction_edge_pct": "17.75", "prediction_ev": "0.3851", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home lean", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.521976", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.521976", "draw_probability_raw": "0.230217", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.230217", "direction_gap": "0.27417", "outlook_direction_score": "0.236037", "draw_risk_score": "0.337053", "draw_resistance_score": "0.537948", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.419054", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.522", "draw_prob": "0.2302", "away_win_prob": "0.2478", "home_odds": "1.85", "draw_odds": "3.4", "away_odds": "3.6", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.534004", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.216773", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.249223", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.521976", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.230217", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.247806", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.521976", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.230217", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.247806", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.9949", "expected_away_goals": "1.3071", "expected_total_goals": "3.302", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.9949", "away_goal_lambda": "1.3071", "match_goal_lambda": "3.302", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.096", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (7%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.136", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2706", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.302", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.807", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.807", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.605583", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.605583", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.660,recent_scoring_conceding:0.487,form_momentum:0.351", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.57", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.188", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.864", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5926", "home_prob_3plus": "0.322", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7294", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3757", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1445", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8416", "match_prob_3plus": "0.641", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4201", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.302", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8416", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.641", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4201", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.2517", "direction_abs_score": "0.2517", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.6829", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.7908", "direction_team_edge": "-0.1498", "direction_xg_edge": "0.5088", "direction_form_edge": "-0.3701", "direction_defence_edge": "0.1083", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.58897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6302", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7281", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3024", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6159", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8227", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.6552", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.9949", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.3071", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.302", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.6879", "losing_pick_risk_score": "6", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "away_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.641", "probability": "0.6383", "confidence_model": "0.5557", "performance_confidence": "0.6383", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.5115", "confidence_gate": "0.6383", "model_conf_raw": "0.5557", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6383", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6383", "confidence": "0.6383", "market_performance_confidence": "0.613046", "market_performance_score": "61.3", "market_performance_score_base": "61.73", "market_confidence_band": "WATCH", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.531429", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.661548", "confidence_safety_component": "0.687048", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.570606", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_total_modifier": "-0.43", "confidence_component_summary": "history 53%; route 62%; environment 66%; safety 69%; probability 57%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "2.17", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4608", "edge_p": "0.1775", "edge_pct": "17.75", "ev": "0.3851", "quant_shape_score": "0.633588", "quant_ev": "0.385102", "quant_score": "0.654076", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.798", "historical_risk_score": "0.214", "historical_net_score": "0.702", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.359", "best_goal_market_support": "0.83", "market_history_support": "0.636", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.991", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.83", "ou25_history_support": "0.636", "ou35_history_support": "0.333", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.695", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.823", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.585", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.535", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.529", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.4562", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.57", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — TAUNTON TOWN vs BRACKNELL TOWN: Over 2.5 @ 2.17\nOUTLOOK — TAUNTON TOWN 1.99 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | BRACKNELL TOWN 1.31 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.30 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (LAMBDA_DIRECTION_UNCONFIRMED).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.30 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-1, 1-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.751", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.619", "dom_live_index": "0.619", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.556", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.567", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.571", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.546", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3899", "h2h_goals_avg": "3.2", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_confidence": "0.632", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "5", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.729", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6283", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.0605", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.8151", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.1822", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.9973", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.8151", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.1822", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.9973", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.9949", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.3071", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.302", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1798", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1249", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3047", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.837178", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.541641", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.693397", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.33093", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.800448", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.576205", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.352163", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.062/0.963);h2h_total_adj=1.045", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.57;history_piecewise_offset=+0.188", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 1, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 3, 2, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 0, 0, 4]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 4, 1, 2, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 1, 1, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 3, 2, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 2, 0, 0, 4]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 4, 1, 2, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.748", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.497", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.628", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40", "second_goal_security": "0.634", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.919", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.83", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.719", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.636", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "TAUNTON TOWN", "away_team": "BRACKNELL TOWN", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.138", "away_attack_ratio": "1.194", "home_defense_ratio": "0.946", "away_defense_ratio": "1.004", "home_form_ratio": "0.6", "away_form_ratio": "0.985", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.113", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.143", "home_momentum": "0.8", "away_momentum": "1.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "3.2", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "5.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "3.2", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.6321205588285577", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "5.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "5", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.619", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.624", "xg_away_expected": "1.183", "xg_total_expected": "2.807", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.151", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.441", "market_home_win_prob": "0.486", "market_draw_prob": "0.264", "market_away_win_prob": "0.25", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.43", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.714", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "2.0", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.438", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.625", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.2", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.6", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.0", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.757", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.361", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.0", "home_scoring_std": "0.748", "away_scoring_std": "1.497", "home_conceding_std": "1.02", "away_conceding_std": "1.095", "match_goal_volatility": "1.09", "home_score_consistency": "0.572", "away_score_consistency": "0.145", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.8", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.6", "home_over35_rate": "0.4", "away_over35_rate": "0.4", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "home_attack_trend": "-0.8", "away_attack_trend": "-0.025", "home_defense_trend": "0.162", "away_defense_trend": "0.25", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.162", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.25", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.056", "defense_ratio_gap": "-0.058", "form_attack_gap": "-0.385", "form_defense_gap": "0.03", "historical_goal_balance": "0.344", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.487", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.263", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.249", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.441", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.01", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.313", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "2-0 | 3-2 | 2-3 | 0-2 | 1-1", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-04-18 | 2025-12-06 | 2025-12-06 | 2025-02-08 | 2024-11-02", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"2-0\", \"3-2\", \"2-3\", \"0-2\", \"1-1\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-04-18\", \"2025-12-06\", \"2025-12-06\", \"2025-02-08\", \"2024-11-02\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"2-0\", \"3-2\", \"2-3\", \"0-2\", \"1-1\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "1.0", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.4", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.4", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", 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fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "704", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.605114", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5685273999602342", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.284915", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.7442555555555554", "synthetic_value_index": "0.5391705069124424", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.6244639427035329", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "2.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.801897", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "0.7139", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.14", "away_blank_risk": "0.34", "max_blank_risk": "0.34", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.6552", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.2", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.6", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "1", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.1584", "p_total_le2": "0.359", "p_exactly2": "0.2007", "winner_quality_score": "0.6021", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.6105", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.7842", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.633", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.5505", "winner_consistency_score": "0.3048", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7848", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.548", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.719087", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "away_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.511086", "winning_chance_score": "0.439941", "value_opportunity_score": "0.721573", "winning_chance_rank": "41", "value_opportunity_rank": "13", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=57|ref_wr=0.7544|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.538009", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.544523", "publication_rank_score": "0.539833", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "23", "publication_value_rank": "11", "league_market_history_bets": "3", "league_market_history_wins": "1", "league_market_history_losses": "2", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.3333", "league_market_history_profit": "-8.6", "league_market_history_roi": "-0.2867", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.613046", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.530569", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.17. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 64%; reliability score 53%; profile similarity 61/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — TAUNTON TOWN 1.99 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.82), BRACKNELL TOWN 1.31 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.18), match 3.30 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: TAUNTON TOWN 1+ 86% / 2+ 59%; BRACKNELL TOWN 1+ 73% / 2+ 38%. Match: 2+ 84%, 3+ 64%, 4+ 42%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AMBIGUOUS; TAUNTON TOWN 2+ 59% vs BRACKNELL TOWN 2+ 38%. The O2.5 total may still qualify through a balanced/one-sided third-goal route, but no TG1.5 side should be inferred from the total alone. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 63%; recent O2.5 support 60%; third-goal route 60% (PASS_EVIDENCE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 53% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League, Premier Division South / OU OVER 2.5: 1-2 from 3 settled published CTM picks (33%, ROI -28.7%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 54%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently; goal supplier is ambiguous. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.302", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.302", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.3071", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0959819492904404", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.9949", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0743104154755098", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1419282256527539", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "174", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2651503658560324", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.9949", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.3071", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "WATCH", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "c362e268823209d9", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "GLOUCESTER vs BARROW", "league": "FA Cup", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6372", "prediction_odds": "1.78", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5618", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.57", "prediction_edge_pct": "7.54", "prediction_ev": "0.1342", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.494946", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.494946", "draw_probability_raw": "0.234488", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.234488", "direction_gap": "0.22438", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.152329", "draw_risk_score": "0.385857", "draw_resistance_score": "0.520887", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.335493", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.2706", "draw_prob": "0.2345", "away_win_prob": "0.4949", "home_odds": "3.75", "draw_odds": "3.8", "away_odds": "1.8", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.264994", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.223071", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.511934", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.270566", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.234488", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.494946", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.270566", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.234488", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.494946", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.3191", "expected_away_goals": "1.9067", "expected_total_goals": "3.2258", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.3191", "away_goal_lambda": "1.9067", "match_goal_lambda": "3.2258", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0999", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2674", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1486", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.2259", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.745", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.745", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.414046", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.414046", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.325,recent_scoring_conceding:0.704,form_momentum:0.771", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_gap_trusted_by_structure:0.46", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.188", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7326", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3799", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1473", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8514", "away_prob_2plus": "0.5682", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2981", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8321", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6255", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4032", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.2258", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8321", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6255", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4032", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.1001", "direction_abs_score": "0.1001", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.4316", "direction_gap_quality": "WEAK", "direction_market_edge": "-0.8366", "direction_team_edge": "0.2453", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.2606", "direction_form_edge": "0.7289", "direction_defence_edge": "0.343", "direction_agreement": "0.6", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.58897", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6238", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7354", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3296", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.4516", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.4", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.4", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.6", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8181", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.6918", "btts_h2h_used": "0", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.3191", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.9067", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.2259", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.5876", "losing_pick_risk_score": "11", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|high_blank_risk|away_hard_blank_warning|away_weak_two_goal_floor|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6255", "probability": "0.6372", "confidence_model": "0.5754", "performance_confidence": "0.6372", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.673", "confidence_gate": "0.6372", "model_conf_raw": "0.5754", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6372", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6372", "confidence": "0.6372", "market_performance_confidence": "0.147477", "market_performance_score": "14.75", "market_performance_score_base": "39.75", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.494286", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.629798", "confidence_safety_component": "0.337286", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.567273", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-27.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "-1.46", "confidence_total_modifier": "-25.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 49%; route 13%; environment 63%; safety 34%; probability 57%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "1.78", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5618", "edge_p": "0.0754", "edge_pct": "7.54", "ev": "0.1342", "quant_shape_score": "0.699315", "quant_ev": "0.134198", "quant_score": "0.51532", "prematch_data_score": "0.63", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.77", "historical_risk_score": "0.261", "historical_net_score": "0.652", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.271", "best_goal_market_support": "0.744", "market_history_support": "0.623", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.996", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.4", "ou15_history_support": "0.744", "ou25_history_support": "0.623", "ou35_history_support": "0.319", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.542", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.651", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.529", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.376", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.449", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.6", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.775", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.0312", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "standings_missing|cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.57", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — GLOUCESTER vs BARROW: Over 2.5 @ 1.78\nOUTLOOK — GLOUCESTER 1.32 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | BARROW 1.91 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.23 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — total-goal evidence may be usable, but the Home/Away split is not independently confirmed (LAMBDA_DIRECTION_UNCONFIRMED).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.23 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.734", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.877", "dom_live_index": "0.877", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.836", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.831", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.956", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.852", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.4072", "h2h_goals_avg": "0.0", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.181", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "1", "selection_regime_fit": "0.875", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6388", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.1136", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.5759", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.2413", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.7566", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.9979", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.2413", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.7566", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.9979", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.3191", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.9067", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.2258", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0778", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1501", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.228", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.710992", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.352246", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.827369", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.524126", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.800538", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.576339", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.352298", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.088/0.947)", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_gap_trusted_by_structure:0.46;history_piecewise_offset=+0.188", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 5, 1, 1, 3]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 2, 0, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 2, 0, 0]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 5, 1, 0, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 5, 1, 1, 3]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 0, 2, 0, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 2, 0, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 5, 1, 0, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "0.6", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "0.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.789", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.8", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.667", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.667", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "goal_floor_score": "0.499", "goal_floor_status": "BLOCK", "goal_floor_hard_block": "1", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_60|SCORING_SPIKY_GE_65|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55|ONE_SIDED_GOAL_DEPENDENCY", "second_goal_security": "0.476", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.4", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.2", "btts_1plus_route": "0.566", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.4", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.654", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.875", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.744", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.675", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.623", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "GLOUCESTER", "away_team": "BARROW", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.792", "away_attack_ratio": "0.758", "home_defense_ratio": "1.32", "away_defense_ratio": "1.166", "home_form_ratio": "1.333", "away_form_ratio": "0.533", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.067", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.231", "home_momentum": "1.8", "away_momentum": "0.8", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "0.0", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "1.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "0.0", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.1812692469220181", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "1.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "1", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.877", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.27", "xg_away_expected": "1.475", "xg_total_expected": "2.745", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "-0.013", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.206", "market_home_win_prob": "0.246", "market_draw_prob": "0.242", "market_away_win_prob": "0.512", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.524", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.669", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.5", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.125", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.125", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.625", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.0", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "away_form_avg_scored": "0.6", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.0", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.895", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.485", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_gf_avg": "0.6", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.0", "home_scoring_std": "1.789", "away_scoring_std": "0.8", "home_conceding_std": "0.98", "away_conceding_std": "1.789", "match_goal_volatility": "1.339", "home_score_consistency": "0.0", "away_score_consistency": "0.543", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.6", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.6", "home_over35_rate": "0.4", "away_over35_rate": "0.4", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "home_attack_trend": "0.5", "away_attack_trend": "-0.525", "home_defense_trend": "0.075", "away_defense_trend": "0.375", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.075", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.375", "attack_ratio_gap": "0.034", "defense_ratio_gap": "0.154", "form_attack_gap": "0.8", "form_defense_gap": "0.164", "historical_goal_balance": "0.438", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.245", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.241", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.514", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.526", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.002", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "LOW_SAMPLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "0", "h2h_support_score": "0.0", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.18", "h2h_direct_scores": "0-0", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-10-17", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"0-0\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-10-17\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"0-0\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "0.0", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.0", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.0", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "home_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "2.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.789", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.5", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.125", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "1.125", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.625", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.112", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.319", "best_second_goal_route": "0.566", "second_best_goal_route": "0.4", "third_second_goal_route": "0.2", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "1.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "3.333333", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.166667", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.833333", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_draws": "3.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "1.5", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "1.833333", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-10-10", "context_away_away_form_losses": "1.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.166667", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.166667", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "0.833333", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.666667", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "1.5", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"W\", \"W\", \"L\", \"D\", \"D\", \"D\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"2-1\", \"4-2\", \"0-1\", \"2-2\", \"1-1\", \"2-2\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "6.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.666667", "context_away_away_form_wins": "2.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "2.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "1.0", "context_away_recent_events_json": "[{\"event_id\": \"17273400\", \"start_timestamp\": 1792245600, \"date\": 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"0", "structural_warning_count": "2", "soft_warning_reasons": "away_hard_blank_warning|away_weak_two_goal_floor|low_scoring_consistency|weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "high_blank_risk|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.433314", "winning_chance_score": "0.366086", "value_opportunity_score": "0.49748", "winning_chance_rank": "50", "value_opportunity_rank": "42", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.8181,sample=0.6310)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS_V657_EVIDENCE_RECOVERY_TERMINAL_WARNINGS_SOFT", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "", "v652_missing_h2h": "", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "", "v655_terminal_policy": "", "v657_terminal_override_used": "1.0", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "Qualified V65.8 recovery or V69 side-specific Team Goals route; terminal hard vetoes remain enforced.", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.341592", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.389081", "publication_rank_score": "0.354889", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "35", "publication_value_rank": "28", "league_market_history_bets": "4", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.75", "league_market_history_profit": "15.9", "league_market_history_roi": "0.3975", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.147477", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.336729", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.78. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 64%; reliability score 34%; profile similarity 15/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — GLOUCESTER 1.32 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.24), BARROW 1.91 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.76), match 3.23 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: GLOUCESTER 1+ 73% / 2+ 38%; BARROW 1+ 85% / 2+ 57%. Match: 2+ 83%, 3+ 63%, 4+ 40%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AMBIGUOUS; GLOUCESTER 2+ 38% vs BARROW 2+ 57%. The O2.5 total may still qualify through a balanced/one-sided third-goal route, but no TG1.5 side should be inferred from the total alone. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor BLOCK; second-goal security 48%; recent O2.5 support 60%; third-goal route 40% (NOT_SELECTED_LINE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 34% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — FA Cup / OU OVER 2.5: 3-1 from 4 settled published CTM picks (75%, ROI +39.8%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 39%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 60% recently; goal supplier is ambiguous. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=317, win rate 68%, synthetic ROI 16%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED|OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED|OU25_SECOND_GOAL_FLOOR_NOT_CLEAN); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.2258", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.2258", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.9067", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0999109174975458", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.3191", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0246172401035886", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.030262017511407", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "129", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2709027217965116", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.3191", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.9067", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "92fb6986f12e4451", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 14:00:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 16:00:00", "match": "RIO AVE vs PORTIMONENSE", "league": "U23 Championship", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6335", "prediction_odds": "2.23", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4484", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.58", "prediction_edge_pct": "18.5", "prediction_ev": "0.4126", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "3", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.639646", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.639646", "draw_probability_raw": "0.205973", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.205973", "direction_gap": "0.433674", "outlook_direction_score": "0.470821", "draw_risk_score": "0.241433", "draw_resistance_score": "0.776255", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.211624", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.6396", "draw_prob": "0.206", "away_win_prob": "0.1544", "home_odds": "1.6", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "4.7", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.655867", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.190159", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.153974", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.639646", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.205973", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.154381", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.639646", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.205973", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.154381", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.233", "expected_away_goals": "0.9856", "expected_total_goals": "3.2186", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "0", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "0 goals most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.233", "away_goal_lambda": "0.9856", "match_goal_lambda": "3.2186", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "0 goals most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-0", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-0", "expected_score_probability": "0.0997", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1072", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.3732", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.2186", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.557", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.557", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.697632", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.697632", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.746,recent_scoring_conceding:0.493,form_momentum:0.416", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=1.02", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.184", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8928", "home_prob_2plus": "0.6534", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3861", "away_prob_1plus": "0.6268", "away_prob_2plus": "0.259", "away_prob_3plus": "0.0777", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8312", "match_prob_3plus": "0.624", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4016", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.2186", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8312", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.624", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4016", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.6481", "direction_abs_score": "0.6481", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.9254", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.9328", "direction_team_edge": "0.9033", "direction_xg_edge": "0.7645", "direction_form_edge": "-0.5413", "direction_defence_edge": "0.6586", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5596", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.721", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.2766", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6405", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.8", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.2", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.6785", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.4414", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.233", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "0.9856", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.2186", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "1.2473", "losing_pick_risk_score": "5", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "one_sided_high_xg|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.624", "probability": "0.6335", "confidence_model": "0.6688", "performance_confidence": "0.6335", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6285", "confidence_gate": "0.6335", "model_conf_raw": "0.6688", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6335", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6335", "confidence": "0.6335", "market_performance_confidence": "0.411758", "market_performance_score": "41.18", "market_performance_score_base": "41.27", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.377143", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.626798", "confidence_safety_component": "0.642714", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.556061", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "-0.09", "confidence_total_modifier": "-0.09", "confidence_component_summary": "history 38%; route 13%; environment 63%; safety 64%; probability 56%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "2.23", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4484", "edge_p": "0.185", "edge_pct": "18.5", "ev": "0.4126", "quant_shape_score": "0.645638", "quant_ev": "0.412625", "quant_score": "0.681193", "prematch_data_score": "0.55", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.812", "historical_risk_score": "0.232", "historical_net_score": "0.707", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.417", "best_goal_market_support": "0.757", "market_history_support": "0.582", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.989", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.71", "ou25_history_support": "0.582", "ou35_history_support": "0.288", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.661", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.757", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.579", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.539", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.391", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.55", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|low_trust_league_cap", "fair_odds": "1.58", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — RIO AVE vs PORTIMONENSE: Over 2.5 @ 2.23\nOUTLOOK — RIO AVE 2.23 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | PORTIMONENSE 0.99 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.22 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — RIO AVE is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (elite directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.22 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-0, 3-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8498", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.968", "dom_live_index": "0.968", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.931", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.502", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.592", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.491", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.25", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.6", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.95", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "10", "selection_regime_fit": "0.875", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6478", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.8049", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.7823", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "2.0172", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "0.8743", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.8915", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "2.0172", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "0.8743", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.8915", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.233", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "0.9856", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.2186", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2158", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1113", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3271", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.866973", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.59863", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.582846", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.218128", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.784049", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.552068", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.328476", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.097/0.942);h2h_total_adj=1.002", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=1.02;history_piecewise_offset=+0.184", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 1, 2, 0]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 0, 3, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 1, 3, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 2, 2, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 1, 0, 3, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 1, 3, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 1, 2, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 0, 1, 0, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 1, 0, 2, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 0, 0, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 2, 0, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.02", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.02", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.375", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.429", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.429", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.706", "goal_floor_status": "STRONG", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "NONE", "second_goal_security": "0.632", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.8", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.8", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.8", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.83", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.48", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.93", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.85", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.773", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.124", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.313", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.062", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.0", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.313", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.741", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.71", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.541", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.582", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "RIO AVE", "away_team": "PORTIMONENSE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.279", "away_attack_ratio": "0.833", "home_defense_ratio": "1.426", "away_defense_ratio": "0.754", "home_form_ratio": "0.948", "away_form_ratio": "1.178", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.6", "away_defense_form_ratio": "0.686", "home_momentum": "1.4", "away_momentum": "1.8", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "7", "away_rest_days": "7", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.6", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "10.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.6", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.8646647167633873", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "10.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.6", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.8111243971624382", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "13.5", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "10", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.968", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.639", "xg_away_expected": "0.918", "xg_total_expected": "2.557", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.065", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.721", "market_home_win_prob": "0.56", "market_draw_prob": "0.249", "market_away_win_prob": "0.191", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.419", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.81", "league_data_tier": "LOW_TRUST", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.688", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.0", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.188", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "home_form_avg_scored": "1.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.6", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.4", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.32", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.426", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "1.6", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.6", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "home_scoring_std": "1.02", "away_scoring_std": "1.02", "home_conceding_std": "1.02", "away_conceding_std": "0.748", "match_goal_volatility": "0.952", "home_score_consistency": "0.417", "away_score_consistency": "0.417", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.6", "home_over25_rate": "0.6", "away_over25_rate": "0.6", "home_over35_rate": "0.6", "away_over35_rate": "0.2", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "home_attack_trend": "-0.088", "away_attack_trend": "0.212", "home_defense_trend": "0.6", "away_defense_trend": "-0.55", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.6", "away_defense_improvement": "0.55", "attack_ratio_gap": "0.446", "defense_ratio_gap": "0.672", "form_attack_gap": "-0.231", "form_defense_gap": "-0.914", "historical_goal_balance": "0.625", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.559", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.251", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.19", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.43", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.011", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.471", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-0 | 1-3 | 2-1 | 0-2 | 1-1 | 1-1 | 6-0 | 0-0 | 3-2 | 0-1", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-04-21 | 2026-02-07 | 2025-04-01 | 2025-01-21 | 2024-04-02 | 2024-01-29 | 2023-03-29 | 2023-02-04 | 2022-03-08 | 2022-01-25", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"1-0\", \"1-3\", \"2-1\", \"0-2\", \"1-1\", \"1-1\", \"6-0\", \"0-0\", \"3-2\", \"0-1\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-04-21\", \"2026-02-07\", \"2025-04-01\", \"2025-01-21\", \"2024-04-02\", \"2024-01-29\", \"2023-03-29\", \"2023-02-04\", \"2022-03-08\", \"2022-01-25\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"1-0\", \"1-3\", \"2-1\", \"0-2\", \"1-1\", \"1-1\", \"6-0\", \"0-0\", \"3-2\", \"0-1\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "0.7", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.4", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.3", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "home_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.02", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.688", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.0", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "1.188", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.812", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.062", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "0.875", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.75", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.0", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.288", "best_second_goal_route": "0.8", "second_best_goal_route": "0.4", "third_second_goal_route": "0.4", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "10.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "AWAY_DERIVED_BOTTOM_QUARTILE", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "1.833333", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.666667", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.333333", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.333333", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.333333", "context_away_away_form_draws": "3.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "1.333333", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-09-22", "context_away_away_form_losses": "3.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.166667", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.166667", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"D\", \"L\", \"D\", \"D\", \"L\", \"L\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"0-0\", \"0-2\", \"0-0\", \"1-1\", \"0-1\", \"2-4\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "6.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.166667", "context_away_away_form_wins": "0.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "1.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "0.0", "context_away_recent_events_json": "[{\"event_id\": \"16567901\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791885600, \"date\": \"2026-10-13\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Académico Viseu U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"17061583\", \"start_timestamp\": 1790074800, \"date\": \"2026-09-22\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 0, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Santa Clara U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16567882\", \"start_timestamp\": 1789466400, \"date\": \"2026-09-15\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Gil Vicente U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16567879\", \"start_timestamp\": 1788861600, \"date\": \"2026-09-08\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"FC Felgueiras 1932 U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16567865\", \"start_timestamp\": 1788256800, \"date\": \"2026-09-01\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 0, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Moreirense FC U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16567459\", \"start_timestamp\": 1787675400, \"date\": \"2026-08-25\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"SC Farense U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16567305\", \"start_timestamp\": 1787068800, \"date\": \"2026-08-18\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Torreense U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16567267\", \"start_timestamp\": 1786464000, \"date\": \"2026-08-11\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 2, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 4, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"FC Penafiel U23\", \"tournament\": \"U23 Liga Next Gen, 1st Phase\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"11341\"}, {\"event_id\": \"15275022\", 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"main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.6785,sample=0.6310)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "2", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.658058", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.517685", "publication_rank_score": "0.618754", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "2", "rank_number": "2", "rank_display": "#2", "publication_rank": "15", "publication_value_rank": "15", "league_market_history_bets": "4", "league_market_history_wins": "3", "league_market_history_losses": "1", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.75", "league_market_history_profit": "25.5", "league_market_history_roi": "0.6375", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.411758", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.658671", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.23. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 63%; reliability score 66%; profile similarity 41/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — RIO AVE 2.23 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 2.02), PORTIMONENSE 0.99 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 0.87), match 3.22 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: RIO AVE 1+ 89% / 2+ 65%; PORTIMONENSE 1+ 63% / 2+ 26%. Match: 2+ 83%, 3+ 62%, 4+ 40%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-0 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — HOME / RIO AVE, ELITE; RIO AVE 2+ 65% vs PORTIMONENSE 2+ 26%; supplier gap 39pp; supplier reliability 67%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; second-goal security 63%; recent O2.5 support 60%; third-goal route 40% (PASS_EVIDENCE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 66% (MODERATE). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — U23 Championship / OU OVER 2.5: 3-1 from 4 settled published CTM picks (75%, ROI +63.7%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 52%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.2186000000000003", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.2186000000000003", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "0.9856", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0997532906440101", "v65_central_score": "2-0", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.233", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0905910414500074", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0334369187342148", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "103", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2874147739779908", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.233", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "0.9856", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "47d31b1c9ef6ebd9", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "YORK vs ACCRINGTON", "league": "LEAGUE TWO", "market": "1X2", "selection": "Home", "prediction_label": "YORK to win", "prediction_market": "1X2", "prediction_selection": "HOME", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_RESULT", "prediction_direction": "HOME", "prediction_probability": "0.63324", "prediction_odds": "1.7", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5882352941176471", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.579180089697429", "prediction_edge_pct": "4.500470588235295", "prediction_ev": "0.076508", "prediction_probability_source": "home_win_prob_calibrated", "prediction_odds_source": "home_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_1X2_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_ODDS_AND_OUTLOOK_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "OUTCOME", "fixture_publication_families": "OUTCOME", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.63324", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.63324", "draw_probability_raw": "0.204281", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.204281", "direction_gap": "0.428959", "outlook_direction_score": "0.687208", "draw_risk_score": "0.229115", "draw_resistance_score": "0.850804", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.148849", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.6332", "draw_prob": "0.2043", "away_win_prob": "0.1625", "home_odds": "1.7", "draw_odds": "3.75", "away_odds": "4.3", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.650361", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.188585", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.161054", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.63324", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.204281", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.16248", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.63324", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.204281", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.16248", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.2804", "expected_away_goals": "1.0489", "expected_total_goals": "3.3293", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.2804", "away_goal_lambda": "1.0489", "match_goal_lambda": "3.3293", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0977", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1022", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.3503", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.3293", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.573", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.573", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.687573", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.687573", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.717,recent_scoring_conceding:0.781,form_momentum:0.813", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=1.01", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.188", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8978", "home_prob_2plus": "0.6646", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3988", "away_prob_1plus": "0.6497", "away_prob_2plus": "0.2822", "away_prob_3plus": "0.0895", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8449", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6464", "match_prob_4plus": "0.4261", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.3293", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8449", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6464", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.4261", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.8241", "direction_abs_score": "0.8241", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.9796", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.9027", "direction_team_edge": "0.8946", "direction_xg_edge": "0.7536", "direction_form_edge": "0.8005", "direction_defence_edge": "0.5117", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.8343", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5833", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7376", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.3377", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.255", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.2", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.2", "btts_concession_floor": "0.4", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.8", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.6", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7022", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.46", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.2804", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.0489", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.3293", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "1.2315", "losing_pick_risk_score": "0", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "clean", "probability_raw": "0.6332", "probability": "0.6332", "confidence_model": "0.6623", "performance_confidence": "0.6332", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.8078", "confidence_gate": "0.6332", "model_conf_raw": "0.6623", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6332", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6332", "confidence": "0.6332", "market_performance_confidence": "0.727758", "market_performance_score": "72.78", "market_performance_score_base": "97.78", "market_confidence_band": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_method": "1X2_DIRECTION_GAP_V66_CALIBRATED", "market_confidence_validated_market": "0", "market_confidence_minimum": "1.01", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "1.0", "confidence_route_component": "1.0", "confidence_environment_component": "1.0", "confidence_safety_component": "0.916814", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.555152", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-27.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "-6.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "-25.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 100%; route 100%; environment 100%; safety 92%; probability 56%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "1.7", "odds_expected_col": "home_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5882", "edge_p": "0.045", "edge_pct": "4.5", "ev": "0.0765", "quant_shape_score": "", "quant_ev": "", "quant_score": "", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.816", "historical_risk_score": "0.233", "historical_net_score": "0.711", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.429", "best_goal_market_support": "0.757", "market_history_support": "0.757", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.992", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.7", "combined_over25_rate": "0.5", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.2", "ou15_history_support": "0.713", "ou25_history_support": "0.516", "ou35_history_support": "0.288", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.393", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.757", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.234", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.539", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.17", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.2", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.8", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.6", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.69", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.6612", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.58", "recommended_stake": "7", "rationale": "PICK — YORK vs ACCRINGTON: YORK to win @ 1.70\nOUTCOME MODEL GOALS — YORK 2.06 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | ACCRINGTON 0.93 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 2.99 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nWHY — Canonical 1X2 probabilities are HOME 63.3%, DRAW 20.4%, AWAY 16.2%. The selected outcome probability is 63.3%. YORK is the strongest side and agrees with the Home win likely outlook. Supporting checks: direction score +0.69, uncertainty 14.9%, draw risk 22.9%, direction evidence 83.4%; input grade C.\nPRICE — Model fair odds 1.58; recorded/synthetic odds 1.70; edge +4.50 percentage points; model EV +7.65%. The recorded price meets model break-even, but the live bookmaker price still requires verification.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-0, 1-0, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM YORK to win picks: 34/53 won (64%).\nRISK — HIGH. Main risk: YORK draws or loses.\nVERDICT — QUALIFIED ALTERNATIVE — YORK to win passed the 1X2 outcome profile. Verify the live bookmaker odds and keep it outside Main/high-stake tickets.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "policy_1x2_1x2_home_calibrated_profile", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.87", "data_completeness_score": "0.8652", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "1.0", "dom_live_index": "1.0", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "1.0", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.633", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.769", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.646", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3616", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.8", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_confidence": "0.95", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "10", "selection_regime_fit": "0.0", "selection_regime_ok": "0", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_soft_miss", "selection_value_boost": "0.07", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.8456", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.8386", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "2.0575", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "0.9349", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.9924", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "2.0575", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "0.9349", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.9924", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.2804", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.0489", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.3293", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2229", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.114", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.3369", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.872227", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.609334", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.607375", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.24031", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.799714", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.575105", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.351065", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.100/0.940);h2h_total_adj=1.018", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=1.01;history_piecewise_offset=+0.188", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 3, 4, 1, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 0, 3, 0]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 0, 0, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 4, 1, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 3, 4, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 0, 3, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 0, 0, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 4, 1, 2, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 3, 1, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 0, 1, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 3, 2, 1, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 3, 2, 2, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.4", "away_recent_goal_avg": "0.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "3.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "0.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.2", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.8", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "1.0", "max_scoring_spike_share": "1.0", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.8", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.2", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "goal_floor_score": "0.458", "goal_floor_status": "BLOCK", "goal_floor_hard_block": "1", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_60|SCORING_SPIKY_GE_65|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_45|ONE_SIDED_GOAL_DEPENDENCY|RECENT_HISTORY_SOURCE_CONFLICT", "second_goal_security": "0.363", "second_goal_route_count": "0", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.2", "home_2plus_route": "0.4", "away_2plus_route": "0.2", "btts_1plus_route": "0.346", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.4", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.87", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.55", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.91", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.55", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.72", "recent_history_source_conflict": "1", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.5", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.0", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.624", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.0", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.624", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.7", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.752", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.713", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.5", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.552", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.516", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "YORK", "away_team": "ACCRINGTON", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "api", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.362", "away_attack_ratio": "0.609", "home_defense_ratio": "1.255", "away_defense_ratio": "0.925", "home_form_ratio": "1.325", "away_form_ratio": "0.493", "home_defense_form_ratio": "0.753", "away_defense_form_ratio": "0.974", "home_momentum": "2.4", "away_momentum": "0.8", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.6", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.4", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.8", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "10.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.8", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.86", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "10.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.8", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.6", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.8111243971624382", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_btts_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "1.0", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "13.5", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "10", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "1.0", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.045", "xg_home_expected": "1.64", "xg_away_expected": "0.933", "xg_total_expected": "2.573", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "-0.003", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "0.0", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.708", "market_home_win_prob": "0.541", "market_draw_prob": "0.245", "market_away_win_prob": "0.214", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.469", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.811", "league_data_tier": "LOWER", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "api_fixture_team_kickoff_match", "verification_warning": "provider_is_api_football_not_sofascore", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.812", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.062", "away_goals_scored_avg": "0.812", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.438", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.4", "home_form_avg_conceded": "0.8", "away_form_avg_scored": "0.4", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.4", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.33", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.333", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "2.4", "home_recent_ga_avg": "0.8", "away_recent_gf_avg": "0.4", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.4", "home_scoring_std": "1.2", "away_scoring_std": "0.8", "home_conceding_std": "1.166", "away_conceding_std": "1.497", "match_goal_volatility": "1.166", "home_score_consistency": "0.314", "away_score_consistency": "0.543", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.6", "home_over25_rate": "0.8", "away_over25_rate": "0.2", "home_over35_rate": "0.6", "away_over35_rate": "0.2", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.0", "home_attack_trend": "0.588", "away_attack_trend": "-0.412", "home_defense_trend": "-0.262", "away_defense_trend": "-0.038", "home_defense_improvement": "0.262", "away_defense_improvement": "0.038", "attack_ratio_gap": "0.753", "defense_ratio_gap": "0.33", "form_attack_gap": "0.832", "form_defense_gap": "0.22", "historical_goal_balance": "0.688", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.543", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.245", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.212", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.477", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.0", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.007", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.553", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "", "h2h_direct_dates": "", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"Accrington ST 2-0 York\", \"Accrington ST 3-0 York\", \"York 1-5 Accrington ST\", \"Accrington ST 3-2 York\", \"Accrington ST 2-2 York\", \"York 1-0 Accrington ST\", \"York 1-1 Accrington ST\", \"Accrington ST 1-1 York\", \"York 1-1 Accrington ST\", \"Accrington ST 0-1 York\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "", "h2h_over_25_rate": "", "h2h_over_35_rate": "", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_last3_blank_rate": "1.0", "home_max_blank_streak": "0.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "4.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.2", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.812", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.062", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "0.812", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.438", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "2.312", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "0.438", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "0.812", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.438", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.0", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.288", "best_second_goal_route": "0.4", "second_best_goal_route": "0.346", "third_second_goal_route": "0.2", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "NONE", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "2.4", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.4", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.6", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "context_away_away_form_draws": "2.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "1.6", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "0.8", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-10-10", "context_away_away_form_losses": "3.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "0.8", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.4", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "0.4", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"D\", \"D\", \"L\", \"L\", \"L\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"0-0\", \"1-1\", \"1-2\", \"2-3\", \"0-2\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "5.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_wins": "0.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "2.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "1.0", "context_away_recent_events_json": "[{\"event_id\": \"16395967\", \"start_timestamp\": 1792245600, \"date\": \"2026-10-17\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 3, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 4, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Gillingham\", \"tournament\": \"League Two\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"25\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16395954\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791631800, \"date\": \"2026-10-10\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 0, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Oldham Athletic\", \"tournament\": \"League Two\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"25\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16801916\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791309600, \"date\": \"2026-10-06\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Salford City\", \"tournament\": \"EFL Trophy, Northern Group A\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"334\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16395929\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791036000, \"date\": \"2026-10-03\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 2, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Cheltenham Town\", \"tournament\": \"League Two\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"25\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16395917\", \"start_timestamp\": 1790431200, \"date\": \"2026-09-26\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Swindon Town\", \"tournament\": \"League Two\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"25\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16801921\", \"start_timestamp\": 1790100000, \"date\": \"2026-09-22\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 3, \"goals_against\": 3, \"total_goals\": 6, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Sunderland U21\", \"tournament\": \"EFL Trophy, Northern Group A\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"334\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16395877\", \"start_timestamp\": 1789826400, \"date\": \"2026-09-19\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 0, \"result\": \"D\", \"opponent\": \"Newport County\", \"tournament\": \"League Two\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"25\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16395853\", \"start_timestamp\": 1789221600, \"date\": \"2026-09-12\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Barnet\", \"tournament\": \"League Two\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"25\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16395829\", \"start_timestamp\": 1788616800, \"date\": \"2026-09-05\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 3, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 5, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Crawley Town\", \"tournament\": \"League Two\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"25\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16395803\", \"start_timestamp\": 1788288300, \"date\": \"2026-09-01\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 2, \"goals_against\": 2, 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"v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market", "ticket_use": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class": "WATCH", "same_match_ticket_warning": "", "ticket_use_in": "Track only", "secondary_track_reason": "", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "0", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "", "synthetic_curve_roi": "", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "", "synthetic_value_index": "", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.0", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "0", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_BIN_UNVALIDATED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", 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"main_acca_published_reference_bets": "0", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "0", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "market_not_in_calibrated_ticket_profile", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "WATCH", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "HIGH", "ticket_short_why": "Published for monitoring, but the prediction profile is not strong enough for a ticket", "ticket_use_audit": "previous_quality=WATCH; final_quality=WATCH; value=GOOD VALUE; market=1X2; selection=HOME; prob=0.633; conf=0.633; quant=nan; winner_quality=0.573; reliability=0.723; variance=0.362; hist_net=0.711; hist_risk=0.233; support=0.757; warnings=0/0/0; lose_risk=0; value_reason=value_audit_only(margin=0.045,ev=0.076,odds=1.70); main_eligible=0; main_reason=main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market; v61_quality_cap=NONE", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "0", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "1.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_1X2_CALIBRATED", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V66_CALIBRATED_1X2_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_1X2_CALIBRATED", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V66_CALIBRATED_1X2_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.516657", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.30207", "publication_rank_score": "0.456573", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "25", "publication_value_rank": "36", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "WATCH", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.727758", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "NO_MATURE_HIGH_WIN_PROFILE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "high_win_profile_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.516657", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Home (1X2) @ 1.70. | TICKET — live use WATCH; quality WATCH; risk HIGH; reliability role WATCH; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 63%; reliability score 52%; profile similarity 73/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — YORK 2.28 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 2.06), ACCRINGTON 1.05 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 0.93), match 3.33 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: YORK 1+ 90% / 2+ 66%; ACCRINGTON 1+ 65% / 2+ 28%. Match: 2+ 84%, 3+ 65%, 4+ 43%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD. No mature market-specific high-win reference applies. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 52% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — exact 1X2 HOME sample is not established; overall LEAGUE TWO CTM record is 1 settled picks at 100% (ROI +52.0%). | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 30%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — recent-history sources conflict. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / WATCH / GOOD VALUE.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED_1X2_OUTCOME_CONTRACT (PASSED_JOINT_1X2_CALIBRATION_DIRECTION_RISK_AND_ODDS_PROFILE); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=1X2_CALIBRATED_PUBLISHED (V66_JOINT_CALIBRATION_AND_RESULT_PROFILE_PASSED); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).\n1X2 CONTRACT: evaluated under the separate calibrated outcome contract; legacy input permission label=SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY. This selection is excluded from Main/high-stake tickets and requires live-odds verification.", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.3293", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.3293", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.0489", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0976853722503643", "v65_central_score": "2-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.2804", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0959857562635323", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0932015465511908", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "98", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-0, 1-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.276490518702579", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.2804", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.0489", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "WATCH", "ticket_use_internal": "WATCH", "performance_class_note": "", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "QUALIFIED", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V66_CALIBRATED_1X2_PROFILE" }, { "match_id": "c5662b6b9944ccc1", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "PORTADOWN vs CLIFTONVILLE", "league": "League Cup", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6217", "prediction_odds": "1.78", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5618", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.61", "prediction_edge_pct": "5.99", "prediction_ev": "0.1066", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.432233", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.432233", "draw_probability_raw": "0.243643", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.243643", "direction_gap": "0.108108", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.191879", "draw_risk_score": "0.504213", "draw_resistance_score": "0.266022", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.516482", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|weak_evidence_quality", "home_win_prob": "0.3241", "draw_prob": "0.2436", "away_win_prob": "0.4322", "home_odds": "2.8", "draw_odds": "3.55", "away_odds": "2.1", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.321871", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.232397", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.445732", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.324125", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.243643", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.432233", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.324125", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.243643", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.432233", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.4468", "expected_away_goals": "1.737", "expected_total_goals": "3.1838", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.4468", "away_goal_lambda": "1.737", "match_goal_lambda": "3.1838", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1041", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2353", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1761", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.1838", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.745", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.745", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.445544", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.458497", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.428,recent_scoring_conceding:0.500,form_momentum:0.444", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.29", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.186", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7647", "home_prob_2plus": "0.4242", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1779", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8239", "away_prob_2plus": "0.5181", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2526", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8267", "match_prob_3plus": "0.6167", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3939", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.1838", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8267", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.6167", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3939", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "-0.1542", "direction_abs_score": "0.1542", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.4942", "direction_gap_quality": "WEAK", "direction_market_edge": "-0.4505", "direction_team_edge": "-0.0036", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.2214", "direction_form_edge": "0.0545", "direction_defence_edge": "0.2258", "direction_agreement": "0.5", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.57397", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6301", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.723", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.2839", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.4956", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.4", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.4", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.6", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8866", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.833", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.4468", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.737", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.1838", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.2902", "losing_pick_risk_score": "14", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|low_control|high_blank_risk|home_hard_blank_warning|away_hard_blank_warning|home_weak_two_goal_floor|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.6167", "probability": "0.6217", "confidence_model": "0.4993", "performance_confidence": "0.6217", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.535", "confidence_gate": "0.6217", "model_conf_raw": "0.4993", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6217", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6217", "confidence": "0.6217", "market_performance_confidence": "0.056082", "market_performance_score": "5.61", "market_performance_score_base": "30.61", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.291429", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.46944", "confidence_safety_component": "0.349", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.520303", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "-27.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "-1.27", "confidence_total_modifier": "-25.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 29%; route 13%; environment 47%; safety 35%; probability 52%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "1.78", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5618", "edge_p": "0.0599", "edge_pct": "5.99", "ev": "0.1066", "quant_shape_score": "0.662814", "quant_ev": "0.106557", "quant_score": "0.446996", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.803", "historical_risk_score": "0.2", "historical_net_score": "0.713", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.499", "best_goal_market_support": "0.819", "market_history_support": "0.552", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.998", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.5", "combined_over35_rate": "0.3", "combined_btts_rate": "0.4", "ou15_history_support": "0.819", "ou25_history_support": "0.552", "ou35_history_support": "0.247", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.56", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.656", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.594", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.38", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.52", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.6", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.775", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.25", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "standings_missing|cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.61", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — PORTADOWN vs CLIFTONVILLE: Over 2.5 @ 1.78\nOUTLOOK — PORTADOWN 1.45 expected (about 1 goal; 1-2 plausible) | CLIFTONVILLE 1.74 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.18 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — CLIFTONVILLE is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.18 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.439", "data_completeness_score": "0.758", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.263", "dom_live_index": "0.263", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.184", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.775", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.828", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.799", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.5433", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.8", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.865", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "10", "selection_regime_fit": "0.875", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6388", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.1751", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.4623", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.3497", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.594", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.9437", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.3497", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.594", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.9437", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.4468", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.737", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.1838", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0971", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.143", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2401", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.740682", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.39068", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.796888", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.473129", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.792283", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.564079", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.340157", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.026/0.984);h2h_total_adj=1.022", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.29;history_piecewise_offset=+0.186", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 1, 1]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 3, 2, 1, 3]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 2, 0, 3]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 3, 2, 2, 4]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 3, 2, 1, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 0, 2, 0, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 3, 2, 2, 4]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "0.6", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "0.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.265", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.6", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.0", "goal_floor_score": "0.479", "goal_floor_status": "BLOCK", "goal_floor_hard_block": "1", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_60|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_45", "second_goal_security": "0.412", "second_goal_route_count": "0", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.4", "home_2plus_route": "0.0", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.49", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.51", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_agreement": "", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "", "away_gf_source_gap": "", "home_ga_source_gap": "", "away_ga_source_gap": "", "max_team_history_source_gap": "", "independent_evidence_count": "4", "independent_evidence_groups": "DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.875", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.819", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.5", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.675", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.552", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.3", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "PORTADOWN", "away_team": "CLIFTONVILLE", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "0.049", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "0.818", "away_attack_ratio": "0.866", "home_defense_ratio": "0.963", "away_defense_ratio": "0.917", "home_form_ratio": "0.533", "away_form_ratio": "0.8", "home_defense_form_ratio": "1.2", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.6", "home_momentum": "0.8", "away_momentum": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.0", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "sofascore_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.8", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "10.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.8", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.8646647167633873", "h2h_api_available": "0", "h2h_api_sample": "", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.0", "h2h_source_count": "1", "h2h_goals_agreement": "", "h2h_btts_agreement": "", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "10.0", "h2h_blend_method": "single_source", "h2h_trust_sample": "10", "h2h_trust_basis": "SINGLE_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.263", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.286", "xg_away_expected": "1.459", "xg_total_expected": "2.745", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "-0.013", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.173", "market_home_win_prob": "0.32", "market_draw_prob": "0.253", "market_away_win_prob": "0.427", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.525", "api_reliability": "0.049", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.738", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.125", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.5", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.25", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.5", "home_form_avg_scored": "0.6", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.8", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.0", "away_form_avg_conceded": "2.4", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.376", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.444", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "0.6", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.8", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.0", "away_recent_ga_avg": "2.4", "home_scoring_std": "0.49", "away_scoring_std": "1.265", "home_conceding_std": "1.166", "away_conceding_std": "1.02", "match_goal_volatility": "0.985", "home_score_consistency": "0.72", "away_score_consistency": "0.277", "home_over15_rate": "0.8", "away_over15_rate": "0.8", "home_over25_rate": "0.4", "away_over25_rate": "0.6", "home_over35_rate": "0.2", "away_over35_rate": "0.4", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.4", "home_attack_trend": "-0.525", "away_attack_trend": "-0.25", "home_defense_trend": "0.3", "away_defense_trend": "0.9", "home_defense_improvement": "-0.3", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.9", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.048", "defense_ratio_gap": "0.045", "form_attack_gap": "-0.267", "form_defense_gap": "0.4", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.062", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.32", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.252", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.429", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.526", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.002", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.0", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.46", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-2 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 1-2 | 2-0 | 2-2 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 0-2", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-10-17 | 2026-09-05 | 2026-03-04 | 2025-11-29 | 2025-09-27 | 2025-04-19 | 2025-02-09 | 2024-12-14 | 2024-08-11 | 2024-03-01", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"1-2\", \"3-1\", \"0-2\", \"2-3\", \"1-2\", \"2-0\", \"2-2\", \"2-0\", \"1-0\", \"0-2\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-10-17\", \"2026-09-05\", \"2026-03-04\", \"2025-11-29\", \"2025-09-27\", \"2025-04-19\", \"2025-02-09\", \"2024-12-14\", \"2024-08-11\", \"2024-03-01\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"1-2\", \"3-1\", \"0-2\", \"2-3\", \"1-2\", \"2-0\", \"2-2\", \"2-0\", \"1-0\", \"0-2\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "0.9", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.5", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.3", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.667", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.667", "home_max_blank_streak": "2.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "2.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.265", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.125", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.5", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "1.25", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.5", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.112", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.247", "best_second_goal_route": "0.49", "second_best_goal_route": "0.4", "third_second_goal_route": "0.0", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "10.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "1.8", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.8", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_draws": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "1.2", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "0.6", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-10-10", "context_away_away_form_losses": "4.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.6", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.6", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "0.4", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "0.6", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"L\", \"L\", \"L\", \"W\", \"L\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"0-1\", \"0-1\", \"0-2\", \"3-1\", \"0-1\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "5.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "context_away_away_form_wins": "1.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "3.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "2.0", "context_away_recent_events_json": "[{\"event_id\": \"16396781\", \"start_timestamp\": 1792256400, \"date\": \"2026-10-17\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Portadown FC\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"17324112\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791917100, \"date\": \"2026-10-13\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 1, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Glentoran\", \"tournament\": \"Co Antrim Shield\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"37352\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16396772\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791640800, \"date\": \"2026-10-10\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 1, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Coleraine FC\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16396768\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791036000, \"date\": \"2026-10-03\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 1, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Ballymena United\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16396765\", \"start_timestamp\": 1790431200, \"date\": \"2026-09-26\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 1, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Limavady United\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16396756\", \"start_timestamp\": 1789826400, \"date\": \"2026-09-19\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Glentoran\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16396751\", \"start_timestamp\": 1789497900, \"date\": \"2026-09-15\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 0, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 2, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Larne FC\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16396742\", \"start_timestamp\": 1789221600, \"date\": \"2026-09-12\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 3, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 4, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Carrick Rangers\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16396737\", \"start_timestamp\": 1788616800, \"date\": \"2026-09-05\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 3, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 4, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Portadown FC\", \"tournament\": \"Premiership\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"200\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16974346\", \"start_timestamp\": 1788288300, \"date\": \"2026-09-01\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 4, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 4, \"result\": 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"FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "36", "publication_value_rank": "30", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.056082", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.291329", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 1.78. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 62%; reliability score 29%; profile similarity 6/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — PORTADOWN 1.45 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.35), CLIFTONVILLE 1.74 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.59), match 3.18 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: PORTADOWN 1+ 76% / 2+ 42%; CLIFTONVILLE 1+ 82% / 2+ 52%. Match: 2+ 83%, 3+ 62%, 4+ 39%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — CLIFTONVILLE leans AWAY, but direction is NOT CONFIRMED (LEAN); PORTADOWN 2+ 42% vs CLIFTONVILLE 2+ 52%; gap 9pp. Do not infer a TG1.5 selection from this O2.5 total. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor BLOCK; second-goal security 41%; recent O2.5 support 50%; third-goal route 40% (NOT_SELECTED_LINE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 29% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — no settled CTM league-market record is available yet for League Cup. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 37%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 60% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=317, win rate 68%, synthetic ROI 16%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED|OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED|OU25_DIRECT_THREE_GOAL_HISTORY_WEAK|OU25_SECOND_GOAL_FLOOR_NOT_CLEAN); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.1838", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.1838", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.737", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1041121816323172", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.4468", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0194427073974243", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.004095589997005", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "228", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 2-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2698483635728031", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.4468", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.737", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "49b04ff2d9156fa2", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "ROCHDALE vs GRIMSBY", "league": "LEAGUE TWO", "market": "BTTS", "selection": "Yes", "prediction_label": "BTTS Yes", "prediction_market": "BTTS", "prediction_selection": "YES", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "BOTH TEAMS", "prediction_probability": "0.619", "prediction_odds": "1.97", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.5076", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.62", "prediction_edge_pct": "11.14", "prediction_ev": "0.2195", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "btts_yes_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away lean", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away lean", "match_outlook_strength": "lean", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.432666", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.432666", "draw_probability_raw": "0.253039", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.253039", "direction_gap": "0.118371", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.289201", "draw_risk_score": "0.476663", "draw_resistance_score": "0.447571", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.338097", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance", "home_win_prob": "0.3143", "draw_prob": "0.253", "away_win_prob": "0.4327", "home_odds": "3.15", "draw_odds": "3.3", "away_odds": "2.05", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.308934", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.241169", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.449898", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.314295", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.253039", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.432666", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.314295", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.253039", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.432666", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.3231", "expected_away_goals": "1.6433", "expected_total_goals": "2.9664", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "2", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.3231", "away_goal_lambda": "1.6433", "match_goal_lambda": "2.9664", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "1-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1119", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "2", "match_goal_range_low": "1", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2663", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1933", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "2.9665", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.676", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.675", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.405558", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.452779", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.394,recent_scoring_conceding:0.429,form_momentum:0.423", "lambda_direction_resolution": "dampened_medium_gap:0.46", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.172", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7337", "home_prob_2plus": "0.3814", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1483", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8067", "away_prob_2plus": "0.4889", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2279", "match_prob_2plus": "0.7958", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5692", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3453", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "2.9664", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.7958", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5692", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3453", "ou25_probability_band": "qualified", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.6009", "direction_abs_score": "0.6009", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9794", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.6035", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8338", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.5125", "direction_form_edge": "-0.1951", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.7867", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.83301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5919", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6948", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.1867", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "1", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.7951", "btts_tg_rescue": "1", "btts_profile_ok": "1", "btts_history_ok": "1", "btts_strong_history_override": "1", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.9", "btts_scoring_floor": "1.0", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.0", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8176", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.8051", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.3231", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.6433", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "2.9664", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "Supported by xG: both teams carry scoring threat (home 1.32, away 1.64, total 2.97).", "xg_support_score": "0.9703", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.3202", "losing_pick_risk_score": "0", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "clean", "probability_raw": "0.5919", "probability": "0.619", "confidence_model": "0.6002", "performance_confidence": "0.619", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.5618", "confidence_gate": "0.619", "model_conf_raw": "0.6002", "perf_conf_raw": "0.619", "gate_conf_raw": "0.619", "confidence": "0.619", "market_performance_confidence": "0.920579", "market_performance_score": "92.06", "market_performance_score_base": "92.06", "market_confidence_band": "ELITE", "market_confidence_method": "BTTS_HISTORY_DUAL_ROUTE_BLANK_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.75", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "1", "confidence_history_component": "1.0", "confidence_route_component": "0.928571", "confidence_environment_component": "0.776009", "confidence_safety_component": "1.0", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.512121", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "8.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_total_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_component_summary": "history 100%; route 93%; environment 78%; safety 100%; probability 51%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "1.97", "odds_expected_col": "btts_yes_odds", "implied_prob": "0.5076", "edge_p": "0.1114", "edge_pct": "11.14", "ev": "0.2195", "quant_shape_score": "0.723282", "quant_ev": "0.219493", "quant_score": "0.75386", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.832", "historical_risk_score": "0.189", "historical_net_score": "0.747", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.594", "best_goal_market_support": "0.956", "market_history_support": "0.866", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.99", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "1.0", "combined_over25_rate": "0.9", "combined_over35_rate": "0.6", "combined_btts_rate": "0.9", "ou15_history_support": "0.956", "ou25_history_support": "0.818", "ou35_history_support": "0.448", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.866", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.68", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.9", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.567", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.767", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "1.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3875", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.62", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — ROCHDALE vs GRIMSBY: BTTS Yes @ 1.97\nOUTLOOK — ROCHDALE 1.32 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | GRIMSBY 1.64 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 2.97 expected (about 3 goals; 1-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — GRIMSBY is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (lean directional confidence).\nWHY — ROCHDALE is expected to score about 1 goal (1.32 average; 0-2 plausible). GRIMSBY is expected to score about 2 goals (1.64 average; 1-2 plausible). This pick needs both teams to score.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-1, 1-2, 2-1.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM BTTS Yes picks: 88/134 won (66%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: one of the teams fails to score.\nVERDICT — BET — BTTS Yes is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "aug06_btts_resolved_profile|final_btts_strong_history_override|final_btts_strong_history_override|final_btts_strong_history_override", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8532", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.352", "dom_live_index": "0.352", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.394", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.631", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.577", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.595", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3076", "h2h_goals_avg": "1.579", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.0", "h2h_confidence": "0.565", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "4", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.72", "raw_expected_home_goals": "0.9966", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.4607", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.2447", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.5043", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.749", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.2447", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.5043", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.749", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.3231", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.6433", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "2.9664", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0784", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.139", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2175", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.711973", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.353465", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.777827", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.443613", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.760095", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.518302", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.296738", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.035/0.979);h2h_total_adj=0.955", "lambda_correction_reason": "dampened_medium_gap:0.46;history_piecewise_offset=+0.172", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 2, 2, 2]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 2, 1, 4]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 1, 4, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 2, 1, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 3, 2, 2, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 2, 2, 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"goal_source_router_away_score": "0.800113", "goal_source_router_independent_gap": "-0.193725", "goal_source_router_lambda_gap": "-0.1075", "goal_source_router_home_history_2plus": "0.73", "goal_source_router_away_history_2plus": "0.8", "goal_source_router_home_recent_route": "0.76", "goal_source_router_away_recent_route": "0.8", "goal_source_router_home_1plus_route": "0.8", "goal_source_router_away_1plus_route": "1.0", "goal_source_router_btts_balance": "0.8051", "goal_source_router_home_clean_sheet": "0.0", "goal_source_router_away_clean_sheet": "0.2", "goal_source_router_home_dual_pass": "1", "goal_source_router_away_dual_pass": "1", "goal_source_router_both_pass": "0", "goal_source_router_both_p2_product": "0.186466", "goal_source_router_evidence_agree": "1", "goal_source_router_evidence_oppose": "0", "goal_source_router_mapping_trusted": "1", "goal_source_router_source_conflict": "0", "goal_source_router_contradiction": "0", "goal_source_router_reason": "LAMBDA_WITH_INDEPENDENT_CONFIRMATION", "goal_source_router_direction_score": "-0.6009", "goal_source_router_total_xg": "2.9664", "goal_source_router_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "goal_supplier_stage": "final_directional_cleanup", "goal_supplier_terminal_pass": "1", "zero_zero_contract_pass": "1", "zero_zero_contract_status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "zero_zero_contract_reason": "PASS", "zero_zero_floor_override_used": "0", "zero_zero_floor_override_reason": "", "zero_zero_collapse_risk_score": "0.0348", "zero_zero_resistance_used": "1.0", "zero_zero_weak_side_blank_used": "0.0", "zero_zero_selected_side_route": "", "zero_zero_selected_side_blank": "", "zero_zero_source_conflict": "0", "zero_zero_independent_evidence_count": "5", "zero_zero_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "one_goal_lock_contract_pass": "1", "one_goal_lock_contract_status": "NOT_APPLICABLE", "one_goal_lock_contract_reason": "PASS", "one_goal_lock_soft_warning": "", "one_goal_lock_risk_score": "0.0869", "one_goal_lock_home_attack_suppressed": "0", "one_goal_lock_away_attack_suppressed": "0", "one_goal_lock_independent_count": "5", "one_goal_lock_second_goal_security": "0.815", "one_goal_lock_one_sided_third_route": "0.4", "one_goal_lock_selected_attack2": "", "one_goal_lock_selected_spike_share": "", "one_goal_lock_opponent_concede2": "", "one_goal_lock_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "profile_score": "0.920579", "profile_score_pct": "92.06", "profile_score_band": "ELITE", "profile_score_method": "settled_history_prematch_similarity_v50", "market_confidence_stage": "display_sync", "confidence_relative": "0.619", "confidence_base_used": "outcome_probability_v58_v57_contract", "confidence_meaning": "estimated_probability_of_selected_outcome", "profile_score_meaning": "historical_prematch_profile_similarity_not_probability", "publish_policy": "1", "publish_reason_policy": "policy_failed_c_btts_yes_not_enough_support", "conf_score": "0.619", "prob_score": "0.619", "edge_score": "0.2", "comp_score": "0.8532", "ctrl_score": "0.394", "tempo_score": "0.631", "rel_score": "0.867", "robustness_score": "0.5511384045024", "variance_score": "0.307578", "score": "0.531918", "home_xg_rank": "1.3231", "away_xg_rank": "1.6433", "total_xg_rank": "2.9664", "home_xg_support": "0.66155", "away_xg_support": "0.82165", "total_xg_support": "0.8475428571428572", "market_xg_support": "0.7627885714285715", "market_family_bonus": "0.0", "selection_score": "0.700848", "evidence_model": "BTTS_YES", "evidence_probability": "0.6073774385053206", "evidence_model_probability": "0.589503355059172", "evidence_model_auc": "0.5250620907654098", "evidence_model_brier": "0.2554165761398304", "evidence_model_samples": "1579", "evidence_model_reliability": "0.5422887750262196", "evidence_model_shadow_reliability": "0.5422887750262196", "evidence_model_live_eligible": "1", "evidence_model_history_span_days": "31.385416666666668", "evidence_model_unique_history_days": "27", "evidence_model_wf_auc_median": "0.5250620907654098", "evidence_model_wf_auc_recent": "0.5137728606909009", "evidence_model_brier_gain": "-0.0088296279089242", "evidence_market_win_rate": "0.5446485117162762", "evidence_percentile": "0.6705882352941176", "evidence_rank_score": "0.5258706332264528", "sofa_context_model": "BTTS_YES", "sofa_context_model_version": "sofascore_context_market_v1_chronological_roi_gate", "sofa_context_model_status": "SHADOW_ONLY_SAMPLE_TOO_SMALL", "sofa_context_model_probability": "", "sofa_context_model_samples": "90", "sofa_context_model_days": "7", "sofa_context_model_auc": "", "sofa_context_model_recent_auc": "", "sofa_context_model_brier_gain": "", "sofa_context_model_value_n": "0", "sofa_context_model_value_roi": "", "sofa_context_live_applied": "0", "sofa_context_model_live_eligible": "0", "sofa_context_valid_prematch_stats": "0", "sofa_context_valid_prematch_standings": "0", "sofa_context_valid_prematch_context": "0", "sofa_context_player_signal_role": "OBSERVATION_ONLY_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE_OR_STARTING_XI", "force_keep": "0", "composite_score": "0.7388109999999999", "market_profile_passed": "0", "market_profile_reason": "profile_btts_h2h_contradiction(0.00)", "market_profile_name": "BTTS_CORE_V1", "evidence_promoted": "0", "evidence_promotion_reason": "", "prune_value_score": "0.513942", "settled_profile_released": "0", "settled_profile_release_reason": "", "validated_combo_passed": "1", "validated_combo_name": "BTTS_HOME_LAMBDA_TEMPO_HOME_XG_TWO_SIDED", "validated_combo_warning": "", "winner_profile_score": "3", "winner_profile_level": "BTTS_EXPERIMENTAL", "loser_risk_level": "LOW", "profile_signals_passed": "BTTS_HOME_LAMBDA_TEMPO_HOME_XG_TWO_SIDED", "profile_signals_failed": "DATA_GRADE_C|NO_LEAGUE_HISTORY|SMALL_LEAGUE_SAMPLE", "profile_market": "BTTS_YES", "profile_sample_size": "43", "chronological_validation_rate": "0.698", "publication_band": "SECONDARY_TRACK", "secondary_track_only": "1", "main_ticket_selected": "0", "highest_stake": "0", "value_classification": "POSITIVE_VALUE", "effective_model_ev": "0.21943", "terminal_policy_failure": "", "v35_calibrated_direct_ou25": "", "high_goal_ceiling_score": "0.659", "high_goal_ceiling_flag": "1", "promotion_evaluated": "1", "promotion_eligible": "0", "promotion_score": "0.525871", "promotion_rank": "0", "promotion_reject_reason": "not_eligible_for_promotion", "line_selected": "1", "line_not_selected_reason": "", "ou25_line_upgrade_ready": "0", "aug06_market_rule": "aug06_btts_resolved_profile", "aug06_market_pass": "1", "aug06_stage": "after_all_promotions", "ou15_recent_value_signal": "0", "ou15_recent_value_reason": "", "minutes_to_kickoff": "1002.04", "live_publication_eligible": "1", "live_publication_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "football_qualification_pass": "1", "football_qualification_status": "QUALIFIED", "football_qualification_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_pass": "1", "v61_operating_contract_status": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_market_role": "TWO_SIDED_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE", "v61_operating_direct_rate": "0.8", "v61_operating_probability": "0.619", "v61_operating_source_conflict_caution": "0", "real_odds_verification_required": "1", "min_acceptable_real_odds": "1.5", "max_acceptable_real_odds": "2.3", "display_minimum_real_odds": "1.5", "display_maximum_real_odds": "2.3", "synthetic_price_display_pass": "1", "synthetic_price_execution_pass": "1", "executable_publication_pass": "1", "executable_publication_status": "EXECUTABLE", "executable_publication_reason": "PASS", "execution_price_role": "EXECUTION_BAND", "market_validation_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_TWO_SIDED_VALUE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_VALIDATED", "market_probability_status": "MODEL_ESTIMATE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_CALIBRATED", "secondary_value_eligible": "1", "legacy_gate_override_used": "0", "legacy_gate_override_reason": "V63_SEPARATE_TWO_SIDED_OR_CONFIRMED_SUPPLIER_AUTHORITY", "v61_operating_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_perf_wr_long": "0.656716", "v64_perf_roi_long": "0.23291", "v64_market_performance_score": "0.68579", "v64_perf_n_60d": "134", "v64_perf_n_long": "134", "v64_perf_roi_21d": "0.264074", "v64_perf_roi_7d": "0.249048", "v64_market_performance_status": "CHRONOLOGICAL_PREMATCH_ROLLING", "v64_perf_roi_60d": "0.23291", "v64_perf_n_21d": "81", "v64_perf_wr_60d": "0.656716", "v64_perf_wr_21d": "0.666667", "v64_perf_wr_7d": "0.666667", "v64_perf_n_7d": "42", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling": "", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling_reason": "", "v64_adaptive_execution_pass": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_provisional": "", "ou25_evidence_expansion_maturity": "", "v64_market_expression_score": "0.72822", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "1.0", "btts_context_ok": "1.0", "quant_score_f": "0.75386", "quant_ev_f": "0.219493", "quant_shape_f": "0.723282", "quant_ev_norm": "0.912837142857143", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.492386", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "1", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_QUALIFIED_BTTS_SYNTHETIC_CURVE", "settled_value_profile_pass": "1.0", "settled_value_profile_reason": "HISTORY_BTTS_SELECTIVE_VALUE", "publication_role": "SELECTIVE_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE", "weak_three_goal_route": "", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "0.0", "safer_market_available": "OU OVER 1.5", "published_market_role": "SECONDARY_BTTS_VALUE_ONLY", "market_portfolio_value_index": "0.492386", "market_portfolio_score": "0.705425", "prob": "0.619", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.8337", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.971", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.466", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.7378", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.8997", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.7378", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.1421", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "1.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.3325", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half estimate is unvalidated and is not used to promote this full-time pick.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "MARKET_CONFIDENCE_VALUE", "terminal_approved_route": "1.0", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "SECONDARY_BTTS_VALUE_ONLY", "portfolio_selection_status": "SECONDARY_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE", "portfolio_selection_reason": "SECONDARY_MARKET_CONTRACT_PASSED", "v61_market_expression_decision": "SECONDARY_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "0", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "1.0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "history_value_final", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_pass": "1.0", "current_performance_contract_status": "PASS", "current_performance_contract_reason": "PASS", "current_performance_market_role": "QUALIFIED_TWO_SIDED_VALUE", "current_performance_probability_used": "0.619", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "0.920579", "current_performance_odds_used": "1.97", "current_performance_value_index_used": "0.492386", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "0.9826", "current_performance_value_score": "0.775648", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "0.8", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "0.0", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "0.0", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "0.0348", "current_performance_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_executable_alternative": "0", "preferred_market": "", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "", "recommended_market": "", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "BTTS YES", "v657_goal_router_role": "BALANCED_BTTS_EXPRESSION", "league_history_bets": "1.0", "league_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_history_roi": "0.52", "league_history_guard": "ok", "league_history_label": "SMALL_SAMPLE", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "", "v657_recovery_type": "", "v657_recovery_provisional": "", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:EXPLICIT_SECONDARY_TRACK_POLICY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_blocked_support_only", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Separate secondary ticket only; one selection per fixture; never a main/highest-stake anchor.", "ticket_use_in": "Use after Main High-Win anchors in 4/6/9-leg tickets", "secondary_track_reason": "EXPLICIT_SECONDARY_TRACK_POLICY", "score_value_publication_role": "SELECTIVE_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "809", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.625464", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5915920603305156", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.184178", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.5203955555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.4923857868020305", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.6625162346869713", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "1", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "1.0", "synthetic_frontier_role": "RECOMMENDED_HIGH_VALUE", "value_ticket_selected": "1", "value_ticket_role": "VALUE_TICKET_SELECTED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "0.801897", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "1.0", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.06", "away_blank_risk": "0.0", "max_blank_risk": "0.06", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.8051", "balanced_goal_path": "1", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "1", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "1.0", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.8", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.2", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.4", "home_hard_blank_warning": "0", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "0", "p_total_le1": "0.2042", "p_total_le2": "0.4308", "p_exactly2": "0.2265", "winner_quality_score": "0.7606", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.7754", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.8265", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.9835", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.7685", "winner_consistency_score": "0.5353", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8955", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.752", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.730732", "soft_warning_count": "0", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "none", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.74968", "winning_chance_score": "0.732862", "value_opportunity_score": "0.761969", "winning_chance_rank": "1", "value_opportunity_rank": "6", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "BTTS_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "2", "main_acca_reference_bets": "85", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.6823529412", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "0", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "27", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.7037037037", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "1", "ticket_support_reason": "ticket_support_calibrated:BTTS_STRONG_SUPPORT|tier=STRONG_SUPPORT|ref_n=85|ref_wr=0.6824|version=MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:EXPLICIT_SECONDARY_TRACK_POLICY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_ALL_RESTORES_AND_V65_6_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_STANDARD_V65_7_FINAL_AUTHORITY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.756271", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.676749", "publication_rank_score": "0.734005", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "3", "publication_value_rank": "1", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "BEST VALUE EXPRESSION", "profile_similarity_score": "0.920579", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "BTTS_NO_MATURE_HIGH_WIN_REFERENCE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "0.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "high_win_profile_reason": "BTTS remains a qualified/value market, but the supplied history does not justify a mature high-win label yet.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.756271", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Both teams to score — Yes @ 1.97. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 62%; reliability score 76%; profile similarity 92/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — ROCHDALE 1.32 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.24), GRIMSBY 1.64 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.50), match 2.97 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: ROCHDALE 1+ 73% / 2+ 38%; GRIMSBY 1+ 81% / 2+ 49%. Match: 2+ 80%, 3+ 57%, 4+ 35%; central goal band 1-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (11%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL ROUTES — ROCHDALE 1+ 73% and GRIMSBY 1+ 81%; BTTS requires both scoring routes rather than one dominant supplier. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor STRONG; direct BTTS support 80%; both sides must retain independent 1+ routes. | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD. BTTS remains a qualified/value market, but the supplied history does not justify a mature high-win label yet. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 76% (STRONG). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — exact BTTS YES sample is not established; overall LEAGUE TWO CTM record is 1 settled picks at 100% (ROI +52.0%). | VALUE — BEST VALUE EXPRESSION; relative value score 68%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — no major market-specific warning; normal football variance remains. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / BEST VALUE EXPRESSION. Evidence-value score 78%, historical profile 92%, price-value index 49%. Value frontier: Recommended High Value; settled synthetic-price curve n=809, win rate 63%, synthetic ROI 18%; selected for the value ticket. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=SECONDARY_VALUE_ALTERNATIVE (SECONDARY_MARKET_CONTRACT_PASSED); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).\nMARKET VALIDATION: RETROSPECTIVE_TWO_SIDED_VALUE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_VALIDATED; ticket-executable=1; secondary-value-eligible=1. Model confidence is an estimate, not a prospectively verified win rate. Verify actual bookmaker odds; synthetic ROI is not proven bookmaker profit.", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "2.9664", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "2.9664", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.6433", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1119485244201396", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.3231", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "0.0025027323549964", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0107684765897973", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "246", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2885418105696855", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.3231", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.6433", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "ELITE", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_CONFIDENCE_PASS", "market_confidence_final_reason": "" }, { "match_id": "1582d4d79dbd060b", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "KETTERING vs LEISTON", "league": "Southern Football League,premier Division Central", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6183", "prediction_odds": "2.26", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4425", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.62", "prediction_edge_pct": "17.58", "prediction_ev": "0.3973", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.556817", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.556817", "draw_probability_raw": "0.230756", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.230756", "direction_gap": "0.326061", "outlook_direction_score": "0.470388", "draw_risk_score": "0.262511", "draw_resistance_score": "0.790008", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.207891", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.5568", "draw_prob": "0.2308", "away_win_prob": "0.2124", "home_odds": "1.75", "draw_odds": "3.4", "away_odds": "4.0", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.568619", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.216531", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.21485", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.556817", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.230756", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.212427", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.556817", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.230756", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.212427", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.9775", "expected_away_goals": "1.1373", "expected_total_goals": "3.1148", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.9775", "away_goal_lambda": "1.1373", "match_goal_lambda": "3.1148", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-5 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0998", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "5", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1384", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.3207", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.1148", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.437", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.437", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "-0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.638433", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.638433", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.696,recent_scoring_conceding:0.602,form_momentum:0.712", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.70", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.182", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8616", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5879", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3172", "away_prob_1plus": "0.6793", "away_prob_2plus": "0.3146", "away_prob_3plus": "0.1072", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8174", "match_prob_3plus": "0.602", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3785", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.1148", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8174", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.602", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3785", "ou25_probability_band": "strong", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "1", "direction_score": "0.6368", "direction_abs_score": "0.6368", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.9794", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.8642", "direction_team_edge": "0.4695", "direction_xg_edge": "0.4573", "direction_form_edge": "0.7059", "direction_defence_edge": "0.668", "direction_agreement": "1.0", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.83301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5853", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7054", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.2221", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6293", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.7", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.7531", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.5751", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.9775", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.1373", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.1148", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.8402", "losing_pick_risk_score": "6", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "home_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.602", "probability": "0.6183", "confidence_model": "0.6391", "performance_confidence": "0.6183", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.5598", "confidence_gate": "0.6183", "model_conf_raw": "0.6391", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6183", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6183", "confidence": "0.6183", "market_performance_confidence": "0.621551", "market_performance_score": "62.16", "market_performance_score_base": "62.58", "market_confidence_band": "WATCH", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.502857", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.726405", "confidence_safety_component": "0.703476", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.51", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.57", "confidence_total_modifier": "-0.43", "confidence_component_summary": "history 50%; route 62%; environment 73%; safety 70%; probability 51%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "B", "odds": "2.26", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4425", "edge_p": "0.1758", "edge_pct": "17.58", "ev": "0.3973", "quant_shape_score": "0.669294", "quant_ev": "0.397292", "quant_score": "0.713647", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.812", "historical_risk_score": "0.22", "historical_net_score": "0.714", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.36", "best_goal_market_support": "0.764", "market_history_support": "0.626", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.99", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.7", "combined_over35_rate": "0.5", "combined_btts_rate": "0.7", "ou15_history_support": "0.764", "ou25_history_support": "0.626", "ou35_history_support": "0.36", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.689", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.615", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.687", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.554", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.348", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.4562", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.62", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — KETTERING vs LEISTON: Over 2.5 @ 2.26\nOUTLOOK — KETTERING 1.98 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | LEISTON 1.14 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.11 expected (about 3 goals; 2-5 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — KETTERING is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (elite directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.11 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals. The evidence supports the third goal needed for Over 2.5.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-1, 3-0.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8596", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.787", "dom_live_index": "0.787", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.725", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.441", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.558", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.45", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.2908", "h2h_goals_avg": "3.278", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.548", "h2h_confidence": "0.842", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "6", "selection_regime_fit": "0.8611", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6387", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6078", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.9105", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.8003", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.0196", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.8199", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.8003", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.0196", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.8199", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.9775", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.1373", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.1148", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1772", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1177", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2949", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.834751", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.537252", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.639261", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.271451", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.772288", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.535276", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.312493", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.079/0.953);h2h_total_adj=1.067", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.70;history_piecewise_offset=+0.182", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 0, 5, 2, 0]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 2, 1, 2]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 2, 1, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 3, 1, 0, 2]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 0, 5, 2, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 0, 2, 1, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 2, 1, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 3, 1, 0, 2]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 1, 1, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 0, 3, 0, 0]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 3, 4, 1, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 1, 2, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.897", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.49", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.286", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.5", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.695", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", 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"market_profile_reason": "profile_ou25_core_value_ok(goal_price_informational_only)", "market_profile_name": "OU25_CORE_V1", "evidence_promoted": "0", "evidence_promotion_reason": "", "prune_value_score": "0.54753", "settled_profile_released": "0", "settled_profile_release_reason": "", "validated_combo_passed": "0", "validated_combo_name": "", "validated_combo_warning": "", "winner_profile_score": "0", "winner_profile_level": "NO_BET", "loser_risk_level": "HIGH_LOSS_RISK", "profile_signals_passed": "", "profile_signals_failed": "OU25_NEGATIVE_LEAGUE_HISTORY|DATA_GRADE_C|NO_LEAGUE_HISTORY|LOW_SCORING_CONSISTENCY|HOME_HARD_BLANK_WARNING", "profile_market": "", "profile_sample_size": "0", "chronological_validation_rate": "", "publication_band": "", "secondary_track_only": "1", "main_ticket_selected": "0", "highest_stake": "0", "value_classification": "POSITIVE_VALUE", "effective_model_ev": "0.397358", "terminal_policy_failure": "", "v35_calibrated_direct_ou25": "1.0", "high_goal_ceiling_score": "0.619", "high_goal_ceiling_flag": "1", "promotion_evaluated": "1", "promotion_eligible": "1", "promotion_score": "0.527325", "promotion_rank": "2", "promotion_reject_reason": "", "line_selected": "0", "line_not_selected_reason": "not_finally_selected", "ou25_line_upgrade_ready": "1", "aug06_market_rule": "aug06_ou25_restored_release", "aug06_market_pass": "1", "aug06_stage": "after_all_promotions", "ou15_recent_value_signal": "0", "ou15_recent_value_reason": "", "minutes_to_kickoff": "1002.04", "live_publication_eligible": "1", "live_publication_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "football_qualification_pass": "1", "football_qualification_status": "QUALIFIED", "football_qualification_reason": "PASS", "v61_operating_contract_pass": "1", "v61_operating_contract_status": "PASS_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION", "v61_operating_contract_reason": "PASS_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION", "v61_operating_market_role": "THIRD_GOAL_VALUE", "v61_operating_direct_rate": "0.7", "v61_operating_probability": "0.6183", "v61_operating_source_conflict_caution": "0", "real_odds_verification_required": "1", "min_acceptable_real_odds": "1.6", "max_acceptable_real_odds": "2.14", "display_minimum_real_odds": "1.6", "display_maximum_real_odds": "2.29", "synthetic_price_display_pass": "1", "synthetic_price_execution_pass": "1", "executable_publication_pass": "1", "executable_publication_status": "EXECUTABLE", "executable_publication_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION", "execution_price_role": "V65_3_EVIDENCE_EXECUTION_BAND", "market_validation_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OU_RULE", "market_probability_status": "MODEL_ESTIMATE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_CALIBRATED", "secondary_value_eligible": "1", "legacy_gate_override_used": "0", "legacy_gate_override_reason": "", "v61_operating_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_perf_wr_long": "0.670886", "v64_perf_roi_long": "0.304599", "v64_market_performance_score": "0.703916", "v64_perf_n_60d": "237", "v64_perf_n_long": "237", "v64_perf_roi_21d": "0.277417", "v64_perf_roi_7d": "0.294933", "v64_market_performance_status": "CHRONOLOGICAL_PREMATCH_ROLLING", "v64_perf_roi_60d": "0.304599", "v64_perf_n_21d": "151", "v64_perf_wr_60d": "0.670886", "v64_perf_wr_21d": "0.662252", "v64_perf_wr_7d": "0.68", "v64_perf_n_7d": "75", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling": "2.14", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling_reason": "STRONG_OU25_ROLLING_AND_P3_EVIDENCE", "v64_adaptive_execution_pass": "1.0", "ou25_evidence_expansion_provisional": "0.0", "ou25_evidence_expansion_maturity": "MATURE_EVIDENCE", "v64_market_expression_score": "0.692563", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "", "btts_context_ok": "", "quant_score_f": "", "quant_ev_f": "", "quant_shape_f": "", "quant_ev_norm": "", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.557522", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "0", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_VALUE_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_MARKET_MIN", "settled_value_profile_pass": "", "settled_value_profile_reason": "", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "0.0", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "V61_THIRD_GOAL_AUTHORITY", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "", "safer_market_available": "", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_VALUE", "market_portfolio_value_index": "", "market_portfolio_score": "", "prob": "0.6183", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.6724", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.8255", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.5976", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.3829", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.7451", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.5976", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.1639", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.0", "h2h_low_total_sample": "5.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.3453", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half estimate is unvalidated and is not used to promote this full-time pick.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "", "terminal_approved_route": "", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "OU25_PROVISIONAL_HIGH_GOAL_ALTERNATIVE", "portfolio_selection_status": "PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN", "v61_market_expression_decision": "PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "0", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "13.0", "league_history_win_rate": "0.4615", "league_history_roi": "-0.3562", "league_history_guard": "watch", "league_history_label": "BELOW_50_WARNING", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Separate/secondary ticket only", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "651", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.560676", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5223050089646274", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.322949", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.8287755555555555", "synthetic_value_index": "0.5575221238938053", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.6577768852507374", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.34", "away_blank_risk": "0.06", "max_blank_risk": "0.34", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.5751", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.4", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.0", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.4", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.1826", "p_total_le2": "0.398", "p_exactly2": "0.2153", "winner_quality_score": "0.5673", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5834", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.7783", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.633", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.2805", "winner_consistency_score": "0.306", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8147", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.6941", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.722871", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "0", "soft_warning_reasons": "home_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "none", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.487827", "winning_chance_score": "0.616219", "value_opportunity_score": "0.808099", "winning_chance_rank": "25", "value_opportunity_rank": "3", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.7531,sample=0.6310)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.702605", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.567636", "publication_rank_score": "0.664814", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "8", "publication_value_rank": "7", "league_market_history_bets": "2", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "2", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.0", "league_market_history_profit": "-20.0", "league_market_history_roi": "-1.0", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.621551", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "1.0", "high_win_profile_status": "HIGH-WIN", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample).", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.702045", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.26. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 62%; reliability score 70%; profile similarity 62/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — KETTERING 1.98 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.80), LEISTON 1.14 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.02), match 3.11 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: KETTERING 1+ 86% / 2+ 59%; LEISTON 1+ 68% / 2+ 31%. Match: 2+ 82%, 3+ 60%, 4+ 38%; central goal band 2-5 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — HOME / KETTERING, ELITE; KETTERING 2+ 59% vs LEISTON 2+ 31%; supplier gap 27pp; supplier reliability 78%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 63%; recent O2.5 support 70%; third-goal route 60% (STRONG). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — HIGH-WIN; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. V61 O2.5 structural contract passed; the supplier-confirmed historical sub-pocket was 11/14 (78.6%, limited sample). | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE; current reliability 70% (STRONG). Historical high-win structure is present, but current fixture quality is only moderate. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League,premier Division Central / OU OVER 2.5: 0-2 from 2 settled published CTM picks (0%, ROI -100.0%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 57%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — league is on CTM watch; weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN / CURRENT MODERATE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=651, win rate 56%, synthetic ROI 32%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=QUALIFIED (PASS); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.1148", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.1148", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.1373", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0998277031878704", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.9775", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0399941700233199", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0706606105575577", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "154", "v65_alternative_scores": "2-1, 1-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2863083960538999", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.9775", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.1373", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "5", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "WATCH", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "f173f60585f43937", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "DONCASTER vs STOCKPORT", "league": "LEAGUE ONE", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6154", "prediction_odds": "2.09", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4785", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.62", "prediction_edge_pct": "13.69", "prediction_ev": "0.2862", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Away win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "TEAM_PAGE_OBSERVATION_ONLY", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Away win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.559972", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.559972", "draw_probability_raw": "0.227262", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.227262", "direction_gap": "0.332711", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.496466", "draw_risk_score": "0.256548", "draw_resistance_score": "0.772892", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.238696", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.2128", "draw_prob": "0.2273", "away_win_prob": "0.56", "home_odds": "3.6", "draw_odds": "3.5", "away_odds": "1.85", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.202023", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.214225", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.583752", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.212766", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.227262", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.559972", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.212766", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.227262", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.559972", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.0882", "expected_away_goals": "1.9947", "expected_total_goals": "3.0829", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.0882", "away_goal_lambda": "1.9947", "match_goal_lambda": "3.0829", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0995", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.3368", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.1361", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.0829", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.69", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.69", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.362151", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.362151", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.340,recent_scoring_conceding:0.408,form_momentum:0.439", "lambda_direction_resolution": "away_direction_trusted:gap=0.71", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.184", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.6632", "home_prob_2plus": "0.2966", "home_prob_3plus": "0.0972", "away_prob_1plus": "0.8639", "away_prob_2plus": "0.5926", "away_prob_3plus": "0.3219", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8129", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5951", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3713", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.0829", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8129", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5951", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3713", "ou25_probability_band": "qualified", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.4616", "direction_abs_score": "0.4616", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9254", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.7939", "direction_team_edge": "-0.4198", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.5594", "direction_form_edge": "-0.0481", "direction_defence_edge": "0.1121", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5729", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.709", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.2346", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.4655", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.4", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.6", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.4", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.713", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.5455", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.0882", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.9947", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.0829", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.9065", "losing_pick_risk_score": "9", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "weak_confidence|elevated_blank_risk|home_hard_blank_warning|home_weak_two_goal_floor|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.5951", "probability": "0.6154", "confidence_model": "0.6308", "performance_confidence": "0.6154", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.6135", "confidence_gate": "0.6154", "model_conf_raw": "0.6308", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6154", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6154", "confidence": "0.6154", "market_performance_confidence": "0.310673", "market_performance_score": "31.07", "market_performance_score_base": "37.29", "market_confidence_band": "REJECT", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.46", "confidence_route_component": "0.125", "confidence_environment_component": "0.570256", "confidence_safety_component": "0.352", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.501212", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "-1.23", "confidence_total_modifier": "-6.23", "confidence_component_summary": "history 46%; route 13%; environment 57%; safety 35%; probability 50%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "2.09", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4785", "edge_p": "0.1369", "edge_pct": "13.69", "ev": "0.2862", "quant_shape_score": "0.687032", "quant_ev": "0.286199", "quant_score": "0.659702", "prematch_data_score": "0.675", "data_grade": "B", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.821", "historical_risk_score": "0.224", "historical_net_score": "0.72", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.473", "best_goal_market_support": "0.809", "market_history_support": "0.611", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.991", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.6", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.4", "ou15_history_support": "0.809", "ou25_history_support": "0.611", "ou35_history_support": "0.307", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.553", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.465", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.769", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.337", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.625", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.4", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.0", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.4", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.5", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "NORMAL_MARKETS_ALLOWED", "data_grade_reason": "cap_lower_league_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.62", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — DONCASTER vs STOCKPORT: Over 2.5 @ 2.09\nOUTLOOK — DONCASTER 1.09 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | STOCKPORT 1.99 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | Match 3.08 expected (about 3 goals; 2-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — STOCKPORT is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (elite directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.08 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 1-3, 0-3.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "low_conf", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8625", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.734", "dom_live_index": "0.734", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.649", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.595", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.662", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.596", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.3007", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.668", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.876", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "8", "selection_regime_fit": "0.875", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.6388", "raw_expected_home_goals": "0.9351", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.6469", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.0452", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.8409", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.8861", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.0452", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.8409", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.8861", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.0882", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.9947", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.0829", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.043", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1538", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1968", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.648379", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.280864", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.841325", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.549221", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.783181", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.550814", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.327268", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.073/0.956);h2h_total_adj=1.012", "lambda_correction_reason": "away_direction_trusted:gap=0.71;history_piecewise_offset=+0.184", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 1, 3]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 3, 0, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 2, 1, 2, 3]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 3, 0, 3]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 0, 0, 1, 3]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 3, 0, 1]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[3, 2, 1, 2, 3]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 3, 0, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[5, 4, 3, 1, 0]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 2, 1, 1, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 1, 3, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 0, 0, 1, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "2.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.095", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.748", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.0", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "1.0", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.6", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.273", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.2", "goal_floor_score": "0.654", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40|SECOND_GOAL_SECURITY_LT_55", "second_goal_security": "0.496", "second_goal_route_count": "1", "home_1plus_route": "0.6", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.4", "btts_1plus_route": "0.6", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.0", "zero_zero_resistance": "1.0", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.64", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.84", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.9", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.93", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.827", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.187", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.375", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.312", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.125", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.375", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.836", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.809", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.6", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.636", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.611", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "DONCASTER", "away_team": "STOCKPORT", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", 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"sofascore_context_market_v1_chronological_roi_gate", "sofa_context_model_status": "SHADOW_ONLY_SAMPLE_TOO_SMALL", "sofa_context_model_probability": "", "sofa_context_model_samples": "90", "sofa_context_model_days": "7", "sofa_context_model_auc": "", "sofa_context_model_recent_auc": "", "sofa_context_model_brier_gain": "", "sofa_context_model_value_n": "0", "sofa_context_model_value_roi": "", "sofa_context_live_applied": "0", "sofa_context_model_live_eligible": "0", "sofa_context_valid_prematch_stats": "0", "sofa_context_valid_prematch_standings": "0", "sofa_context_valid_prematch_context": "0", "sofa_context_player_signal_role": "OBSERVATION_ONLY_NOT_CONFIRMED_ABSENCE_OR_STARTING_XI", "force_keep": "0", "composite_score": "0.7130919499999999", "market_profile_passed": "1", "market_profile_reason": "profile_ou25_core_value_ok(goal_price_informational_only)", "market_profile_name": "OU25_CORE_V1", "evidence_promoted": "0", "evidence_promotion_reason": "", "prune_value_score": "0.535173", "settled_profile_released": "0", "settled_profile_release_reason": "", "validated_combo_passed": "1", "validated_combo_name": "OU25_DIRECT_HISTORY_PLUS_THIRD_GOAL_PATH", "validated_combo_warning": "weak_confidence|elevated_blank_risk|home_hard_blank_warning|home_weak_two_goal_floor|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "winner_profile_score": "4", "winner_profile_level": "OU25_VALUE_ELITE", "loser_risk_level": "HIGH_LOSS_RISK", "profile_signals_passed": "OU25_DIRECT_HISTORY_PLUS_THIRD_GOAL_PATH", "profile_signals_failed": "DATA_GRADE_C|NO_LEAGUE_HISTORY|ELEVATED_BLANK_RISK|HOME_HARD_BLANK_WARNING|HOME_WEAK_TWO_GOAL_FLOOR", "profile_market": "OU25", "profile_sample_size": "77", "chronological_validation_rate": "0.701", "publication_band": "SECONDARY_TRACK", "secondary_track_only": "1", "main_ticket_selected": "0", "highest_stake": "0", "value_classification": "POSITIVE_VALUE", "effective_model_ev": "0.286186", "terminal_policy_failure": "", "v35_calibrated_direct_ou25": "", "high_goal_ceiling_score": "0.5974", "high_goal_ceiling_flag": "0", "promotion_evaluated": "1", "promotion_eligible": "1", "promotion_score": "0.519178", "promotion_rank": "2", "promotion_reject_reason": "", "line_selected": "0", "line_not_selected_reason": "ou25_upgrade_evidence_incomplete", "ou25_line_upgrade_ready": "1", "aug06_market_rule": "aug06_ou25_restored_release", "aug06_market_pass": "1", "aug06_stage": "after_all_promotions", "ou15_recent_value_signal": "0", "ou15_recent_value_reason": "", "minutes_to_kickoff": "1002.04", "live_publication_eligible": "1", "live_publication_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "football_qualification_pass": "1", "football_qualification_status": "BLOCK", "football_qualification_reason": "OU25_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED|OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED", "v61_operating_contract_pass": "1", "v61_operating_contract_status": "PASS_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION", "v61_operating_contract_reason": "PASS_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION", "v61_operating_market_role": "THIRD_GOAL_VALUE", "v61_operating_direct_rate": "0.6", "v61_operating_probability": "0.6154", "v61_operating_source_conflict_caution": "0", "real_odds_verification_required": "1", "min_acceptable_real_odds": "1.6", "max_acceptable_real_odds": "1.99", "display_minimum_real_odds": "1.6", "display_maximum_real_odds": "2.29", "synthetic_price_display_pass": "1", "synthetic_price_execution_pass": "1", "executable_publication_pass": "1", "executable_publication_status": "EXECUTABLE", "executable_publication_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION", "execution_price_role": "V65_3_EVIDENCE_EXECUTION_BAND", "market_validation_status": "RETROSPECTIVE_OU_RULE", "market_probability_status": "MODEL_ESTIMATE_NOT_PROSPECTIVELY_CALIBRATED", "secondary_value_eligible": "1", "legacy_gate_override_used": "0", "legacy_gate_override_reason": "", "v61_operating_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v64_perf_wr_long": "0.670886", "v64_perf_roi_long": "0.304599", "v64_market_performance_score": "0.703916", "v64_perf_n_60d": "237", "v64_perf_n_long": "237", "v64_perf_roi_21d": "0.277417", "v64_perf_roi_7d": "0.294933", "v64_market_performance_status": "CHRONOLOGICAL_PREMATCH_ROLLING", "v64_perf_roi_60d": "0.304599", "v64_perf_n_21d": "151", "v64_perf_wr_60d": "0.670886", "v64_perf_wr_21d": "0.662252", "v64_perf_wr_7d": "0.68", "v64_perf_n_7d": "75", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling": "1.99", "v64_ou25_execution_ceiling_reason": "OPERATING_CONTRACT_FAILED", "v64_adaptive_execution_pass": "1.0", "ou25_evidence_expansion_provisional": "0.0", "ou25_evidence_expansion_maturity": "MATURE_EVIDENCE", "v64_market_expression_score": "0.610873", "v64_market_expression_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "btts_xg_structure_ok": "", "btts_context_ok": "", "quant_score_f": "", "quant_ev_f": "", "quant_shape_f": "", "quant_ev_norm": "", "synthetic_price_value_index": "0.521531", "rank_in_match": "1", "downgraded_from_market": "", "downgraded_from_selection": "", "qualification_status": "PUBLISHED_NOT_MAIN_ELIGIBLE", "prune_reason": "TERMINAL_VALIDATED_LOSER_PROFILE", "ticket_use_override": "", "publish_reason_final": "", "score_value_profile_pass": "0", "score_value_profile_reason": "SCORE_VALUE_CONFIDENCE_BELOW_MARKET_MIN", "settled_value_profile_pass": "", "settled_value_profile_reason": "", "publication_role": "", "weak_three_goal_route": "0.0", "weak_three_goal_route_control": "0.649", "weak_three_goal_route_home_xg": "1.0882", "weak_three_goal_route_away_xg": "1.9947", "weak_three_goal_route_total_xg": "3.0829", "weak_three_goal_route_away_lambda": "1.9947", "weak_three_goal_route_opponent_conceded_2plus": "0.6", "weak_three_goal_route_dominant_path": "0.0", "weak_three_goal_route_action": "CLEAR", "ou25_calibrated_profit_override": "", "terminal_higher_line_status": "", "portfolio_recommended_flag": "", "safer_market_available": "", "published_market_role": "PRIMARY_VALUE", "market_portfolio_value_index": "", "market_portfolio_score": "", "prob": "0.6154", "home_goal_path_1plus": "0.6095", "away_goal_path_1plus": "0.7232", "home_goal_path_2plus": "0.2633", "away_goal_path_2plus": "0.4882", "match_two_goal_path_strength": "0.6639", "match_third_goal_path_strength": "0.4882", "goal_environment_collapse_risk": "0.2536", "h2h_low_total_rate": "0.25", "h2h_low_total_sample": "4.0", "low_total_tail_red_flag": "0.0", "defensive_stalemate_red_flag": "0.0", "btts_h2h_veto": "0.0", "goal_environment_profile_version": "V36_SCORING_CONCEDING", "fh_goal_prob_o15": "0.3498", "fh_goal_note": "The first-half estimate is unvalidated and is not used to promote this full-time pick.", "fh_direct_history_trusted": "0.0", "fh_direct_history_matches": "0.0", "first_half_context_source": "canonical_corrected_goal_pack", "goal_environment_warning_reason": "", "goal_environment_status": "PASS", "goal_environment_reject_reason": "", "terminal_qualification_route": "", "terminal_approved_route": "", "ou25_terminal_strong_line_override": "", "published_for_display": "1", "published_for_execution": "1", "market_role": "OU25_PROVISIONAL_HIGH_GOAL_ALTERNATIVE", "portfolio_selection_status": "PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE", "portfolio_selection_reason": "V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN", "v61_market_expression_decision": "PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE", "v66_1x2_terminal_preserve_stage": "", "ticket_primary_eligible": "0", "main_acca_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_eligible": "0", "highest_stake_selected": "0", "positive_ft_goal_scope_pass": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_stage": "", "positive_ft_goal_scope_reason": "", "current_performance_contract_pass": "", "current_performance_contract_status": "", "current_performance_contract_reason": "", "current_performance_market_role": "", "current_performance_probability_used": "", "current_performance_profile_score_used": "", "current_performance_odds_used": "", "current_performance_value_index_used": "", "current_performance_safety_component_used": "", "current_performance_value_score": "", "current_performance_direct_rate_used": "", "current_performance_selected_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_max_blank_risk_used": "", "current_performance_zero_zero_risk_used": "", "current_performance_contract_version": "", "v64_executable_alternative": "1", "preferred_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "fallback_market": "", "recommended_market_label": "OU OVER 2.5", "recommended_market": "OU OVER 2.5", "v64_shadow_candidate": "0", "v64_shadow_reason": "", "v64_market_expression_policy": "CHRONOLOGICAL_ROLLING_PERFORMANCE_PLUS_FIXTURE_EVIDENCE_NO_FIXED_MARKET_PRIORITY", "v657_preferred_goal_expression": "OU OVER 2.5", "v657_goal_router_role": "TOTAL_GOAL_PRIMARY", "league_history_bets": "0.0", "league_history_win_rate": "", "league_history_roi": "", "league_history_guard": "unknown", "league_history_label": "NO_HISTORY", "v657_high_goal_environment_pass": "1.0", "v657_home_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_away_tg_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_btts_recovery_pass": "0.0", "v657_ou25_recovery_pass": "1.0", "same_ticket_compatible": "1", "v657_recovery_pass": "1.0", "v657_recovery_type": "OU25_HIGH_GOAL_RECOVERY", "v657_recovery_provisional": "1.0", "main_acca_eligibility_reason": "secondary_track_only:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "highest_stake_eligibility_reason": "highest_stake_main_acca_not_mature_high_win_market", "ticket_use": "SECONDARY VALUE", "ticket_quality_class": "SECONDARY", "same_match_ticket_warning": "Executable alternative supplied to ticket builder; one selection per fixture still applies.", "ticket_use_in": "Separate/secondary ticket only", "secondary_track_reason": "PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "score_value_publication_role": "", "synthetic_curve_version": "settled_all_candidates_20260816_v1", "synthetic_curve_sample": "704", "synthetic_curve_win_rate": "0.605114", "synthetic_curve_win_rate_lower": "0.5685273999602342", "synthetic_curve_roi": "0.284915", "synthetic_curve_roi_score": "0.7442555555555554", "synthetic_value_index": "0.5215311004784688", "synthetic_frontier_score": "0.5536028317384369", "synthetic_frontier_pass": "1", "synthetic_frontier_reason": "SYNTHETIC_CURVE_CONSERVATIVE_WINRATE_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_recommended": "0", "synthetic_frontier_rank": "", "synthetic_frontier_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "value_ticket_selected": "0", "value_ticket_role": "NOT_QUALIFIED", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_win_rate": "", "synthetic_frontier_anchor_confidence": "", "engine_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "home_blank_risk": "0.4", "away_blank_risk": "0.12", "max_blank_risk": "0.4", "xg_balance_ratio": "0.5455", "balanced_goal_path": "0", "dominant_goal_path": "0", "goal_path_ok": "0", "home_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate_resolved": "0.0", "home_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.2", "away_scored_2plus_rate_resolved": "0.8", "home_form_avg_scored_resolved": "1.0", "away_form_avg_scored_resolved": "2.2", "home_hard_blank_warning": "1", "away_hard_blank_warning": "0", "home_weak_two_goal_floor": "1", "away_weak_two_goal_floor": "0", "ou25_scoring_floor_conflict": "1", "p_total_le1": "0.1871", "p_total_le2": "0.4049", "p_exactly2": "0.2178", "winner_quality_score": "0.5538", "winner_quality_score_legacy": "0.5786", "winner_goal_environment_score": "0.7305", "winner_blank_resistance_score": "0.6", "winner_two_goal_capacity_score": "0.2816", "winner_consistency_score": "0.402", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.8906", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.4739", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.725038", "soft_warning_count": "3", "severe_warning_count": "1", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "home_hard_blank_warning|home_weak_two_goal_floor|weak_confidence", "severe_warning_reasons": "elevated_blank_risk", "structural_warning_reasons": "v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.47451", "winning_chance_score": "0.429228", "value_opportunity_score": "0.679678", "winning_chance_rank": "45", "value_opportunity_rank": "17", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.7130,sample=0.6310)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "V61_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.52999", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.49234", "publication_rank_score": "0.519448", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "24", "publication_value_rank": "17", "league_market_history_bets": "0", "league_market_history_wins": "0", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "", "league_market_history_profit": "", "league_market_history_roi": "", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "NO REFERENCE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.310673", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.533798", "current_reliability_label": "LIMITED", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.09. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 62%; reliability score 53%; profile similarity 31/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); source-data grade B; real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — DONCASTER 1.09 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.05), STOCKPORT 1.99 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.84), match 3.08 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: DONCASTER 1+ 66% / 2+ 30%; STOCKPORT 1+ 86% / 2+ 59%. Match: 2+ 81%, 3+ 60%, 4+ 37%; central goal band 2-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AWAY / STOCKPORT, ELITE; DONCASTER 2+ 30% vs STOCKPORT 2+ 59%; supplier gap 30pp; supplier reliability 78%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 50%; recent O2.5 support 60%; third-goal route 40% (NOT_SELECTED_LINE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 53% (LIMITED). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — no settled CTM league-market record is available yet for LEAGUE ONE. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 49%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_MARKET_CONTRACT_FAILED|OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.0829", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.0829", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.9947", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0994717711767867", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.0882", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.00400761223162", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.1098378009108652", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "63", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 0-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2900893992237179", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.0882", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.9947", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "REJECT", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "5246d97081b7ec14", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "BATH vs HAVANT WATER", "league": "Southern Football League, Premier Division South", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6102", "prediction_odds": "2.23", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4484", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.64", "prediction_edge_pct": "16.18", "prediction_ev": "0.3608", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Home win likely", "fixture_side_lean": "HOME", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Home win likely", "match_outlook_strength": "strong", "predicted_direction": "HOME", "direction_probability_raw": "0.575237", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.575237", "draw_probability_raw": "0.228005", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.228005", "direction_gap": "0.347233", "outlook_direction_score": "0.518615", "draw_risk_score": "0.255657", "draw_resistance_score": "0.801503", "source_agreement_count": "4", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "1.0", "source_contradiction_count": "0", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.177593", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_eligible": "1", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "", "home_win_prob": "0.5752", "draw_prob": "0.228", "away_win_prob": "0.1968", "home_odds": "1.6", "draw_odds": "3.6", "away_odds": "4.8", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.587539", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.213407", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.199054", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.575237", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.228005", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.196758", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.575237", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.228005", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.196758", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "2.0019", "expected_away_goals": "1.0786", "expected_total_goals": "3.0805", "expected_home_goals_n": "2", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "2 goals most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "2.0019", "away_goal_lambda": "1.0786", "match_goal_lambda": "3.0805", "home_goal_forecast": "2 goals most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "2-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "2-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.0993", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.1351", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.3401", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.0804", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.443", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.443", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.654019", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.654019", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.749,recent_scoring_conceding:0.479,form_momentum:0.564", "lambda_direction_resolution": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.77", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.180", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.8649", "home_prob_2plus": "0.5945", "home_prob_3plus": "0.3238", "away_prob_1plus": "0.6599", "away_prob_2plus": "0.2931", "away_prob_3plus": "0.0953", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8125", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5946", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3708", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.0805", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8125", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5946", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3708", "ou25_probability_band": "qualified", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "0.4484", "direction_abs_score": "0.4484", "direction_side": "HOME", "direction_confidence": "0.8897", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "0.936", "direction_team_edge": "0.0", "direction_xg_edge": "0.5701", "direction_form_edge": "0.4504", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.1747", "direction_agreement": "0.75", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.63641", "btts_yes_prob": "0.5708", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.7072", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.2281", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.601", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.724", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.5388", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "2.0019", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.0786", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.0804", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "0.9233", "losing_pick_risk_score": "6", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "home_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.5946", "probability": "0.6102", "confidence_model": "0.5956", "performance_confidence": "0.6102", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.5801", "confidence_gate": "0.6102", "model_conf_raw": "0.5956", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6102", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6102", "confidence": "0.6102", "market_performance_confidence": "0.676352", "market_performance_score": "67.64", "market_performance_score_base": "68.16", "market_confidence_band": "WATCH", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.708571", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.783542", "confidence_safety_component": "0.645619", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.485455", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.47", "confidence_total_modifier": "-0.53", "confidence_component_summary": "history 71%; route 62%; environment 78%; safety 65%; probability 49%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "2.23", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4484", "edge_p": "0.1618", "edge_pct": "16.18", "ev": "0.3608", "quant_shape_score": "0.67761", "quant_ev": "0.360782", "quant_score": "0.692636", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.819", "historical_risk_score": "0.226", "historical_net_score": "0.717", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.237", "best_goal_market_support": "0.915", "market_history_support": "0.698", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.99", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "1.0", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.7", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.915", "ou25_history_support": "0.698", "ou35_history_support": "0.504", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.645", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.631", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.673", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.642", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.486", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "1.0", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.8", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.0", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.69", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.565", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context", "fair_odds": "1.64", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — BATH vs HAVANT WATER: Over 2.5 @ 2.23\nOUTLOOK — BATH 2.00 expected (about 2 goals; 1-3 plausible) | HAVANT WATER 1.08 expected (about 1 goal; 0-2 plausible) | Match 3.08 expected (about 3 goals; 2-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — BATH is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (elite directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.08 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 2-1, 3-1, 3-0.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.497", "data_completeness_score": "0.7589", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.999", "dom_live_index": "0.999", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.942", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.586", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.604", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.549", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.2946", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.5", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.5", "h2h_confidence": "0.736", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "8", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.729", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.6247", "raw_expected_away_goals": "0.8595", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.821", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "0.9633", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.7843", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.821", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "0.9633", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.7843", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "2.0019", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.0786", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.0805", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1809", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1153", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2961", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.838136", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.543382", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.618369", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.250743", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.766235", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.526795", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.304572", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=H(1.100/0.940);h2h_total_adj=1.002", "lambda_correction_reason": "home_direction_trusted:gap=0.77;history_piecewise_offset=+0.180", "directional_lambda_trusted": "1", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 0, 2, 3]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 3, 2, 3, 1]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 0, 3, 4]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 3, 2, 3, 0]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 0, 2, 3]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 3, 2, 3, 1]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 1, 0, 3, 4]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[4, 3, 2, 3, 0]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "1.4", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.8", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "1.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.2", "away_recent_goal_std": "1.47", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.429", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.444", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.444", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.4", "goal_floor_score": "0.66", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": 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"winner_consistency_score": "0.2014", "winner_tempo_control_score": "0.5", "winner_source_agreement_score": "0.7842", "winner_recent_direction_score": "0.584", "winner_sample_strength_score": "0.6305", "effective_prediction_reliability": "0.414699", "soft_warning_count": "2", "severe_warning_count": "0", "structural_warning_count": "1", "soft_warning_reasons": "home_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency", "severe_warning_reasons": "none", "structural_warning_reasons": "v61_third_goal_route_weak", "prediction_outlier_flag": "0", "prediction_outlier_severity": "0", "prediction_outlier_reason": "none", "acca_selection_score": "0.496988", "winning_chance_score": "0.451584", "value_opportunity_score": "0.728675", "winning_chance_rank": "39", "value_opportunity_rank": "10", "main_acca_calibration_profile": "OU25_STRONG_SUPPORT", "main_acca_calibration_tier": "SECONDARY", "main_acca_calibration_tier_rank": "0", "main_acca_reference_bets": "57", "main_acca_reference_win_rate": "0.7543859649", "main_acca_published_reference_bets": "18", "main_acca_published_reference_win_rate": "0.7222222222", "main_acca_holdout_bets": "17", "main_acca_holdout_win_rate": "0.8235294118", "main_acca_calibration_version": "MAIN_WIN_PROFILE_20260922_V4_VALUE_ALIGNED", "ticket_support_eligible": "0", "ticket_support_reason": "ou25_support_fail(btts_xg=0.7240,sample=0.6310)", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61": "CORE", "ticket_value_class": "GOOD VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Secondary-track policy: provisional support only", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS_V657_EVIDENCE_RECOVERY_TERMINAL_WARNINGS_SOFT", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "", "v652_missing_h2h": "", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "", "v655_terminal_policy": "", "v657_terminal_override_used": "1.0", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "Qualified V65.8 recovery or V69 side-specific Team Goals route; terminal hard vetoes remain enforced.", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.720517", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.55985", "publication_rank_score": "0.67553", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "4", "publication_value_rank": "9", "league_market_history_bets": "3", "league_market_history_wins": "1", "league_market_history_losses": "2", "league_market_history_win_rate": "0.3333", "league_market_history_profit": "-8.6", "league_market_history_roi": "-0.2867", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.676352", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.71416", "current_reliability_label": "STRONG", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.23. | TICKET — live use CORE VALUE; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 61%; reliability score 71%; profile similarity 68/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — BATH 2.00 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.82), HAVANT WATER 1.08 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 0.96), match 3.08 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: BATH 1+ 86% / 2+ 59%; HAVANT WATER 1+ 66% / 2+ 29%. Match: 2+ 81%, 3+ 59%, 4+ 37%; central goal band 2-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 2-1 (10%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — HOME / BATH, ELITE; BATH 2+ 59% vs HAVANT WATER 2+ 29%; supplier gap 30pp; supplier reliability 76%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 63%; recent O2.5 support 80%; third-goal route 60% (PASS_EVIDENCE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 71% (STRONG). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Southern Football League, Premier Division South / OU OVER 2.5: 1-2 from 3 settled published CTM picks (33%, ROI -28.7%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 56%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.0805", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.0805", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.0786", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.0992821167354953", "v65_central_score": "2-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "2.0019", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0725009834190966", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0963550829045169", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "141", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-1, 2-0", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.290517211295996", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "0", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "2.0019", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "3", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.0786", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "WATCH", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" }, { "match_id": "04cd0754f10f2746", "kickoff_utc": "2026-10-20 18:45:00+00:00", "kickoff_sa": "2026-10-20 20:45:00", "match": "BRENTWOOD TOWN vs DARTFORD", "league": "Isthmian League, Pr. Div", "market": "OU", "selection": "Over 2.5", "prediction_label": "Over 2.5", "prediction_market": "OU", "prediction_selection": "OVER 2.5", "prediction_scope": "FULL_TIME_GOALS", "prediction_direction": "TOTAL GOALS", "prediction_probability": "0.6012", "prediction_odds": "2.2", "prediction_implied_probability": "0.4545", "prediction_fair_odds": "1.66", "prediction_edge_pct": "14.66", "prediction_ev": "0.3226", "prediction_probability_source": "PUBLICATION_MARKET_PROBABILITY", "prediction_odds_source": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "selection_alignment_pass": "1", "selection_alignment_reason": "PASS_GOAL_SELECTION_PROBABILITY_AND_ODDS_ALIGNED", "publication_family": "GOALS", "fixture_publication_families": "GOALS", "fixture_published_market_count": "1", "fixture_has_1x2_and_goal_markets": "0", "fixture_1x2_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "fixture_side_lean": "AWAY", "live_context_relegation_pressure": "0", "live_context_relegation_confidence_penalty": "0.0", "live_context_applied": "0", "live_context_stats_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_attack_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_clean_sheet_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_defence_vulnerability_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_standings_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_home_delta": "0.0", "live_context_players_away_delta": "0.0", "live_context_stats_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_standings_status": "REJECTED_OR_INSUFFICIENT_SAMPLE", "live_context_players_status": "NO_VERIFIED_MATCHDAY_LINEUP", "live_context_reason": "NO_VALID_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "match_outlook": "Balanced / draw risk", "match_outlook_strength": "balanced", "predicted_direction": "AWAY", "direction_probability_raw": "0.398543", "direction_probability_calibrated": "0.398543", "draw_probability_raw": "0.251464", "draw_probability_calibrated": "0.251464", "direction_gap": "0.04855", "outlook_direction_score": "-0.075619", "draw_risk_score": "0.596143", "draw_resistance_score": "0.040674", "source_agreement_count": "3", "source_evidence_count": "4", "source_agreement_score": "0.75", "source_contradiction_count": "1", "outlook_uncertainty_score": "0.534992", "exact_1x2_structurally_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_eligible": "0", "exact_1x2_block_reason": "weak_draw_resistance|small_1x2_probability_gap", "home_win_prob": "0.35", "draw_prob": "0.2515", "away_win_prob": "0.3985", "home_odds": "2.7", "draw_odds": "3.3", "away_odds": "2.3", "home_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.34812", "draw_prob_v59_raw": "0.23989", "away_win_prob_v59_raw": "0.411991", "home_win_prob_canonical": "0.349993", "draw_prob_canonical": "0.251464", "away_win_prob_canonical": "0.398543", "home_win_prob_calibrated": "0.349993", "draw_prob_calibrated": "0.251464", "away_win_prob_calibrated": "0.398543", "one_x_two_probability_sum": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_temperature": "1.0", "one_x_two_calibration_status": "JOINT_TEMPERATURE_CALIBRATED", "one_x_two_calibration_version": "V66_CANONICAL_POISSON_JOINT_T1_00_422FT_CHRONO_CHECK", "one_x_two_probability_source": "V56_CANONICAL_LAMBDAS", "dc_outlook_bucket": "", "dc_alignment_score": "", "dc_direction_gap": "", "dc_draw_dependency": "", "dc_team_support": "", "dc_value_score": "", "alignment_penalty": "0.0", "expected_home_goals": "1.4534", "expected_away_goals": "1.5999", "expected_total_goals": "3.0533", "expected_home_goals_n": "1", "expected_away_goals_n": "1", "expected_total_goals_n": "3", "expected_home_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_away_goals_label": "1 goal most likely", "expected_total_goals_label": "3 goals most likely", "home_goal_lambda": "1.4534", "away_goal_lambda": "1.5999", "match_goal_lambda": "3.0533", "home_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "away_goal_forecast": "1 goal most likely", "match_goal_forecast": "2-4 goals central range", "expected_score_profile": "1-1", "most_likely_scoreline": "1-1", "expected_score_probability": "0.1098", "expected_score_meaning": "JOINT_POISSON_MODE_NOT_EXACT_PREDICTION", "top_scoreline_candidates": "1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%)", "match_most_likely_goals": "3", "match_goal_range_low": "2", "match_goal_range_high": "4", "home_zero_goal_probability": "0.2338", "away_zero_goal_probability": "0.2019", "goal_lambda_sum_delta": "0.0", "goal_lambda_consistency_status": "PASS", "goal_forecast_method": "V59_OUTCOME_CALIBRATED_TEAM_MEAN_POISSON", "supplied_goal_total": "3.0533", "supplied_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.0", "supplied_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "processor_raw_goal_side_sum": "2.675", "processor_raw_goal_total": "2.676", "processor_raw_goal_total_sum_delta": "0.001", "processor_raw_goal_total_consistency_status": "PASS", "lambda_raw_home_share": "0.462205", "lambda_final_home_share": "0.480952", "lambda_source_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_corrected_equal_flag": "0", "lambda_side_evidence_count": "3", "lambda_side_evidence_summary": "1x2_market:0.460,recent_scoring_conceding:0.538,form_momentum:0.567", "lambda_direction_resolution": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.19", "goal_total_calibration_note": "history_piecewise_offset=+0.181", "goal_total_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus": "0.7662", "home_prob_2plus": "0.4265", "home_prob_3plus": "0.1796", "away_prob_1plus": "0.7981", "away_prob_2plus": "0.475", "away_prob_3plus": "0.2166", "match_prob_2plus": "0.8087", "match_prob_3plus": "0.5886", "match_prob_4plus": "0.3647", "line_selection_calibrated_lambda": "3.0533", "line_selection_calibrated_p2plus": "0.8087", "line_selection_calibrated_p3plus": "0.5886", "line_selection_calibrated_p4plus": "0.3647", "ou25_probability_band": "qualified", "ou25_p3_qualified": "1", "ou25_p3_strong": "0", "direction_score": "-0.3869", "direction_abs_score": "0.3869", "direction_side": "AWAY", "direction_confidence": "0.9254", "direction_gap_quality": "STRONG", "direction_market_edge": "-0.2582", "direction_team_edge": "-0.8861", "direction_xg_edge": "-0.237", "direction_form_edge": "0.2965", "direction_defence_edge": "-0.8406", "direction_agreement": "0.8", "direction_evidence_quality": "0.80301", "btts_yes_prob": "0.6115", "btts_outlook": "BTTS expected", "fh_goal_prob_o05": "0.6954", "fh_goal_lambda": "1.1886", "fh_goal_label": "early_goal_unvalidated", "fh_goal_support": "0.0", "implied_btts_yes": "0", "btts_tg_support_score": "0.6197", "btts_tg_rescue": "0", "btts_profile_ok": "0", "btts_history_ok": "0", "btts_strong_history_override": "0", "btts_combined_history_rate": "0.6", "btts_scoring_floor": "0.6", "btts_concession_floor": "0.8", "btts_failed_to_score_risk": "0.4", "btts_clean_sheet_risk": "0.2", "btts_xg_profile_score": "0.8802", "btts_xg_balance_ratio": "0.9084", "btts_h2h_used": "1", "btts_resolved_home_xg": "1.4534", "btts_resolved_away_xg": "1.5999", "btts_resolved_total_xg": "3.0533", "xg_support_ok": "1", "xg_support_note": "xg_support_not_required", "xg_support_score": "0.5", "xg_order_status": "normal", "xg_stats_home_away_trusted": "1", "xg_stats_order_reversed": "0", "tg_xg_direction_gap": "-0.1465", "losing_pick_risk_score": "7", "losing_pick_risk_reason": "low_control|away_hard_blank_warning|low_scoring_consistency|v61_third_goal_route_weak", "probability_raw": "0.5886", "probability": "0.6012", "confidence_model": "0.5551", "performance_confidence": "0.6012", "performance_confidence_legacy": "0.4779", "confidence_gate": "0.6012", "model_conf_raw": "0.5551", "perf_conf_raw": "0.6012", "gate_conf_raw": "0.6012", "confidence": "0.6012", "market_performance_confidence": "0.697865", "market_performance_score": "69.79", "market_performance_score_base": "70.57", "market_confidence_band": "WATCH", "market_confidence_method": "OU25_HISTORY_THIRD_GOAL_ENV_SAFETY", "market_confidence_validated_market": "1", "market_confidence_minimum": "0.7", "market_confidence_contract_pass": "0", "confidence_history_component": "0.851429", "confidence_route_component": "0.625", "confidence_environment_component": "0.772208", "confidence_safety_component": "0.596143", "confidence_opponent_component": "", "confidence_probability_component": "0.458182", "confidence_input_modifier": "-8.0", "confidence_goal_floor_modifier": "3.0", "confidence_source_modifier": "0.0", "confidence_line_modifier": "4.21", "confidence_total_modifier": "-0.79", "confidence_component_summary": "history 85%; route 62%; environment 77%; safety 60%; probability 46%", "confidence_stars": "3", "tier": "SECONDARY_VALUE", "odds": "2.2", "odds_expected_col": "ou_over_2_5_odds", "implied_prob": "0.4545", "edge_p": "0.1466", "edge_pct": "14.66", "ev": "0.3226", "quant_shape_score": "0.650092", "quant_ev": "0.322576", "quant_score": "0.693767", "prematch_data_score": "0.659", "data_grade": "C", "prediction_input_grade": "C", "prediction_input_permission": "SAFE_GOAL_MARKETS_ONLY", "prediction_input_reason": "usable_but_limited_or_volatile_history", "historical_context_strength": "GOOD_HISTORY", "historical_evidence_score": "0.814", "historical_risk_score": "0.219", "historical_net_score": "0.716", "overall_sample_strength": "0.631", "both_team_score_consistency": "0.316", "best_goal_market_support": "0.806", "market_history_support": "0.748", "market_ctm_agreement_score": "0.991", "both_teams_reliable": "1", "combined_over15_rate": "0.8", "combined_over25_rate": "0.8", "combined_over35_rate": "0.4", "combined_btts_rate": "0.6", "ou15_history_support": "0.806", "ou25_history_support": "0.748", "ou35_history_support": "0.304", "btts_yes_history_support": "0.659", "home_tg05_history_support": "0.645", "away_tg05_history_support": "0.655", "home_tg15_history_support": "0.371", "away_tg15_history_support": "0.588", "home_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "away_goal_direction_trusted": "1", "home_identity_verified": "1", "away_identity_verified": "1", "home_goal_history_complete": "1", "away_goal_history_complete": "1", "directional_pair_trusted": "1", "directional_source_conflict": "0", "directional_lineage_status": "BOTH_SIDES_VERIFIED", "home_lineage_score": "1.0", "away_lineage_score": "1.0", "home_goal_history_components": "2", "away_goal_history_components": "2", "home_scored_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_scored_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_scored_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_conceded_1plus_rate": "0.8", "home_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.2", "home_failed_to_score_rate": "0.2", "away_failed_to_score_rate": "0.4", "home_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_rate": "0.2", "processor_eligible": "1", "source_extraction_score": "0.85", "team_history_score": "1.0", "insights_signal_score": "0.3937", "numeric_sanity_score": "1.0", "processed_signal_score": "0.2", "market_permission_level": "SAFE_MARKETS_ONLY", "data_grade_reason": "cap_mostly_inferred_context|a_cap_no_lineup_low_insights", "fair_odds": "1.66", "recommended_stake": "0", "rationale": "PICK — BRENTWOOD TOWN vs DARTFORD: Over 2.5 @ 2.20\nOUTLOOK — BRENTWOOD TOWN 1.45 expected (about 1 goal; 1-2 plausible) | DARTFORD 1.60 expected (about 2 goals; 1-2 plausible) | Match 3.05 expected (about 3 goals; 2-4 plausible)\nGOAL SOURCE — DARTFORD is the stronger 2+ goal supplier (strong directional confidence).\nWHY — The match is expected to produce about 3 total goals (3.05 average). This pick needs at least 3 total goals.\nLIKELY SUPPORTING SCORES — 1-2, 2-1, 2-2.\nRECENT CTM RECORD — Similar recent CTM Over 2.5 picks: 159/237 won (67%).\nRISK — ELEVATED. Main risk: the match finishes with 0, 1 or 2 total goals.\nVERDICT — BET — Over 2.5 is an approved alternative.", "publish": "1", "publish_reason": "v657_ou25_high_goal_recovery", "grade_limited_release": "0", "live_risk_tag": "clean", "overall_reliability": "0.867", "data_completeness_score": "0.8555", "stats_available": "0", "team_history_available": "1", "context_source_quality": "mostly_inferred_context", "stats_source_quality": "team_history_only", "real_context_count": "0", "inferred_context_count": "5", "trust_tier": "TEAM_HISTORY_PREMATCH", "trust_score": "0.72", "dominance_index": "0.167", "dom_live_index": "0.167", "dom_live_available": "0", "control_index": "0.209", "control_available": "0", "tempo_index": "0.538", "tempo_available": "0", "quality_index": "0.501", "quality_available": "0", "discipline_index": "0.5", "discipline_available": "0", "pressure_index": "0.527", "pressure_available": "0", "variance_risk": "0.479", "h2h_goals_avg": "2.713", "h2h_btts_rate": "0.713", "h2h_confidence": "0.706", "h2h_available": "1", "h2h_sample": "4", "selection_regime_fit": "1.0", "selection_regime_ok": "1", "selection_regime_reason": "regime_ok", "selection_value_boost": "0.729", "raw_expected_home_goals": "1.1632", "raw_expected_away_goals": "1.3534", "expected_home_goals_corrected": "1.3553", "expected_away_goals_corrected": "1.4627", "expected_total_goals_corrected": "2.818", "canonical_home_goal_lambda": "1.3553", "canonical_away_goal_lambda": "1.4627", "canonical_total_goal_lambda": "2.818", "expected_home_goals_calibrated": "1.4534", "expected_away_goals_calibrated": "1.5999", "expected_total_goals_calibrated": "3.0533", "home_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.0981", "away_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.1372", "total_goal_mean_calibration_delta": "0.2353", "home_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "away_goal_mean_calibration_status": "WITHIN_VALIDATED_SUPPORT", "team_goal_mean_direction_guard": "NO_GUARD_NEEDED", "team_goal_mean_calibration_version": "V59_V56_CHRONO_LINEAR_BOUNDED_230_TRAIN_100_HOLDOUT", "team_goal_mean_calibration_applied": "1", "home_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.74213", "home_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.392639", "away_prob_1plus_canonical": "0.76839", "away_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.429614", "match_prob_2plus_canonical": "0.771969", "match_prob_3plus_canonical": "0.534826", "match_prob_4plus_canonical": "0.31207", "lambda_note": "anchor=blend_xg_ctm;dom_sep=A(1.017/0.990);h2h_total_adj=1.020", "lambda_correction_reason": "medium_source_1.00;weak_gap_preserved_and_dampened:0.19;history_piecewise_offset=+0.181", "directional_lambda_trusted": "0", "home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 3, 0, 4]", "home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 3, 1, 3, 0]", "away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 2, 0, 2]", "away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 1, 1, 0, 1]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_scored": "[1, 2, 3, 0, 4]", "sofa_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[2, 3, 1, 3, 0]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 2, 0, 2]", "sofa_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[3, 1, 1, 0, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_scored": "[2, 0, 4, 2, 1]", "api_home_recent_goals_conceded": "[0, 5, 3, 3, 2]", "api_away_recent_goals_scored": "[0, 2, 2, 4, 3]", "api_away_recent_goals_conceded": "[1, 3, 2, 0, 2]", "home_recent_goal_n": "5", "away_recent_goal_n": "5", "home_recent_goal_avg": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_avg": "1.2", "home_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "away_recent_goal_median": "2.0", "home_recent_goal_std": "1.414", "away_recent_goal_std": "0.98", "home_recent_blank_rate": "0.2", "away_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "home_recent_1plus_rate": "0.8", "away_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "home_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "away_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "home_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "away_scoring_spike_share": "0.333", "max_scoring_spike_share": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_blank_rate": "0.4", "weak_side_recent_1plus_rate": "0.6", "weak_side_recent_2plus_rate": "0.6", "goal_floor_score": "0.673", "goal_floor_status": "PASS", "goal_floor_hard_block": "0", "goal_floor_reasons": "WEAK_SIDE_BLANK_RATE_GE_40", "second_goal_security": "0.614", "second_goal_route_count": "2", "home_1plus_route": "0.8", "away_1plus_route": "0.6", "home_2plus_route": "0.2", "away_2plus_route": "0.6", "btts_1plus_route": "0.693", "one_sided_goal_dependency": "0.2", "zero_zero_resistance": "0.717", "home_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.98", "away_recent_score_source_agreement": "0.75", "home_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.87", "away_recent_concede_source_agreement": "0.86", "recent_history_source_agreement": "0.865", "recent_history_source_conflict": "0", "home_gf_source_gap": "0.063", "away_gf_source_gap": "0.313", "home_ga_source_gap": "0.374", "away_ga_source_gap": "0.25", "max_team_history_source_gap": "0.374", "independent_evidence_count": "5", "independent_evidence_groups": "CROSS_PROVIDER_HISTORY_AGREEMENT|DIRECTIONAL_SCORING_CONCEDING_ROUTES|MARKET_ODDS|OBSERVED_H2H|RECENT_TEAM_SCORE_SEQUENCES", "derived_context_non_independent": "1", "xg_evidence_class": "CTM_HISTORY_FUSED", "xg_independent_evidence": "0", "ou15_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou15_xg_market_support": "0.826", "ou15_combined_market_support": "0.806", "ou25_recent_market_rate": "0.8", "ou25_xg_market_support": "0.626", "ou25_combined_market_support": "0.748", "ou35_recent_market_rate": "0.4", "ou15_long_history_market_rate": "", "ou25_long_history_market_rate": "", "long_history_market_rate_source": "UNAVAILABLE_IN_CURRENT_RAW_SCHEMA", "processor_version": "ctm_processor_v10_team_performance_shadow_20261012", "home_team": "BRENTWOOD TOWN", "away_team": "DARTFORD", "ctm_final_source": "BLENDED_SOFA_PRIMARY_API_CONFIRMED", "ctm_primary_stats_source": "sofa", "ctm_context_source": "sofa", "ctm_source_agreement": "both_available", "ctm_source_conflict_reason": "NO_CONFLICT_REPORTED", "sofa_row_found": "1", "api_row_found": "1", "sofa_source_score": "1.0", "api_source_score": "1.0", "processing_status": "OK", "processing_error": "NONE", "home_attack_ratio": "1.103", "away_attack_ratio": "1.116", "home_defense_ratio": "0.773", "away_defense_ratio": "1.812", "home_form_ratio": "1.067", "away_form_ratio": "0.768", "home_defense_form_ratio": "0.993", "away_defense_form_ratio": "1.279", "home_momentum": "1.2", "away_momentum": "1.4", "home_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "away_clean_sheet_recent": "0.2", "home_rest_days": "3", "away_rest_days": "3", "h2h_source": "blended_sofa_api_h2h", "h2h_raw_present": "1", "h2h_provenance_verified": "1", "h2h_provenance_status": "VERIFIED_PROVIDER", "h2h_goals_avg_observed": "2.7128851652994865", "h2h_goals_proxy_estimated": "", "h2h_goals_value_type": "OBSERVED", "h2h_sofa_available": "1", "h2h_sofa_sample": "3.0", "h2h_sofa_goals_avg": "2.6666666666666665", "h2h_sofa_btts_rate": "0.6666666666666666", "h2h_sofa_confidence": "0.4511883639059735", "h2h_api_available": "1", "h2h_api_sample": "4.0", "h2h_api_goals_avg": "2.75", "h2h_api_btts_rate": "0.75", "h2h_api_confidence": "0.486582880967408", "h2h_source_count": "2", "h2h_goals_agreement": "0.9722222222222222", "h2h_btts_agreement": "0.9166666666666666", "h2h_cross_source_agreement": "0.9444444444444444", "h2h_disagreement_flag": "0", "h2h_effective_sample": "4.992", "h2h_blend_method": "confidence_x_sqrt_sample", "h2h_trust_sample": "4", "h2h_trust_basis": "MAX_VERIFIED_PROVIDER_SAMPLE", "h2h_threshold_crossed_by_blend": "0", "dominance_live_index": "0.167", "dominance_live_available": "0", "tempo_inferred_available": "1", "quality_inferred_available": "1", "discipline_inferred_available": "0", "control_inferred_available": "1", "pressure_inferred_available": "1", "dominance_live_inferred_available": "1", "dom_live_inferred_available": "1", "tempo_usable": "1", "quality_usable": "1", "discipline_usable": "0", "control_usable": "1", "pressure_usable": "1", "dominance_live_usable": "1", "dom_live_usable": "1", "prematch_context_available": "1", "prematch_context_count": "5", "prematch_context_quality": "STRONG_TWO_TEAM_INFERRED_CONTEXT", "tempo_source": "inferred", "quality_source": "inferred", "discipline_source": "missing", "control_source": "inferred", "pressure_source": "inferred", "dominance_live_source": "inferred", "dom_live_source": "inferred", "injury_load": "0.0", "injuries_available": "0", "lineup_ready": "0", "lineup_support_score": "0.0", "xg_home_expected": "1.247", "xg_away_expected": "1.428", "xg_total_expected": "2.676", "xg_home_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_away_source": "ctm_lambda+own_gf_ctm_history+opp_ga_ctm_history", "xg_home_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_away_quality": "history_fused_xg", "xg_support_quality": "history_fused", "xg_inflation_vs_ctm": "0.106", "sofascore_order_status": "normal", "stats_home_away_trusted_raw": "1", "stats_order_reversed_raw": "0", "statistics_direct_home_away_ignored": "", "xg_parser_already_flipped": "0", "xg_direct_stats_ignored": "0", "goal_gap": "0.181", "market_home_win_prob": "0.334", "market_draw_prob": "0.273", "market_away_win_prob": "0.392", "market_over_2_5_prob": "0.426", "api_reliability": "1.0", "sofa_reliability": "1.0", "data_quality_score": "1.0", "prediction_confidence": "0.786", "league_data_tier": "NORMAL", "both_teams_usable": "1", "verification_mode": "exact_event_api_first", "verification_warning": "SofaScore rendered SPA was bypassed; API data only", "home_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "away_data_quality": "EXCELLENT", "home_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "away_matches_analyzed": "20.0", "home_effective_matches": "20.0", "away_effective_matches": "20.0", "home_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "away_form_matches_analyzed": "5.0", "home_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "away_matches_sample_source": "HISTORICAL_MATCHES_ANALYZED", "home_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.812", "away_goals_scored_avg": "1.562", "away_goals_conceded_avg": "0.938", "home_form_avg_scored": "2.0", "home_form_avg_conceded": "1.8", "away_form_avg_scored": "1.2", "away_form_avg_conceded": "1.2", "league_avg_home_scoring": "1.7", "league_avg_away_scoring": "1.4", "home_sample_strength": "0.713", "away_sample_strength": "0.713", "form_sample_strength": "0.465", "home_recent_gf_avg": "2.0", "home_recent_ga_avg": "1.8", "away_recent_gf_avg": "1.2", "away_recent_ga_avg": "1.2", "home_scoring_std": "1.414", "away_scoring_std": "0.98", "home_conceding_std": "1.166", "away_conceding_std": "0.98", "match_goal_volatility": "1.135", "home_score_consistency": "0.192", "away_score_consistency": "0.44", "home_over15_rate": "1.0", "away_over15_rate": "0.6", "home_over25_rate": "1.0", "away_over25_rate": "0.6", "home_over35_rate": "0.6", "away_over35_rate": "0.2", "home_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "away_btts_rate_recent": "0.6", "home_attack_trend": "0.125", "away_attack_trend": "-0.362", "home_defense_trend": "-0.012", "away_defense_trend": "0.262", "home_defense_improvement": "0.012", "away_defense_improvement": "-0.262", "attack_ratio_gap": "-0.013", "defense_ratio_gap": "-1.04", "form_attack_gap": "0.298", "form_defense_gap": "0.286", "historical_goal_balance": "-0.281", "ctm_home_win_prob": "0.334", "ctm_draw_prob": "0.275", "ctm_away_win_prob": "0.392", "ctm_over_2_5_prob": "0.436", "ctm_market_home_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_draw_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_away_gap": "0.001", "ctm_market_over25_gap": "0.01", "historical_evidence_coverage": "1.0", "missing_evidence_penalty": "0.0", "processor_rejection_code": "NONE", "home_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "away_history_sample_status": "USABLE", "h2h_status": "USABLE", "h2h_usable_for_prediction": "1", "h2h_support_score": "0.297", "h2h_uncertainty_penalty": "0.0", "h2h_direct_scores": "1-0 | 3-2 | 1-1", "h2h_direct_dates": "2026-08-11 | 2026-01-31 | 2025-10-11", "h2h_direct_scores_json": "[\"1-0\", \"3-2\", \"1-1\"]", "h2h_direct_dates_json": "[\"2026-08-11\", \"2026-01-31\", \"2025-10-11\"]", "h2h_recent_scores_sample_json": "[\"1-0\", \"3-2\", \"1-1\"]", "h2h_over_15_rate": "0.667", "h2h_over_25_rate": "0.333", "h2h_over_35_rate": "0.333", "home_last3_blank_rate": "0.0", "away_last3_blank_rate": "0.333", "home_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "away_max_blank_streak": "1.0", "max_recent_scoring_std": "1.414", "sofa_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "sofa_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.812", "sofa_away_goals_scored_avg": "1.562", "sofa_away_goals_conceded_avg": "0.938", "api_home_goals_scored_avg": "1.938", "api_home_goals_conceded_avg": "1.438", "api_away_goals_scored_avg": "1.875", "api_away_goals_conceded_avg": "1.188", "ou35_xg_market_support": "0.058", "ou35_combined_market_support": "0.304", "best_second_goal_route": "0.693", "second_best_goal_route": "0.6", "third_second_goal_route": "0.2", "real_context_evidence_count": "0", "inferred_context_evidence_count": "5", "h2h_direct_meetings_count": "3.0", "standings_fixture_relegation_profile": "HOME_RELEGATION_PART", "standings_any_team_in_relegation_part": "1.0", "context_away_away_form_avg_total_goals": "2.666667", "context_away_away_form_blank_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_btts_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_clean_sheet_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_conceded_2plus_rate": "0.333333", "context_away_away_form_draws": "1.0", "context_away_away_form_goals_against_per_game": "0.833333", "context_away_away_form_goals_for_per_game": "1.833333", "context_away_away_form_last_match_date": "2026-10-17", "context_away_away_form_losses": "2.0", "context_away_away_form_low_total_01_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_one_goal_total_rate": "0.0", "context_away_away_form_over_15_rate": "1.0", "context_away_away_form_over_25_rate": "0.666667", "context_away_away_form_points_per_game": "1.666667", "context_away_away_form_recent_results_json": "[\"L\", \"L\", \"W\", \"W\", \"W\", \"D\"]", "context_away_away_form_recent_scores_json": "[\"1-2\", \"1-2\", \"3-0\", \"2-0\", \"3-0\", \"1-1\"]", "context_away_away_form_sample_count": "6.0", "context_away_away_form_scored_2plus_rate": "0.5", "context_away_away_form_wins": "3.0", "context_away_matches_last_14d": "3.0", "context_away_matches_last_7d": "1.0", "context_away_recent_events_json": "[{\"event_id\": \"16596324\", \"start_timestamp\": 1792245600, \"date\": \"2026-10-17\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"AFC Whyteleafe\", \"tournament\": \"Isthmian League, Premier Division\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"1131\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16596316\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791640800, \"date\": \"2026-10-10\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 2, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Wingate & Finchley\", \"tournament\": \"Isthmian League, Premier Division\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"1131\"}, {\"event_id\": \"16596303\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791312300, \"date\": \"2026-10-06\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Ramsgate FC\", \"tournament\": \"Isthmian League, Premier Division\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"1131\"}, {\"event_id\": \"17160374\", \"start_timestamp\": 1791036000, \"date\": \"2026-10-03\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 1, \"goals_against\": 2, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"L\", \"opponent\": \"Tadley Calleva FC\", \"tournament\": \"FA Cup\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"19\"}, {\"event_id\": \"17148885\", \"start_timestamp\": 1790707500, \"date\": \"2026-09-29\", \"is_home\": 1, \"goals_for\": 2, \"goals_against\": 1, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Whitehawk\", \"tournament\": \"Isthmian League, Premier Division\", \"unique_tournament_id\": \"1131\"}, {\"event_id\": \"17102744\", \"start_timestamp\": 1790431200, \"date\": \"2026-09-26\", \"is_home\": 0, \"goals_for\": 3, \"goals_against\": 0, \"total_goals\": 3, \"result\": \"W\", \"opponent\": \"Leiston\", \"tournament\": 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VALUE", "ticket_risk_label": "ELEVATED", "ticket_short_why": "Calibrated support profile; lower priority than mature Main anchors", "ticket_use_audit": "SECONDARY_TRACK_ONLY:PROVISIONAL_SUPPORT_ONLY", "v61_quality_cap_reason": "", "acca_rank_in_match": "1", "same_match_alternative": "0", "best_picks_publication_pass": "1", "ticket_selection_assertion_failure": "", "ticket_selection_assertion_pass": "0", "v652_production_safety_pass": "1", "v652_production_safety_reason": "PASS", "v652_one_goal_score_risk": "0.0", "v652_recent_low_total_risk": "0.0", "v652_one_goal_lock_risk": "0.0", "v652_confirmed_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_derived_relegation_risk": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h": "0.0", "v652_missing_h2h_substitute_pass": "1.0", "v655_ou15_warning_count": "0.0", "v655_ou15_warning_reason": "", "v655_ou15_combined_warning_block": "0.0", "v655_ou15_missing_h2h_downgrade": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_warning_count": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_structural_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_lock_warning": "0.0", "v656_ou25_expansion_h2h_warning": "0.0", "v655_terminal_policy": "O1.5_COMBINED_WARNINGS_OU25_EXPANSION_WARNING_AWARE", "v657_terminal_override_used": "", "v657_terminal_override_reason": "", "v656_final_authority_pass": "1", "v656_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v656_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v656_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v657_final_authority_pass": "1", "v657_final_decision_state": "EXECUTABLE_ALTERNATIVE", "v657_final_authority_reason": "PASSED_V65_7_RECOVERY_AND_TERMINAL_SAFETY", "v657_final_authority_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "v6584_ticket_track_reconciled": "1", "v6584_ticket_track_version": "V65_8_9_VALUE_ALIGNED_MAIN", "publication_reliability_score": "0.679116", "publication_h2h_rank_penalty": "0.0", "publication_value_priority": "0.561927", "publication_rank_score": "0.646303", "publication_rank_meaning": "QUALIFIED_EVIDENCE_RELIABILITY_72_VALUE_28_PROBABILITY_TIEBREAK_ONLY", "publication_rank_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "rank_stage": "after_execution_contract_quarantine", "rank_status": "FINAL_RANKED", "rank": "1", "rank_number": "1", "rank_display": "#1", "publication_rank": "12", "publication_value_rank": "8", "league_market_history_bets": "4", "league_market_history_wins": "4", "league_market_history_losses": "0", "league_market_history_win_rate": "1.0", "league_market_history_profit": "40.2", "league_market_history_roi": "1.005", "league_market_history_sample_strength": "VERY SMALL SAMPLE", "reliability_role": "CORE", "value_role": "GOOD VALUE", "profile_similarity_score": "0.697865", "reader_data_quality_grade": "C", "reader_data_quality_status": "MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED", "reader_data_quality_summary": "real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only", "high_win_profile_pass": "0.0", "high_win_profile_status": "STANDARD", "high_win_profile_name": "O2.5_V57_STRUCTURAL_ROUTE", "high_win_profile_reference_wins": "39.0", "high_win_profile_reference_bets": "55.0", "high_win_profile_reference_rate": "0.7090909090909091", "high_win_profile_sample_strength": "ESTABLISHED SAMPLE", "high_win_profile_reason": "O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract.", "high_win_profile_version": "V56_SETTLED_REFERENCE_20260831_V60_AUDIT_INTEGRITY_V1", "current_reliability_score": "0.673404", "current_reliability_label": "MODERATE", "high_win_candidate_pass": "0.0", "high_win_candidate_status": "STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE", "high_win_candidate_reason": "No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile.", "high_win_candidate_version": "V60_HISTORICAL_PLUS_CURRENT_QUALITY_V1", "rationale_audit": "PICK — Over 2.5 match goals @ 2.20. | TICKET — live use STRONG SUPPORT; quality CORE; risk ELEVATED; reliability role CORE; value role GOOD VALUE; final state PUBLISHED. | PREDICTION — model win probability 60%; reliability score 67%; profile similarity 70/100 (similarity only, not win probability). | DATA QUALITY — Grade C (MODERATE / HISTORY-SUPPORTED); real prematch statistics unavailable; team-history supported; context mostly inferred; stats source team history only. | EXPECTED GOALS — BRENTWOOD TOWN 1.45 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.36), DARTFORD 1.60 (calibrated expected goals; canonical λ 1.46), match 3.05 (calibrated Home + Away). Team scoring chances from the same calibrated goal means: BRENTWOOD TOWN 1+ 77% / 2+ 43%; DARTFORD 1+ 80% / 2+ 48%. Match: 2+ 81%, 3+ 59%, 4+ 36%; central goal band 2-4 goals. | SCORE SHAPE — highest single Poisson mode 1-1 (11%). This mode comes from the same outcome-calibrated Home/Away goal means. It is a low-confidence score-shape descriptor, not an exact-score target; the calibrated goal means, goal band and 1+/2+ probabilities carry more weight. | GOAL SUPPLIER — AWAY / DARTFORD, STRONG; BRENTWOOD TOWN 2+ 43% vs DARTFORD 2+ 48%; supplier gap 5pp; supplier reliability 73%; direction trusted. | MARKET EVIDENCE — Goal Floor PASS; second-goal security 61%; recent O2.5 support 80%; third-goal route 60% (PASS_EVIDENCE). | HISTORICAL HIGH-WIN PROFILE — STANDARD; comparable structural reference 39/55 wins (70.9%), ESTABLISHED SAMPLE. O2.5 has an established structural reference, but this row does not pass the full V61 O2.5 contract. | CURRENT HIGH-WIN STATUS — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE; current reliability 67% (MODERATE). No mature market-specific high-win reference applies to this current profile. | LEAGUE + MARKET — Isthmian League, Pr. Div / OU OVER 2.5: 4-0 from 4 settled published CTM picks (100%, ROI +100.5%); very small sample. | VALUE — GOOD VALUE; relative value score 56%. Value describes the price/expression after football qualification; it does not override a weak prediction. | RISK — weaker side blanked 40% recently. | VERDICT — STANDARD QUALIFIED PROFILE / CORE / GOOD VALUE. Value frontier: Not Qualified; settled synthetic-price curve n=704, win rate 61%, synthetic ROI 28%; value alternative; recommended market OU OVER 2.5. Synthetic ROI ranks supported market expressions and is not treated as bookmaker EV.\nSELECTION AUDIT: Football=BLOCK (OU25_THIRD_GOAL_ROUTE_NOT_PROVED); Time=UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE (UPCOMING_PREMATCH); Portfolio=PROVISIONAL_RECOVERY_ALTERNATIVE (V65_8_6_RECOVERY_EXECUTABLE_BUT_NOT_CALIBRATED_MAIN); Final=PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY (PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE).", "v65_goal_away_bias": "0.0", "v65_score_outlook_confidence": "LOW", "v65_goal_base_total": "3.0533", "v65_goal_calibrated_total": "3.0533", "v65_goal_calibrated_away": "1.5999", "v65_central_score_probability": "0.1097606455550628", "v65_central_score": "1-1", "v65_goal_home_bias": "0.0", "v65_home_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibration_status": "BASE_VALIDATED_RESIDUAL_AUDIT_ONLY", "v65_goal_base_home": "1.4534", "v65_goal_candidate_away_bias": "-0.0063204431905013", "v65_goal_candidate_home_bias": "0.0452579086580849", "v65_goal_calibration_sample": "297", "v65_alternative_scores": "1-2, 2-1", "v65_top3_score_probability": "0.2773267350916996", "v65_away_goal_range_low": "1", "v65_goal_calibrated_home": "1.4534", "v65_home_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_low": "2", "v65_goal_outlook_method": "V59_CALIBRATED_MEANS_PLUS_BOUNDED_CHRONOLOGICAL_RESIDUAL", "v65_goal_base_away": "1.5999", "v65_away_goal_range_high": "2", "v65_match_goal_range_high": "4", "final_decision_pass": "1", "final_decision_stage": "V63_MARKET_SPECIFIC_FOOTBALL_TIME_PRICE_PORTFOLIO_AUDIT", "final_decision_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "final_contract_version": "V69_LIVE_MULTISIGNAL_PREMATCH_CONTEXT", "ticket_classification_scope": "LIVE_FINAL_TICKET", "time_eligibility_status": "UPCOMING_ELIGIBLE", "time_eligibility_reason": "UPCOMING_PREMATCH", "final_publication_status": "PUBLISHED_FOR_DISPLAY", "final_publication_reason": "PUBLISHED_SUPPORTED_ALTERNATIVE", "ticket_quality_class_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_quality_class_pre_v61_internal": "SECONDARY", "ticket_use_internal": "SECONDARY VALUE", "performance_class_note": "PUBLIC_CORE_LABEL_FROM_FORMER_SECONDARY; structural ticket-track policy remains separate", "performance_class_label_version": "V65_8_5_SECONDARY_TO_CORE_PUBLIC_LABEL_SWAP", "performance_class_label_swap_applied": "1", "market_confidence_band_prepublication": "WATCH", "market_confidence_final_state": "PUBLISHED_VIA_OTHER_AUTHORITY", "market_confidence_final_reason": "PASS_V65_3_OU25_EVIDENCE_EXPANSION" } ]